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Impact of higher-order uncertainty

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  • Weinstein, Jonathan
  • Yildiz, Muhamet

Abstract

In some games, the impact of higher-order uncertainty is very large, implying that present economic theories may be misleading as these theories assume common knowledge of the type structure after specifying the first or the second orders of beliefs. Focusing on normal-form games in which the players' strategy spaces are compact metric spaces, we show that our key condition, called "global stability under uncertainty," implies a variety of results to the effect that the impact of higher-order uncertainty is small. Our central result states that, under global stability, the maximum change in equilibrium strategies due to changes in players' beliefs at orders higher than k is exponentially decreasing in k. Therefore, given any need for precision, we can approximate equilibrium strategies by specifying only finitely many orders of beliefs

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Games and Economic Behavior.

Volume (Year): 60 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 200-212

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Handle: RePEc:eee:gamebe:v:60:y:2007:i:1:p:200-212

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622836

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Friedenberg, Amanda, 2010. "When do type structures contain all hierarchies of beliefs?," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 108-129, January.
  2. Davide Cianciaruso & Fabrizio Germano, 2011. "Quotient Spaces of Boundedly Rational Types," Discussion Papers 1539, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  3. Rong, Kang, 2013. "Impact of second-order uncertainty on the efficiency of the 0.5-double auction," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 67-71.
  4. Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris, 2009. "Robust Implementation in Direct Mechanisms," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(4), pages 1175-1204.
  5. Heinsalu, Sander, 2014. "Universal type structures with unawareness," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 255-266.
  6. Qin, Cheng-Zhong & Yang, Chun-Lei, 2013. "Finite-order type spaces and applications," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 689-719.
  7. Weinstein, Jonathan & Yildiz, Muhamet, 2011. "Sensitivity of equilibrium behavior to higher-order beliefs in nice games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 288-300, May.
  8. Qin, Cheng-Zhong & Yang, Chun-Lei, 2009. "An Explicit Approach to Modeling Finite-Order Type Spaces and Applications," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt8hq7j89k, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  9. Kets, Willemien, 2011. "Robustness of equilibria in anonymous local games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 300-325, January.
  10. Esponda, Ignacio, 2013. "Rationalizable conjectural equilibrium: A framework for robust predictions," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(2), May.
  11. Amanda Friedenberg & Martin Meier, 2011. "On the relationship between hierarchy and type morphisms," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 377-399, April.

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