IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v76y2025ics0275531925000583.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Reversal of divergent decisions: Wise or hasty decisions?

Author

Listed:
  • Andreu, Laura
  • Gimeno, Ruth
  • Sarto, José Luis
  • Serrano, Miguel

Abstract

We examine whether the reversals of buying decisions by fund managers depend on the performance of the stocks; or do they depend on the divergence in the trading decisions of peer managers. Through separate analyses, we find that stock performance positively influences the reversal of trading decisions while the level of divergence has a negative effect. However, when we analyse the joint effect of performance and divergence, we find a more rapid reversal in more divergent decisions that lead to good results. This asymmetric evidence might be linked to the disposition effect and could entail the loss of potential good outcomes. The results indicate that managers who reverse their buying decisions take greater advantage of the potential performance, providing evidence of skill in their selling decisions. Finally, we observe that team structures mitigate the preference of managers to hold on to their special bets.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreu, Laura & Gimeno, Ruth & Sarto, José Luis & Serrano, Miguel, 2025. "Reversal of divergent decisions: Wise or hasty decisions?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:76:y:2025:i:c:s0275531925000583
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.102802
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531925000583
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.102802?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vidal, Marta & Vidal-García, Javier & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2015. "The relation between fees and return predictability in the mutual fund industry," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 260-270.
    2. Yakov Amihud & Ruslan Goyenko, 2013. "Mutual Fund's R-super-2 as Predictor of Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(3), pages 667-694.
    3. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Christopher R. Blake & Yoel Krasny & Sadi O. Ozelge, 2010. "The effect of holdings data frequency on conclusions about mutual fund behavior," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Edwin J Elton & Martin J Gruber (ed.), Investments And Portfolio Performance, chapter 10, pages 195-205, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    5. Matthias Sutter, 2009. "Individual Behavior and Group Membership: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2247-2257, December.
    6. Fang, Jieyan & Kempf, Alexander & Trapp, Monika, 2014. "Fund Manager Allocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 661-674.
    7. Hirshleifer, David & Daniel, Kent, 2015. "Overconfident investors, predictable returns, and excessive trading," MPRA Paper 69002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Cici, Gjergji & Dahm, Laura K. & Kempf, Alexander, 2018. "Trading efficiency of fund families: Impact on fund performance and investment behavior," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-14.
    9. Cici, Gjergji, 2012. "The Prevalence of the Disposition Effect in Mutual Funds’ Trades," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(4), pages 795-820, August.
    10. Malcolm Wardlaw, 2020. "Measuring Mutual Fund Flow Pressure as Shock to Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 3221-3243, December.
    11. Biljana N. Adebambo & Xuemin (Sterling) Yan, 2016. "Momentum, Reversals, and Fund Manager Overconfidence," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 45(3), pages 609-639, August.
    12. Tom Y. Chang & David H. Solomon & Mark M. Westerfield, 2016. "Looking for Someone to Blame: Delegation, Cognitive Dissonance, and the Disposition Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 267-302, February.
    13. K. J. Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto, 2009. "How Active Is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3329-3365, September.
    14. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer, 2015. "Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 61-88, Fall.
    15. Trejos, Cristian & van Deemen, Adrian & Rodríguez, Yeny E. & Gómez, Juan M., 2019. "Overconfidence and disposition effect in the stock market: A micro world based setting," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 61-69.
    16. Andrea Frazzini, 2006. "The Disposition Effect and Underreaction to News," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 2017-2046, August.
    17. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, April.
    18. Constantinos Antoniou & John A. Doukas & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2016. "Investor Sentiment, Beta, and the Cost of Equity Capital," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(2), pages 347-367, February.
    19. Gordon J. Alexander & Gjergji Cici & Scott Gibson, 2007. "Does Motivation Matter When Assessing Trade Performance? An Analysis of Mutual Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 125-150, January.
    20. Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto, 2006. "How Active is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2370, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2009.
    21. David J. Cooper & John H. Kagel, 2005. "Are Two Heads Better Than One? Team versus Individual Play in Signaling Games," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 477-509, June.
    22. Saurin Patel & Sergei Sarkissian & Lauren Cohen, 2021. "Portfolio Pumping and Managerial Structure," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 194-226.
