IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_11748.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Who Prefers Guessing to Admitting They Don’t Know? Measurement Error in Financial Literacy Surveys

Author

Listed:
  • Giuseppe Bertola
  • Anna Lo Prete

Abstract

A propensity to guess randomly rather than to admit ignorance answering “Don’t know” is a plausible reason why frequent wrong answers are given to survey questions that aim to assess competence. We model this source of measurement error and assess its empirical relevance in two consecutive waves of a survey of financial literacy. Misclassification of standard financial literacy indicators is very likely, especially in some demographic groups. Respondents who answer correctly in both waves of the survey are less likely to have guessed in the first wave, and have a lower probability of reporting financial difficulties than those who guessed and were lucky enough to appear literate.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Bertola & Anna Lo Prete, 2025. "Who Prefers Guessing to Admitting They Don’t Know? Measurement Error in Financial Literacy Surveys," CESifo Working Paper Series 11748, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11748
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp11748.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Celhay, Pablo & Meyer, Bruce D. & Mittag, Nikolas, 2024. "What leads to measurement errors? Evidence from reports of program participation in three surveys," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    2. Boggio, Cecilia & Coda Moscarola, Flavia & Gallice, Andrea, 2020. "What is good for the goose is good for the gander?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Lusardi, Annamaria & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2011. "Financial literacy and retirement planning in the United States," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 509-525, October.
    4. Bottazzi, Laura & Lusardi, Annamaria, 2021. "Stereotypes in financial literacy: Evidence from PISA," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. van Rooij, Maarten & Lusardi, Annamaria & Alessie, Rob, 2011. "Financial literacy and stock market participation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 449-472, August.
    6. de Bruijn, Ernst-Jan & Antonides, Gerrit, 2020. "Determinants of financial worry and rumination," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    7. Tabea Bucher-Koenen & Rob Alessie & Annamaria Lusardi & Maarten van Rooij, 2021. "Fearless Woman. Financial Literacy and Stock Market Participation," Working Papers 708, DNB.
    8. Maarten C.J. van Rooij & Annamaria Lusardi & Rob J.M. Alessie, 2012. "Financial Literacy, Retirement Planning and Household Wealth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(560), pages 449-478, May.
    9. Tinghög, Gustav & Ahmed, Ali & Barrafrem, Kinga & Lind, Thérèse & Skagerlund, Kenny & Västfjäll, Daniel, 2021. "Gender differences in financial literacy: The role of stereotype threat," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 405-416.
    10. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer, 2015. "Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 61-88, Fall.
    11. Anna Lo Prete, 2018. "Inequality and the finance you know: does economic literacy matter?," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(1), pages 183-205, April.
    12. Leora Klapper & Annamaria Lusardi, 2020. "Financial literacy and financial resilience: Evidence from around the world," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 49(3), pages 589-614, September.
    13. van Rooij, Maarten C.J. & Lusardi, Annamaria & Alessie, Rob J.M., 2011. "Financial literacy and retirement planning in the Netherlands," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 593-608, August.
    14. Lo Prete, Anna, 2024. "Political participation and financial education: Understanding personal and collective tradeoffs for a better citizenship," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    15. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2014. "The Economic Importance of Financial Literacy: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 5-44, March.
    16. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2005. "Financial Literacy and Planning: Implications for Retirement Wellbeing," CeRP Working Papers 46, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    17. Thomas F. Crossley & Tobias Schmidt & Panagiota Tzamourani & Joachim K. Winter, 2021. "Interviewer effects and the measurement of financial literacy," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(1), pages 150-178, January.
    18. Robert L. Clark & Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2021. "Financial Fragility during the COVID-19 Pandemic," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 292-296, May.
    19. Gilles E. Gignac & Elizabeth Ooi, 2022. "Measurement error in research on financial literacy: How much error is there and how does it influence effect size estimates?," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 938-956, June.
    20. Maarten C.J. van Rooij & Annamaria Lusardi & Rob J.M. Alessie, 2012. "Financial Literacy, Retirement Planning and Household Wealth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(560), pages 449-478, May.
    21. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2023. "The Importance of Financial Literacy: Opening a New Field," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 137-154, Fall.
    22. Durand, Richard M. & Lambert, Zarrel V., 1988. "Don't know responses in surveys: Analyses and interpretational consequences," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 169-188, March.
    23. Arthur Lewbel, 2012. "Using Heteroscedasticity to Identify and Estimate Mismeasured and Endogenous Regressor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 67-80.
    24. Bucher-Koenen, Tabea & Lusardi, Annamaria, 2011. "Financial literacy and retirement planning in Germany," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 565-584, October.
