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The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2022. "Lower for longer under endogenous technology growth," Working Paper Series 2714, European Central Bank.
  2. Bofinger, Peter & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Wieland, Volker, 2018. "Vor wichtigen wirtschaftspolitischen Weichenstellungen. Jahresgutachten 2018/19 [Setting the Right Course for Economic Policy. Annual Report 2018/19]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201819, January.
  3. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_021 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Hoffmann, Timo, 2023. "Vorschläge zur Modifikation der Potenzialschätzung der Bundesregierung im Vergleich," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 45, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  5. Breuer Sebastian & Elstner Steffen, 2020. "Germany’s Growth Prospects against the Backdrop of Demographic Change," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 240(5), pages 565-605, October.
  6. N. Cordemans & J. Wauters, 2018. "Are inflation and economic activity out of sync in the euro area?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 79-96, June.
  7. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  8. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 686-704, October.
  9. Benchimol, Jonathan & Bounader, Lahcen, 2023. "Optimal monetary policy under bounded rationality," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  10. Pierre Aldama & Jérôme Creel, 2020. "Asymmetric Macroeconomic Stabilization And Fiscal Consolidation In The Oecd And The Euro Area," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403071, HAL.
  11. Jordi Galí, 2015. "Insider-outsider labor markets, hysteresis and monetary policy," Economics Working Papers 1506, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2020.
  12. Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2019. "Endogenous TFP, business cycle persistence and the productivity slowdown," Research Discussion Papers 21/2019, Bank of Finland.
  13. Larch, Martin & Cugnasca, Alessandro & Kumps, Diederik & Orseau, Eloïse, 2019. "Fiscal policy and the assessment of output gaps in real time: An exercise in risk management," ZEW Discussion Papers 19-013, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  14. Panovska, Irina & Ramamurthy, Srikanth, 2022. "Decomposing the output gap with inflation learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  15. Francesco Furlanetto & Antoine Lepetit & Ørjan Robstad & Juan Rubio-Ramírez & Pål Ulvedal, 2025. "Estimating Hysteresis Effects," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-70, January.
  16. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2022. "Lower for longer under endogenous technology growth," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2022, Bank of Finland.
  17. Mario Alloza & Jesús Gonzalo & Carlos Sanz, 2025. "Dynamic Effects of Persistent Shocks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 380-394, June.
  18. Pablo Burriel & Víctor González-Díez & Jorge Martínez-Pagés & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2021. "Real-time analysis of the revisions to the structural position of public finances," Occasional Papers 2108, Banco de España.
  19. Croushore, Dean & van Norden, Simon, 2019. "Fiscal Surprises at the FOMC," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1583-1595.
  20. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2019. "An investigation of the exchange rate pass-through in the Baltic states," CAMA Working Papers 2019-60, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  21. Oscar Jorda & Alan Taylor & Sanjay Singh, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 1307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  22. K tay G bor & Kerdelhu Lisa & Lequien Matthieu, 2020. "Semi-Structural VAR and Unobserved Components Models to Estimate Finance-Neutral Output Gap," Working papers 791, Banque de France.
  23. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6gjj4t61tm90aauv9v241g1u29 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "Monitoring the Economy in Real Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices," Papers 2201.05556, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
  25. Ginters Bušs & Patrick Grüning & Oļegs Tkačevs, 2024. "Choosing the European fiscal rule," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 116-144.
  26. Regis Barnichon & Geert Mesters, 2020. "Identifying Modern Macro Equations with Old Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(4), pages 2255-2298.
  27. James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Estimating and accounting for the output gap with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 1-18, January.
  28. Peter Flaschel & Sigrid Luchtenberg & Hagen Kramer & Christian Proano & Mark Setterfield, 2021. "Contemporary Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Tragedy in Three Acts," Working Papers 2105, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
  29. Canova, Fabio, 2020. "FAQ: How do I extract the output gap?," Working Paper Series 386, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  30. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 31 May 2024.
  31. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5a3rl1um0d9rdbe3itnk6f8m89 is not listed on IDEAS
  32. Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2019. "Endogenous TFP, business cycle persistence and the productivity slowdown," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2019, Bank of Finland.
  33. Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2020. "Recessions and the Trend in the US Unemployment Rate," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2021(01), pages 1-8, February.
  34. Josefine Quast & Maik H. Wolters, 2022. "Reliable Real-Time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 152-168, January.
  35. Ichiro Fukunaga & Yoshihiko Hogen & Yojiro Ito & Kenji Kanai & Satoshi Tsuchida, 2024. "Potential Growth in Japan: Issues on Its Relationship with Prices and Wages," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-16, Bank of Japan.
  36. Iana Paliova, 2021. "Bulgaria’s Fiscal Sustainability and Policy Response to the COVID-19 Outbreak," Global Economic Observer, "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences;Institute for World Economy of the Romanian Academy, vol. 9(1), pages 31-38, June.
