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Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading

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Cited by:

  1. Fabrice Rousseau & Herve Boco & Laurent Germain, 2020. "When Overconfident Traders Meet Feedback Traders - Updated from 2016," Economics Department Working Paper Series n270-16.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  2. Ahrens, Steffen & Bosch-Rosa, Ciril & Roulund, Rasmus, 2019. "Price Dynamics and Trader Overconfidence," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 161, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
  3. Conrado Cuevas & Dan Bernhardt & Mario Sanclemente, 2023. "Followers of the pied piper of pensioners," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1517-1550, November.
  4. Chen, Rongda & Wu, Ling & Jin, Chenglu & Wang, Shengnan, 2021. "Unintended investor sentiment on bank financial products: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
  5. Victor Stango & Joanne Yoong & Jonathan Zinman, 2017. "Quicksand or Bedrock for Behavioral Economics? Assessing Foundational Empirical Questions," NBER Working Papers 23625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Firth, Chris, 2020. "Protecting investors from themselves: Evidence from a regulatory intervention," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
  7. ÅžimÅŸek, Alp, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 15733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Zahra Murad & Martin Sefton & Chris Starmer, 2016. "How do risk attitudes affect measured confidence?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 21-46, February.
  9. Fellner-Röhling, Gerlinde & Hromek, Kristijan & Kleinknecht, Janina & Ludwig, Sandra, 2023. "How to counteract biased self-assessments? An experimental investigation of reactions to social information," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 1-25.
  10. Helen X. H. Bao & Steven Haotong Li, 2016. "Overconfidence And Real Estate Research: A Survey Of The Literature," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-24, September.
  11. Corbet, Shaen & Katsiampa, Paraskevi & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2020. "Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between Bitcoin, altcoins and traditional financial assets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  12. Olczak, Wioleta, 2021. "The foreign corrupt practices act: How investors respond when violation severity and corresponding penalty (mis)match," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  13. repec:jaf:journl:v:13:y:2022:i:1:n:441 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Mamdouh Medhat & Maik Schmeling, 2022. "Short-term Momentum," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 1480-1526.
  15. Da Ke, 2021. "Who Wears the Pants? Gender Identity Norms and Intrahousehold Financial Decision‐Making," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1389-1425, June.
  16. Stephen L. Cheung & Lachlan Johnstone, 2025. "True overconfidence, revealed through actions: An experiment," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 171-199, April.
  17. Abootaleb Shirvani & Svetlozar T. Rachev & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2019. "A Rational Finance Explanation of the Stock Predictability Puzzle," Papers 1911.02194, arXiv.org.
  18. Olkhov, Victor, 2023. "The Market-Based Statistics of “Actual” Returns of Investors," MPRA Paper 116896, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Andreu, Laura & Gimeno, Ruth & Sarto, José Luis & Serrano, Miguel, 2025. "Reversal of divergent decisions: Wise or hasty decisions?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  20. Murad, Zahra & Starmer, Chris, 2021. "Confidence snowballing and relative performance feedback," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 550-572.
  21. Hossain, Tanjim & Okui, Ryo, 2024. "Belief formation under signal correlation," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 160-183.
  22. Xin, Ling, 2024. "Short-term contrarian in the carbon emission market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  23. Philippe Jehiel, 2018. "Investment Strategy and Selection Bias: An Equilibrium Perspective on Overoptimism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1582-1597, June.
  24. Sonsino, Doron & Roth, Yefim, 2025. "The decrease in confidence with forecast extremity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 877-893.
  25. Lawrence, Edward R. & Nguyen, Thanh D. & Wick, Benedikt, 2024. "Gender difference in overconfidence and household financial literacy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
  26. Soosung Hwang & Youngha Cho & Jinho Shin, 2020. "The impact of UK household overconfidence in public information on house prices," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 360-389, October.
  27. Bing Han & David Hirshleifer & Johan Walden, 2023. "Visibility Bias in the Transmission of Consumption Beliefs and Undersaving," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1647-1704, June.
  28. Zhao, Shuangling & Wang, Yunmin & Cao, Guohua, 2025. "Overconfident investors, Predictable Returns, and optimal consumption-portfolio rules," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(PA).
  29. Richards, Daniel W. & Willows, Gizelle D., 2018. "Who trades profusely? The characteristics of individual investors who trade frequently," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-11.
