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Who Prefers Guessing to Admitting They Don’t Know? Measurement Error in Financial Literacy Surveys

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  • Giuseppe Bertola
  • Anna Lo Prete

Abstract

A propensity to guess randomly rather than to admit ignorance answering “Don’t know” is a plausible reason why frequent wrong answers are given to survey questions that aim to assess competence. We model this source of measurement error and assess its empirical relevance in two consecutive waves of a survey of financial literacy. Misclassification of standard financial literacy indicators is very likely, especially in some demographic groups. Respondents who answer correctly in both waves of the survey are less likely to have guessed in the first wave, and have a lower probability of reporting financial difficulties than those who guessed and were lucky enough to appear literate.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Bertola & Anna Lo Prete, 2025. "Who Prefers Guessing to Admitting They Don’t Know? Measurement Error in Financial Literacy Surveys," CESifo Working Paper Series 11748, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11748
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    misclassification; guessing; financial literacy; financial resilience;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • G53 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Financial Literacy

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