    23. Zamri Ahmad & Haslindar Ibrahim & Jasman Tuyon, 2017. "Institutional investor behavioral biases: syntheses of theory and evidence," Management Research Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(5), pages 578-603, May.
    24. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1775-1798 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Margarida Abreu & Victor Mendes, 2020. "Do individual investors trade differently in different financial markets?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(13), pages 1253-1270, July.
    26. Hao Jiang & Marno Verbeek & Yu Wang, 2014. "Information Content When Mutual Funds Deviate from Benchmarks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(8), pages 2038-2053, August.
    27. Jen-Sin Lee & Pi-Hsia Yen & Kam C. Chan, 2013. "Market states and disposition effect: evidence from Taiwan mutual fund investors," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(10), pages 1331-1342, April.
    28. Weber, Martin & Camerer, Colin F., 1998. "The disposition effect in securities trading: an experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 167-184, January.
    29. Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto, 2006. "How Active is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2370, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2009.
    30. Russ Wermers & Tong Yao & Jane Zhao, 2012. "Forecasting Stock Returns Through an Efficient Aggregation of Mutual Fund Holdings," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3490-3529.
    31. Tarvo Vaarmets & Kristjan Liivamägi & Tõnn Talpsepp, 2019. "How Does Learning and Education Help to Overcome the Disposition Effect?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 801-830.
    32. Cueva, Carlos & Iturbe-Ormaetxe, Iñigo & Ponti, Giovanni & Tomás, Josefa, 2019. "An experimental analysis of the disposition effect: Who and when?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 207-215.
    33. Rui Chen & Zhennan Gao & Xueyong Zhang & Min Zhu, 2018. "Mutual Fund Managers’ Prior Work Experience and Their Investment Skill," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(1), pages 3-24, March.
    34. Steven N. Kaplan & Berk A. Sensoy & Per Strömberg, 2009. "Should Investors Bet on the Jockey or the Horse? Evidence from the Evolution of Firms from Early Business Plans to Public Companies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(1), pages 75-115, February.
    35. Andy Puckett & Xuemin (Sterling) Yan, 2011. "The Interim Trading Skills of Institutional Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(2), pages 601-633, April.
    36. Nicholas Barberis & Wei Xiong, 2009. "What Drives the Disposition Effect? An Analysis of a Long‐Standing Preference‐Based Explanation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 751-784, April.
    37. Berk, Jonathan B. & van Binsbergen, Jules H., 2015. "Measuring skill in the mutual fund industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 1-20.
    38. Andreu, Laura & Ortiz, Cristina & Sarto, José Luis, 2020. "Disposition effect in fund managers. Fund and stock-specific factors and the upshot for investors," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 253-268.
    39. Manuel Ammann & Alexander Ising & Stephan Kessler, 2012. "Disposition effect and mutual fund performance," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 1-19, January.
    40. Ferri, Giovanni & Ploner, Matteo & Rizzolli, Matteo, 2021. "Trading fast and slow: The role of deliberation in experimental financial markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    41. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2015. "Scale and skill in active management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 23-45.
    42. Miguel A. Ferreira & Aneel Keswani & António F. Miguel & Sofia B. Ramos, 2013. "The Determinants of Mutual Fund Performance: A Cross-Country Study," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 483-525.
    43. Patel, Saurin & Sarkissian, Sergei, 2017. "To Group or Not to Group? Evidence from Mutual Fund Databases," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(5), pages 1989-2021, October.
    44. Cristian Trejos & Adrian van Deemen & Yeny E. Rodriguez & Juan M. Gomez, 2019. "Overconfidence and disposition effect in the stock market : A micro world based setting," Post-Print hal-02312273, HAL.
    45. Saurin Patel & Sergei Sarkissian, 2021. "Portfolio Pumping and Managerial Structure [Internal governance mechanisms and operational performance: Evidence from index mutual funds]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(1), pages 194-226.
    46. John A. Doukas & Dimitris Petmezas, 2007. "Acquisitions, Overconfident Managers and Self‐attribution Bias," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(3), pages 531-577, June.
    47. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. "The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-790, July.