  30. Danso, Albert & Lartey, Theophilus & Amankwah-Amoah, Joseph & Adomako, Samuel & Lu, Qinye & Uddin, Moshfique, 2019. "Market sentiment and firm investment decision-making," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  31. Caleb Rawson, 2022. "Manager perception and proprietary investment disclosure," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 1493-1525, December.
  32. Demir Bektić & Tobias Regele, 2018. "Exploiting uncertainty with market timing in corporate bond markets," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(2), pages 79-92, March.
  33. Kaspereit, Thomas, 2024. "Mandatory disclosure of open-ended real estate fund shares that are registered for redemption?," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  34. Yanchun Jin & Ryo Okui, 2020. "Testing for overconfidence statistically: A moment inequality approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 879-892, November.
  35. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Marco Del Negro, 2022. "A Bayesian Approach to Inference on Probabilistic Surveys," Staff Reports 1025, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  36. Bucciol, Alessandro & Quercia, Simone & Sconti, Alessia, 2021. "Promoting financial literacy among the elderly: Consequences on confidence," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  37. Bertola, Giuseppe & Lo Prete, Anna, 2025. "Who prefers guessing to admitting They Don't Know? Measurement error in financial literacy surveys," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
  38. Jason Brown & Nida Çakır Melek & Johannes Matschke & Sai Sattiraju, 2023. "The Missing Tail Risk in Option Prices," Research Working Paper RWP 23-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  39. Kataria, Mitesh, 2017. "How long do you think it will take? Field Evidence on Gender Differences in Time Optimism," Working Papers in Economics 694, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  40. Margarida Abreu & Victor Mendes, 2018. "Do Individual Investors Trade Differently in Different Markets?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2018/01, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
  41. Bernasconi, Michele & Neunhoeffer, Frieder, 2023. "The income inequality trap: When redistributive preferences do not correct greater inequality," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
  42. Weissensteiner, Alex, 2019. "Correlated noise: Why passive investment might improve market efficiency," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 158-172.
  43. Carlos Cueva Herrero & Iñigo Iturbe-Ormaetxe Kortajarene & Giovanni Ponti & Josefa Tomás Lucas, 2017. "Boys will (still) be boys: Gender differences in trading activity are not due to differences in confidence," Working Papers. Serie AD 2017-06, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  44. Ming-Yu Liu & Chiuling Lu, 2020. "The Continuing Overreaction in the REIT Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 129-149, June.
  45. Balasubramnian, Bhanu & Sargent, Carol Springer, 2020. "Impact of inflated perceptions of financial literacy on financial decision making," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  46. Rahman, Oriana & Semenov, Andrei, 2025. "Subjective probabilities under behavioral heuristics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
  47. Zhang, Xiaotao & Liang, Junpeng & He, Feng, 2019. "Private information advantage or overconfidence? Performance of intraday arbitrage speculators in the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  48. Richards, Daniel W. & Willows, Gizelle D., 2019. "Monday mornings: Individual investor trading on days of the week and times within a day," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 105-115.
  49. Irene Cherono & Tobias Olweny & Tabitha Nasieku, 2019. "Investor Behavior Biases and Stock Market Reaction in Kenya," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 1-6.
  50. Victor Stango & Jonathan Zinman, 2019. "We are all Behavioral, More or Less: Measuring and Using Consumer-level Behavioral Sufficient Statistics," NBER Working Papers 25540, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Martin Chegere & Paolo Falco & Marco Nieddiu & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Mattea Stein, 2022. "The Magic of the Game:Experimental Evidence on Sports Betting Behavior," CSEF Working Papers 655, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 15 Nov 2024.
  52. Rebecca Abraham & Hani El-Chaarani, 2022. "A Mathematical Formulation of the Valuation of Ether and Ether Derivatives as a Function of Investor Sentiment and Price Jumps," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-20, December.
  53. Paul Fischer & Chongho Kim & Frank Zhou, 2022. "Disagreement about fundamentals: measurement and consequences," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 1423-1456, December.
  54. Binghui Wu & Tingting Duan, 2019. "Nonlinear Dynamics Characteristic of Risk Contagion in Financial Market Based on Agent Modeling and Complex Network," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-12, June.
