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Optimal Monetary Policy For Postwar Iraq

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  • Bedri Kamil Onur Tas

    () (TOBB ETU Department of Economics)

  • Selahattin Togay

Abstract

This paper theoretically investigates the optimal monetary policy regime for post-war Iraq. We analyze the macroeconomic dynamics (inflation, output and exchange rate) and the credibility and reputation of the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) under alternative monetary policy regimes. We construct a detailed and realistic model that can be used to analyze the macroeconomic structure and expectation dynamics of an oil-producing, open economy. The simulation results indicate that an independent central bank with inflation targeting achieves credibility and reputation. The model constructed in this paper can be used to investigate more oil producing open countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economic Research Forum in its series Working Papers with number 488.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: May 2009
Date of revision: May 2009
Publication status: Published by The Economic Research Forum (ERF)
Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:488

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  1. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy under Asymmetric Information," Seminar Papers 689, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  2. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
  3. Sebastian Edwards & I. Igal Magendzo, 2002. "Dollarization and Economic Performance: What Do we Really Know?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 175, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Jon Faust & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1998. "Transparency and credibility: monetary policy with unobservable goals," International Finance Discussion Papers 605, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Aoki, Kosuke, 2002. "Optimal Commitment Policy Under Noisy Information," CEPR Discussion Papers 3370, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Marvin Goodfriend, 1990. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Working Paper 90-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  8. Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane Ihrig, 2001. "Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers 704, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Townsend, Robert M, 1983. "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 546-88, August.
  10. Lawrence H. Summers, 2000. "International Financial Crises: Causes, Prevention, and Cures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 1-16, May.
  11. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2005. "Contractionary Currency Crashes In Developing Countries," Working Paper Series rwp05-017, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  12. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2003. "The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Herrendorf, Berthold, 1999. "Transparency, reputation, and credibility under floating and pegged exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 31-50, October.
  14. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
  15. Brad Setser, 2007. "The Case for Exchange Rate Flexibility in Oil-Exporting Economies," Policy Briefs PB07-8, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  16. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saiki, Ayako, 2002. "A Proposal to Anchor Monetary Policy by the Price of the Export Commodity," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 17, pages 417-448.
  17. Rautava, Jouko, 2004. "The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia's economy--a cointegration approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 315-327, June.
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