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Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading

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  • Kent Daniel
  • David Hirshleifer

Abstract

Individuals and asset managers trade aggressively, resulting in high volume in asset markets, even when such trading results in high risk and low net returns. Asset prices display patterns of predictability that are difficult to reconcile with rational expectations–based theories of price formation. This paper discusses how investor overconfidence can explain these and other stylized facts. We review the evidence from psychology and securities markets bearing upon overconfidence effects, and present a set of overconfidence based models that are consistent with this evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer, 2016. "Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading," NBER Working Papers 21945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21945
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • Z23 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - Finance
    • Z33 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Marketing and Finance

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