  55. Hao, Xianfeng & Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Wu, Liangyu, 2024. "Oil information uncertainty and aggregate market returns: A natural experiment based on satellite data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
  56. Iain W. Long & Kent Matthews & Vaseekaran Sivarajasingam, 2023. "Environment, alcohol intoxication and overconfidence: Evidence from a lab‐in‐the‐field experiment," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(5), pages 389-413, September.
  57. Dominik M. Piehlmaier, 2022. "Overconfidence and the adoption of robo-advice: why overconfident investors drive the expansion of automated financial advice," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, December.
  58. Galanis, Spyros, 2018. "Speculation under unawareness," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 598-615.
  59. repec:oup:jecgeo:v:50:y:2023:i:2:p:426-446. is not listed on IDEAS
  60. Thi Nha Truc Phan & Philippe Bertrand & Hong Hai Phan & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2023. "The role of investor behavior in emerging stock markets: Evidence from Vietnam," Post-Print hal-04092936, HAL.
  61. Stijn P. M. Broekema & Marc M. Kramer, 2021. "Overconfidence, Financial Advice Seeking and Household Portfolio Under-Diversification," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-15, November.
  62. Cookson, J. Anthony & Lu, Runjing & Mullins, William & Niessner, Marina, 2024. "The social signal," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  63. Bose Olatomi Ige & Rufus Olufemi Adebayo, 2024. "The influences of psychological factors on investors decision making in the South African derivative market," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 13(1), pages 267-278, January.
  64. Hwang, Soosung & Cho, Youngha & Noh, Sanha, 2022. "The cost of overconfidence in public information," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  65. Cueva, Carlos & Iturbe-Ormaetxe, Iñigo, 2025. "Motivated beliefs about stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
  66. Samuel Tabot ENOW, 2023. "A Non-linear Dependency Test for Market Efficiency: Evidence from International Stock Markets," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12.
  67. Shekar Bose & Hafizur Rahman, 2022. "Are News Effects Necessarily Asymmetric? Evidence from Bangladesh Stock Market," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(4), pages 21582440221, October.
  68. Takeshi Murooka & Yuichi Yamamoto, 2021. "Misspecified Bayesian Learning by Strategic Players: First-Order Misspecification and Higher-Order Misspecification," OSIPP Discussion Paper 21E008, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
  69. Yi Luo & Steven E. Salterio, 2022. "The Effect of Gender on Investors’ Judgments and Decision-Making," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 179(1), pages 237-258, August.
  70. Ansari, Yasmeen & Albarrak, Mansour Saleh & Sherfudeen, Noorjahan & Aman, Arfia, 2023. "Examining the relationship between financial literacy and demographic factors and the overconfidence of Saudi investors," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  71. Jarrod Burgh & Emerson Melo, 2023. "Wishful Thinking is Risky Thinking," Papers 2307.02422, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
  72. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Karantounias, Anastasios G., 2019. "Overconfidence, subjective perception and pricing behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 107-132.
  73. Han, Xing & Li, Kai & Li, Youwei, 2020. "Investor overconfidence and the security market line: New evidence from China," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  74. Jitender Kumar & Neha Prince, 2022. "Overconfidence bias in the Indian stock market in diverse market situations: an empirical study," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 13(6), pages 3031-3047, December.
  75. Hwang, Soosung & Rubesam, Alexandre & Salmon, Mark, 2021. "Beta herding through overconfidence: A behavioral explanation of the low-beta anomaly," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
  76. Han, Yufeng & Huang, Dashan & Huang, Dayong & Zhou, Guofu, 2022. "Expected return, volume, and mispricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1295-1315.
  77. Chen, Rongda & Xu, Guorui & Xu, Feng & Jin, Chenglu & Yu, Jingjing, 2022. "A clientele effect in online lending markets: Evidence from the comovement between investor sentiment and online lending rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  78. Bregu, Klajdi, 2020. "Overconfidence and (Over)Trading: The Effect of Feedback on Trading Behavior," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  79. Bertola, Giuseppe & Lo Prete, Anna, 2024. "Financial Literacy and Resilience when Survey Respondents Prefer Guessing to Admitting Ignorance," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202406, University of Turin.
  80. Derek Lemoine, 2025. "Rationally misplaced confidence," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 80(1), pages 1-38, August.
