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Higher-order uncertainty in financial markets: evidence from a consensus pricing service

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  • Ergun, Lerby
  • Uthemann, Andreas

Abstract

We assess the ability of an information aggregation mechanism that operates in the over-the-counter market for financial derivatives to reduce valuation uncertainty among market participants. The analysis is based on a unique dataset of price estimates for S&P 500 index options that major financial institutions provide to a consensus pricing service. We consider two dimensions of uncertainty: uncertainty about fundamental asset values and strategic uncertainty about competitors' valuations. Through structural estimation, we obtain empirical measures of fundamental and strategic uncertainty that are based on market participants' posterior beliefs. We show that the main contribution of the consensus pricing service is to reduce its subscribers' uncertainty about competitors' valuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ergun, Lerby & Uthemann, Andreas, 2020. "Higher-order uncertainty in financial markets: evidence from a consensus pricing service," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118893, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:118893
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    OTC markets; information aggregation; social learning; strategic uncertainty; consensus pricing; benchmarks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C59 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Other
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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