  37. Weiske, Sebastian, 2018. "Indicator-based estimates of the output gap in the euro area," Working Papers 12/2018, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
  38. Benchimol, Jonathan & Fourçans, André, 2019. "Central bank losses and monetary policy rules: A DSGE investigation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 289-303.
  39. Francesca Vinci & Omar Licandro, 2020. "Switching-track after the Great Recession," Discussion Papers 2020/02, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  40. Giovanna Ciaffi & Matteo Deleidi & Michele Capriati, 2024. "Government spending, multipliers, and public debt sustainability: an empirical assessment for OECD countries," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(2), pages 521-542, July.
  41. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2020. "Endogenous TFP, business cycle persistence and the productivity slowdown in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2401, European Central Bank.
  42. Marek Jarociński & Michele Lenza, 2018. "An Inflation‐Predicting Measure of the Output Gap in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1224, September.
  43. Antonio Fatás, 2019. "Fiscal Policy, Potential Output, and the Shifting Goalposts," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 684-702, September.
  44. Garga, Vaishali & Singh, Sanjay R., 2021. "Output hysteresis and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 871-886.
  45. Burger, John D. & Warnock, Francis E. & Warnock, Veronica Cacdac, 2022. "A natural level of capital flows," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-16.
  46. Ortega, Eva & Osbat, Chiara, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through in the euro area and EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 241, European Central Bank.
  47. Sébastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2018. "Some Thoughts and Proposals Concerning the Concept of Output Gap [Réflexions et suggestions autour du concept d’output gap]," Post-Print hal-02335667, HAL.
  48. Ms. Burcu Hacibedel & Pierre Mandon & Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora & Nathalie Pouokam, 2019. "Inequality in Good and Bad Times: A Cross-Country Approach," IMF Working Papers 2019/020, International Monetary Fund.
  49. Andrew Glover & Jose Mustre-del-Rio & Emily Pollard, 2021. "KC Fed LMCI Suggests Recent Inflation Is Not Due to the Tight Labor Market," Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue October 2, pages 1-4, October.
  50. Fatás, Antonio & Singh, Sanjay R., 2024. "Supply or demand? Policy makers’ confusion in the presence of hysteresis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
  51. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Mauricio Ulate, 2019. "Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 465-469, May.
  52. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert, 2018. "Monetary policy with transitory vs. permanently low growth," Working Papers hal-03404318, HAL.
  53. Jonas Dovern & Christopher Zuber, 2020. "Recessions and Potential Output: Disentangling Measurement Errors, Supply Shocks, and Hysteresis Effects," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(4), pages 1431-1466, October.
  54. Remzi Baris Tercioglu, 2020. "A sectoral approach to measuring output gap: Evidence from 20 US sectors over 1948-2019," Working Papers 2012, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2021.
  55. Durand, Luigi & Fornero, Jorge Alberto, 2024. "Estimating the output gap in times of COVID-19," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(4).
  56. Aldama, Pierre & Creel, Jérôme, 2022. "Real-time fiscal policy responses in the OECD from 1997 to 2018: Procyclical but sustainable?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  57. Michael O’Grady, 2019. "Estimating the Output, Inflation and Unemployment Gaps in Ireland using Bayesian Model Averaging," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 35-76.
  58. Sarah Fischer & Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski & Philipp Wegmüller, 2024. "Assessing the Potential Output for Switzerland: Determinants, Trends and Drivers," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 20(2), pages 297-338, July.
  59. Tóth, Máté, 2021. "A multivariate unobserved components model to estimate potential output in the euro area: a production function based approach," Working Paper Series 2523, European Central Bank.
  60. Nataliia Ostapenko, 2022. "Do output gap estimates improve inflation forecasts in Slovakia?," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2022, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
  61. Arai, Natsuki, 2020. "Investigating the inefficiency of the CBO’s budgetary projections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1290-1300.
  62. Arai, Natsuki, 2023. "The FOMC’s new individual economic projections and macroeconomic theories," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  63. Müller, Gernot & Wolf, Martin & Hettig, Thomas, 2019. "Exchange Rate Undershooting: Evidence and Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 13597, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  64. Bhattarai, Saroj & Schwartzman, Felipe & Yang, Choongryul, 2021. "Local scars of the US housing crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 40-57.
  65. Augustus J. Panton, 2020. "Climate Hysteresis and Monetary Policy," CAMA Working Papers 2020-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  66. Aleksandr Arsenev & Philipp Heimberger & Bernhard Schütz, 2024. "Das konjunkturelle Verhalten der Staatsausgaben für Gesundheit und Soziales in Österreich und Deutschland: Wie robust ist die OECD-Methodik?," wiiw Research Reports in German language 25, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  67. Drago Bergholt & Francesco Furlanetto & Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2023. "Did monetary policy kill the Phillips Curve? Some simple arithmetics," Working Paper 2023/2, Norges Bank.
