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Optimal Monetary Policy for Postwar Iraq

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  • Bedri Kamil Onur Tas
  • Selahattin Togay

Abstract

This paper theoretically investigates the optimal monetary policy regime for post-war Iraq. We analyze the macroeconomic dynamics (inflation, output and exchange rate) and the credibility and reputation of the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) under alternative monetary policy regimes. We construct a detailed and realistic model that can be used to analyze the macroeconomic structure and expectation dynamics of an oil-producing, open economy. The simulation results indicate that an independent central bank with inflation targeting achieves credibility and reputation. The model constructed in this paper can be used to investigate more oil producing open countries.

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Paper provided by TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0813.

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Date of creation: Sep 2008
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Handle: RePEc:tob:wpaper:0813

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  1. Faust, Jon & Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Transparency and Credibility: Monetary Policy with Unobservable Goals," CEPR Discussion Papers 1852, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Rautava, Jouko, 2004. "The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia's economy--a cointegration approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 315-327, June.
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2005. "Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 11508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane Ihrig, 2001. "Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers 704, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
  6. Aoki, Kosuke, 2006. "Optimal commitment policy under noisy information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 81-109, January.
  7. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy under Asymmetric Information," Seminar Papers 689, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  8. Lawrence H. Summers, 2000. "International Financial Crises: Causes, Prevention, and Cures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 1-16, May.
  9. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
  10. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1991. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 7-30, January.
  11. Herrendorf, Berthold, 1999. "Transparency, reputation, and credibility under floating and pegged exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 31-50, October.
  12. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
  13. Townsend, Robert M, 1983. "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 546-88, August.
  14. Sebastian Edwards & I. Igal Magendzo, 2002. "Dollarization and Economic Performance: What Do We Really Know?," Working Papers 65, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  15. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saiki, Ayako, 2002. "A Proposal to Anchor Monetary Policy by the Price of the Export Commodity," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 17, pages 417-448.
  16. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2003. "The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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