IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebj/ijpssr/2025v4iia8.html

Investor Sentiments and Bitcoin Volatility: Empirical Evidence from Cryptocurrency Market

Author

Listed:
  • Mubashir Zaman
  • Dr. Surayya Jamal
  • Humma Abid
  • Farhan Ahmad

Abstract

The present study goals to examine the impact of investors’ sentiment, such as overconfidence, optimism, pessimism, and reasonable investor expectations, on Bitcoin currency. Therefore, daily Bitcoin trading data was taken from CoinMarketCap. The data period consists of January 2023 to December 2024. The unit root stationary, GARCH (1,1) model and ordinary least square (OLS) regression test were used. The unit root stationary (ADF) test results reveal that all variables are stationary at level. The GARCH (1,1) model suggests that the lagged trading volume has a considerable positive influence on the current Bitcoin trade volume. Further GARCH (1,1) results demonstrate that optimism has a positive significant impact on and pessimism has a negative significant influence on Bitcoin exchange volume. Whereas ordinary least square regression (OLS) models also show that optimism has a positive significant impact and pessimism has a negative impact on Bitcoin trade volume. The study has various suggestions for stakeholders, investors, policymakers, and researchers.

Suggested Citation

  • Mubashir Zaman & Dr. Surayya Jamal & Humma Abid & Farhan Ahmad, 2025. "Investor Sentiments and Bitcoin Volatility: Empirical Evidence from Cryptocurrency Market," International Journal of Politics & Social Sciences Review (IJPSSR), International Journal of Politics & Social Sciences Review (IJPSSR), vol. 4(I), pages 97-103.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebj:ijpssr:2025v4iia8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ojs.ijpssr.org.pk/index.php/ijpssr/article/download/106/87/1470
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dirk G. Baur & Thomas Dimpfl, 2021. "The volatility of Bitcoin and its role as a medium of exchange and a store of value," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2663-2683, November.
    2. Vytautas Karalevicius & Niels Degrande & Jochen De Weerdt, 2018. "Using sentiment analysis to predict interday Bitcoin price movements," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 19(1), pages 56-75, December.
    3. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    4. Naveeda K. Katper & Muhammad Azam & Nazima Abdul Karim & Syeda Zinnaira Zia, 2019. "Behavioral biases and investors’ decision-making: The moderating role of socio-demographic variables," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-15, September.
    5. Gulnur Muradoglu & Nigel Harvey, 2012. "Behavioural finance: the role of psychological factors in financial decisions," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(2), pages 68-80, November.
    6. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer, 2015. "Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 61-88, Fall.
    7. Gulnur Muradoglu & Nigel Harvey, 2012. "Behavioural finance: the role of psychological factors in financial decisions," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(2), pages 68-80, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qingjing Zhang & Taufiq Choudhry & Jing-Ming Kuo & Xiaoquan Liu, 2021. "Does liquidity drive stock market returns? The role of investor risk aversion," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 929-958, October.
    2. Helen X. H. Bao & Steven Haotong Li, 2016. "Overconfidence And Real Estate Research: A Survey Of The Literature," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-24, September.
    3. Kataria, Mitesh, 2017. "How long do you think it will take? Field Evidence on Gender Differences in Time Optimism," Working Papers in Economics 694, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    4. Zhang, Xiaotao & Liang, Junpeng & He, Feng, 2019. "Private information advantage or overconfidence? Performance of intraday arbitrage speculators in the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    5. Huang, Ruichen, 2025. "Non-response bias in expectation surveys: Different perceptions and expectations of financial matters from “early quitters”," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Balasubramnian, Bhanu & Sargent, Carol Springer, 2020. "Impact of inflated perceptions of financial literacy on financial decision making," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Jitender Kumar & Neha Prince, 2022. "Overconfidence bias in the Indian stock market in diverse market situations: an empirical study," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 13(6), pages 3031-3047, December.
    8. Ramzi Boussaidi, 2022. "Implications of the overconfidence bias in presence of private information: Evidence from MENA stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3660-3678, July.
    9. Ahrens, Steffen & Bosch-Rosa, Ciril & Roulund, Rasmus, 2019. "Price Dynamics and Trader Overconfidence," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 161, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    10. Paul Fischer & Chongho Kim & Frank Zhou, 2022. "Disagreement about fundamentals: measurement and consequences," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 1423-1456, December.
    11. Yang, Baochen & Ye, Tao & Ma, Yao, 2022. "Financing anomaly, mispricing and cross-sectional return predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 579-598.
    12. Hanvedes Daovisan & Thanapauge Chamaratana, 2020. "Resistance to change in the financial management of small family-owned firms: a grounded theory of family firms in Laos," Journal of Accounting & Organizational Change, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 16(3), pages 497-514, August.
    13. Xin, Ling, 2024. "Short-term contrarian in the carbon emission market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    14. Richards, Daniel W. & Willows, Gizelle D., 2018. "Who trades profusely? The characteristics of individual investors who trade frequently," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-11.
    15. Hwang, Soosung & Rubesam, Alexandre & Salmon, Mark, 2021. "Beta herding through overconfidence: A behavioral explanation of the low-beta anomaly," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    16. Bregu, Klajdi, 2020. "Overconfidence and (Over)Trading: The Effect of Feedback on Trading Behavior," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    17. Fabrice Rousseau & Herve Boco & Laurent Germain, 2020. "When Overconfident Traders Meet Feedback Traders - Updated from 2016," Economics Department Working Paper Series n270-16.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    18. Soosung Hwang & Youngha Cho & Jinho Shin, 2020. "The impact of UK household overconfidence in public information on house prices," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 360-389, October.
    19. Murad, Zahra & Starmer, Chris, 2021. "Confidence snowballing and relative performance feedback," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 550-572.
    20. Bose Olatomi Ige & Rufus Olufemi Adebayo, 2024. "The influences of psychological factors on investors decision making in the South African derivative market," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 13(1), pages 267-278, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebj:ijpssr:2025v4iia8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Hazrat Bilal (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ijpssr.org.pk .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.