  81. Victor Stango & Joanne Yoong & Jonathan Zinman, 2017. "The Quest for Parsimony in Behavioral Economics: New Methods and Evidence on Three Fronts," NBER Working Papers 23057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  82. Francesco Angelini & Massimiliano Castellani & Lorenzo Zirulia, 2022. "Overconfidence in the art market: a bargaining pricing model with asymmetric disinformation," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 39(3), pages 961-988, October.
  83. Xie, Yuxin & Tang, Ruohua & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Lu, Xiaomeng, 2024. "Narrow framing and under-diversification: Empirical evidence from Chinese households," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  84. Ramzi Boussaidi, 2022. "Implications of the overconfidence bias in presence of private information: Evidence from MENA stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3660-3678, July.
  85. Wang, Jianqiu & Wu, Ke & Pan, Jiening & Jiang, Ying, 2023. "Disagreement, speculation, and the idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 232-250.
  86. Luisa Mendonça & Alan De Genaro, 2020. "Detection and analysis of occurrences of spoofing in the Brazilian capital market," Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 28(3), pages 369-408, March.
  87. Yan Han & Xin Cui & Gloria Y. Tian & Peipei Wang, 2023. "Bayesian Investor Belief Updating Speed and Market Underreaction to Earnings Announcements," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 33(1), pages 66-85, March.
  88. Takeshi Murooka & Yuichi Yamamoto, 2021. "Multi-Player Bayesian Learning with Misspecified Models," OSIPP Discussion Paper 21E001, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
  89. Xuebing Yang & Huilan Zhang, 2023. "Evolution of short-term contrarian profits," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 41(1), pages 1-27, July.
  90. Francesco Bianchi & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma, 2022. "Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(7), pages 2269-2315, July.
  91. Zhang, Teng & Li, Jiaqi & Xu, Zhiwei, 2024. "Speculative trading, stock returns and asset pricing anomalies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
  92. Yang, Baochen & Ye, Tao & Ma, Yao, 2022. "Financing anomaly, mispricing and cross-sectional return predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 579-598.
  93. Fang, Yi & Zhou, Xin & Wen, Yi-Feng & Ou, Qi-Lang, 2024. "Volume and stock returns in the Chinese market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  94. Zhao, Dongshuai & Wang, Zhongli & Schweizer-Gamborino, Florian & Sornette, Didier, 2025. "Polytope Fraud Theory," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
  95. Jarrod Burgh & Emerson Melo, 2024. "Censored Beliefs and Wishful Thinking," Papers 2402.01892, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2025.
  96. Damiano Bruno Silipo & Giovanni Verga & Sviatlana Hlebik, 2017. "Confidence And Overconfidence In Banking," Working Papers 201703, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.
  97. Qingjing Zhang & Taufiq Choudhry & Jing-Ming Kuo & Xiaoquan Liu, 2021. "Does liquidity drive stock market returns? The role of investor risk aversion," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 929-958, October.
  98. Muchammad Arie Wibowo & Nur Khusniyah Indrawati & Siti Aisjah, 2023. "The impact of overconfidence and herding bias on stock investment decisions mediated by risk perception," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 12(5), pages 174-184, July.
  99. Bennett, Donyetta & Mekelburg, Erik & Strauss, Jack & Williams, T.H., 2024. "Unlocking the black box of sentiment and cryptocurrency: What, which, why, when and how?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  100. Tatiana Fedyk & Zvi Singer & Theodore Sougiannis, 2020. "The Accrual Anomaly: Accrual Originations, Accrual Reversals, and Resolution of Uncertainty," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 885-916, June.
  101. Taro Tsuchiya, 2021. "Profitability of cryptocurrency Pump and Dump schemes," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 149-167, June.
  102. Jacobs, Heiko, 2020. "Hype or help? Journalists’ perceptions of mispriced stocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 550-565.
  103. Tsung‐Yu Chen & Guan‐Ying Huang & Zhen‐Xing Wu, 2022. "Overreaction‐based momentum in the real estate investment trust market," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 453-471, September.
  104. Khasawneh, Maher & McMillan, David G. & Kambouroudis, Dimos, 2024. "Left-tail risk and UK stock return predictability: Underreaction, overreaction, and arbitrage difficulties," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
  105. Aydoğan Alti & Sheridan Titman, 2019. "A Dynamic Model of Characteristic-Based Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 25777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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