  68. Francesco Furlanetto & Kåre Hagelund & Frank Hansen & Ørjan Robstad, 2020. "Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability and Cyclical Sensitivity," Working Paper 2020/7, Norges Bank.
  69. Francesco Simone Lucidi, 2023. "The misalignment of fiscal multipliers in Italian regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(10), pages 2073-2086, October.
  70. Canova, Fabio, 2020. "FAQ: How do I measure the Output gap?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14943, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  71. Alloza, Mario & Gonzalo, Jesús & Sanz, Carlos, 2019. "Dynamic Effects of Persistent Shocks," UC3M Working papers. Economics 29187, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
  72. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5a3rl1um0d9rdbe3itnk6f8m89 is not listed on IDEAS
  73. Mr. Shekhar Aiyar & Simon Voigts, 2019. "The Negative Mean Output Gap," IMF Working Papers 2019/183, International Monetary Fund.
  74. Chalmovianský, Jakub & Němec, Daniel, 2022. "Assessing uncertainty of output gap estimates: Evidence from Visegrad countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
  75. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Jaime Martinez-Martin & Eva Ortega, 2022. "Exchange Rate Shocks and Inflation Co-movement in the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 239-275, March.
  76. Dovern, Jonas & Zuber, Christopher, 2020. "How economic crises damage potential output – Evidence from the Great Recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
  77. Jing Lian Suah, 2024. "The "plucking" model of the unemployment rate floor: Corss-country estimates and empirics," BIS Working Papers 1159, Bank for International Settlements.
  78. M. Deroose & A. Rannenberg & J. Wauters, 2019. "Separating the trend from the cycle : The debate on euro area potential output and implications for monetary policy," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 7-28, September.
  79. Mr. Alvar Kangur & Koralai Kirabaeva & Jean-Marc Natal & Simon Voigts, 2019. "How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe?," IMF Working Papers 2019/200, International Monetary Fund.
  80. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2022_006 is not listed on IDEAS
  81. Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2022. "Euro area banking and monetary policy shocks in the QE era," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  82. Omar Licandro & Francesca Vinci, 2021. "Potential output, the Taylor Rule and the Fed," Discussion Papers 2021/03, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  83. Arčabić, Vladimir & Panovska, Irina & Tica, Josip, 2024. "Business cycle synchronization and asymmetry in the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  84. Saroj Bhattarai & Choongryul Yang & Felipe Schwartzman, 2019. "The Persistent Employment E ffects of the 2006-09 U.S. Housing Wealth Collapse," 2019 Meeting Papers 671, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  85. Weiske, Sebastian, 2019. "Indicator-based estimates of the output gap in the euro area," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203604, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  86. Karen L. Pulido-Mahecha & Sergio Restrepo-Ángel & Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez, 2024. "Measuring the Unmeasurable: Unraveling the complexities of real-time output gap estimation," Borradores de Economia 1284, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  87. Richard K. Crump & Nikolay Gospodinov & Hunter Wieman, 2023. "Sparse Trend Estimation," Staff Reports 1049, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  88. Giovanna Ciaffi & Matteo Deleidi & Mariana Mazzucato, 2024. "Measuring the macroeconomic responses to public investment in innovation: evidence from OECD countries," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 33(2), pages 363-382.
  89. Philipp Heimberger, 2020. "Potential Output, EU Fiscal Surveillance and the COVID-19 Shock," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(3), pages 167-174, May.
  90. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Mauricio Ulate, 2017. "Secular Stagnation: Policy Options and the Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output," Working Papers 01/2017, National Bank of Ukraine.
  91. Daniel Gros & Alessandro Liscai & Farzaneh Shamsfakhr, 2022. "Planned Fiscal Consolidation and Under-Estimated Multipliers: Revisiting the Evidence and Relevance for the Euro Area," EconPol Policy Reports 35, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  92. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2022. "Lower for longer under endogenous technology growth," Research Discussion Papers 6/2022, Bank of Finland.
  93. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2021. "Debt-Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 21-14, Bank of Canada.
  94. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920, January.
  95. Thomas Lustenberger, 2018. "Has the American Output Growth Path Experienced a Permanent Change?," Working Papers 2018-14, Swiss National Bank.
  96. Ciaffi, Giovanna & Deleidi, Matteo & Di Domenico, Lorenzo, 2024. "Fiscal policy and public debt: Government investment is most effective to promote sustainability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1186-1209.
  97. Martin Boďa & Mariana Považanová, 2023. "How credible are Okun coefficients? The gap version of Okun’s law for G7 economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1467-1514, June.
  98. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6gjj4t61tm90aauv9v241g1u29 is not listed on IDEAS
  99. Jean-Marc Fournier & Philipp Lieberknecht, 2020. "A Model-based Fiscal Taylor Rule and a Toolkit to Assess the Fiscal Stance," IMF Working Papers 2020/033, International Monetary Fund.
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