    25. Hospido, Laura & Iriberri, Nagore & Machelett, Margarita, 2023. "Gender gaps in financial literacy: a multi-arm RCT to break the response bias in surveys," CEPR Discussion Papers 18646, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    26. Hirshleifer, David & Daniel, Kent, 2015. "Overconfident investors, predictable returns, and excessive trading," MPRA Paper 69002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Tabea Bucher-Koenen & Annamaria Lusardi & Rob Alessie & Maarten van Rooij, 2017. "How Financially Literate Are Women? An Overview and New Insights," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 255-283, July.
    28. Inghelbrecht, Koen & Tedde, Mariachiara, 2024. "Overconfidence, financial literacy and excessive trading," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 219(C), pages 152-195.
    29. Alessia Sconti, 2024. "Having Trouble Making Ends Meet? Financial Literacy Makes the Difference," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 10(1), pages 377-408, March.
    30. Katherine Baldiga, 2014. "Gender Differences in Willingness to Guess," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(2), pages 434-448, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bertola, Giuseppe & Lo Prete, Anna, 2024. "Financial Literacy and Resilience when Survey Respondents Prefer Guessing to Admitting Ignorance," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202406, University of Turin.
    2. Sconti, Alessia & Caserta, Maurizio & Ferrante, Livio, 2024. "Gen Z and financial education: Evidence from a randomized control trial in the South of Italy," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    3. Cziriak, Marius & Bucher-Koenen, Tabea & Alessie, Rob, 2024. "Beyond knowledge: Confidence and the Gender Gap in Financial Literacy," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302421, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Azra Zaimovic & Anes Torlakovic & Almira Arnaut-Berilo & Tarik Zaimovic & Lejla Dedovic & Minela Nuhic Meskovic, 2023. "Mapping Financial Literacy: A Systematic Literature Review of Determinants and Recent Trends," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-30, June.
    5. David Aristei & Manuela Gallo, 2021. "Financial Knowledge, Confidence, and Sustainable Financial Behavior," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-21, September.
    6. Kaiser, Tim & Lusardi, Annamaria, 2024. "Financial Literacy and Financial Education: An Overview," IZA Discussion Papers 16926, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Douissa, Ismail Ben, 2020. "Factors affecting College students’ multidimensional financial literacy in the Middle East," International Review of Economics Education, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    8. Grohmann, Antonia & Hübler, Olaf & Kouwenberg, Roy & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2021. "Financial literacy: Thai middle-class women do not lag behind," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    9. Zuzana Brokesova & Andrej Cupak & Gueorgui Kolev, 2017. "Financial literacy and voluntary savings for retirement in Slovakia," Working and Discussion Papers WP 10/2017, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    10. Tabea Bucher-Koenen & Rob Alessie & Annamaria Lusardi & Maarten van Rooij, 2021. "Fearless Woman. Financial Literacy and Stock Market Participation," Working Papers 708, DNB.
    11. Giovanni Gallo & Alessia sconti, 2023. "Could financial education be a universal social policy? A simulation of potential influences on inequality levels," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0182, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    12. Samira Ben Belgacem & Ghousia Khatoon & Hussaini Bala & Abad Alzuman, 2024. "The Role of Financial Technology on the Nexus Between Demographic, Socio-economic, and Psychological Factors, and the Financial Literacy Gap," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(2), pages 21582440241, May.
    13. Bucher-Koenen, Tabea & Janssen, Bennet & Knebel, Caroline & Tzamourani, Panagiota, 2023. "Financial literacy, stock market participation, and financial well-being in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-071, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    14. Sconti, Alessia, 2022. "Digital vs. in-person financial education: What works best for Generation Z?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 300-318.
    15. Anderson, Anders & Baker, Forest & Robinson, David T., 2017. "Precautionary savings, retirement planning and misperceptions of financial literacy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(2), pages 383-398.
    16. Christina E. Bannier & Dennis Sinzig, 2018. "Finanzwissen und Vorsorgesparverhalten [Financial literacy and savings behavior]," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 70(3), pages 243-275, August.
    17. Bannier, Christina E. & Schwarz, Milena, 2018. "Gender- and education-related effects of financial literacy and confidence on financial wealth," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 66-86.
    18. Noemi Oggero & Maria Cristina Rossi & Elisa Ughetto, 2020. "Entrepreneurial spirits in women and men. The role of financial literacy and digital skills," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 313-327, August.
    19. Hospido, Laura & Iriberri, Nagore & Machelett, Margarita, 2023. "Gender Gaps in Financial Literacy: A Multi-Arm RCT to Break the Response Bias in Surveys," IZA Discussion Papers 16628, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Ngoc Duc Lang & Ha Mai Tran & Giang Tra Nguyen & Duc Hong Vo, 2024. "An Untapped Instrument in the Fight Against Poverty: The Impacts of Financial Literacy on Poverty Worldwide," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 174(2), pages 657-695, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • G53 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Financial Literacy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11748. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.