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Beta herding through overconfidence: A behavioral explanation of the low-beta anomaly

Author

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  • Soosung Hwang
  • Alexandre Rubesam

    (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Mark Salmon

Abstract

We investigate asset returns using the concept of beta herding, which measures cross-sectional variations in betas due to changes in investors' confidence about their market outlook. Overconfidence causes beta herding (compression of betas towards the market beta), while under-confidence leads to adverse beta herding (dispersion of betas from the market beta). We show that the low-beta anomaly can be explained by a return reversal following adverse beta herding, as high beta stocks underperform low beta stocks exclusively following periods of adverse beta herding. This result is robust to investors' preferences for lottery-like assets, sentiment, and return reversals, and beta herding leads time variation in betas.

Suggested Citation

  • Soosung Hwang & Alexandre Rubesam & Mark Salmon, 2021. "Beta herding through overconfidence: A behavioral explanation of the low-beta anomaly," Post-Print hal-03275894, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03275894
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102318
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03275894
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    3. Lee, Hsiu-Chuan & Lee, Yun-Huan & Nguyen, Cuong, 2023. "Tail comovements of implied volatility indices and global index futures returns predictability," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
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    6. Alonso Conde, Ana B. & Rojo Suárez, Javier, 2022. "Trends in the explanatory power of factor-based asset pricing models in determining the cost of capital," Cuadernos de Gestión, Universidad del País Vasco - Instituto de Economía Aplicada a la Empresa (IEAE).
    7. Agoraki, Maria-Eleni K. & Aslanidis, Nektarios & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2022. "U.S. banks’ lending, financial stability, and text-based sentiment analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 73-90.
    8. Hu, May & Tuilautala, Mataiasi & Yang, Jingjing & Zhong, Qian, 2022. "Asymmetric information and inside management trading in the Chinese market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
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    12. Agoraki, Maria-Eleni & Aslanidis, Nektarios & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2021. "U.S. Banks’ lending behaviour, financial stability, and investor sentiment: A textual analysis," Working Papers 2072/534915, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    BetaHerdingOverconfidenceLow-beta anomaly;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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