    48. Gerard Hoberg & Nitin Kumar & Nagpurnanand Prabhala, 2018. "Mutual Fund Competition, Managerial Skill, and Alpha Persistence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(5), pages 1896-1929.
    49. Bai, John Jianqiu & Tang, Yuehua & Wan, Chi & Yüksel, H. Zafer, 2022. "Fund manager skill in an era of globalization: Offshore concentration and fund performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 18-40.
    50. Ahn, Yongkil, 2022. "The anatomy of the disposition effect: Which factors are most important?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    51. Gimeno, Ruth & Andreu, Laura & Sarto, José Luis, 2022. "Fund trading divergence and performance contribution," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    52. Zamri Ahmad & Haslindar Ibrahim & Jasman Tuyon, 2017. "Institutional investor behavioral biases: syntheses of theory and evidence," Management Research Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(5), pages 578-603, May.
    53. Ben-Rephael, Azi & Kandel, Shmuel & Wohl, Avi, 2011. "The Price Pressure of Aggregate Mutual Fund Flows," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 585-603, April.
    54. Moreno, David & Rodríguez, Rosa & Zambrana, Rafael, 2018. "Management sub-advising in the mutual fund industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 567-587.
    55. Elton, Edwin J. & Gruber, Martin J. & Blake, Christopher R. & Krasny, Yoel & Ozelge, Sadi O., 2010. "The effect of holdings data frequency on conclusions about mutual fund behavior," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 912-922, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dayani, Arash & Jannati, Sima, 2022. "Running a mutual fund: Performance and trading behavior of runner managers," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 43-62.
    2. Gimeno, Ruth & Andreu, Laura & Sarto, José Luis, 2022. "Fund trading divergence and performance contribution," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Gutiérrez-Nieto, Begoña & Ortiz, Cristina & Vicente, Luis, 2023. "A bibliometric analysis of the disposition effect: Origins and future research avenues," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    4. Carneiro, Livia Mendes & Eid Junior, William & Yoshinaga, Claudia Emiko, 2022. "The implications of passive investments for active fund management: International evidence," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    5. Richard Evans & Javier Gil‐Bazo & Marc Lipson, 2024. "Mutual fund performance and manager assets: The negative effect of outside holdings," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 53(1), pages 3-29, March.
    6. Andreu, Laura & Ortiz, Cristina & Sarto, José Luis, 2020. "Disposition effect in fund managers. Fund and stock-specific factors and the upshot for investors," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 253-268.
    7. Jin, Xuejun & Li, Hongze & Yu, Bin & Zheng, Yijing, 2023. "How does the COVID-19 pandemic change the disposition effect in fund investors?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. Beatrice Boumda & Darren Duxbury & Cristina Ortiz & Luis Vicente, 2021. "Do Socially Responsible Investment Funds Sell Losses and Ride Gains? The Disposition Effect in SRI Funds," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-14, July.
    9. Zhang, Xiaotao & Wang, Ziqiao & Hao, Jing & Liu, Jiubiao, 2022. "Stock market entry timing and retail investors' disposition effect," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Michel Verlaine, 2022. "Behavioral finance and the architecture of the asset management industry," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1454-1476, December.
    11. Kahya, Evrim Hilal & Ekinci, Cumhur, 2022. "Disposition bias among Borsa Istanbul investors: What do we know about type, size and trading frequency?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    12. Jules Van Binsbergen & Jungsuk Han & Hongxun Ruan & Ran Xing, 2024. "A Horizon‐Based Decomposition of Mutual Fund Value Added Using Transactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1831-1882, June.
    13. Janssen, Dirk-Jan & Li, Jiangyan & Qiu, Jianying & Weitzel, Utz, 2020. "The disposition effect and underreaction to private information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    14. Lan, Chunhua & Moneta, Fabio & Wermers, Russ, 2018. "Holding Horizon: A New Measure of Active Investment Management," CFR Working Papers 15-06, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR), revised 2018.
    15. Chakravarty, Sugato & Ray, Rina, 2020. "On short-term institutional trading skill, behavioral biases, and liquidity need," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    16. Antoniou, Constantinos & Mitali, Shema F., 2023. "Do stock-level experienced returns influence security selection?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    17. Agapova, Anna & Kaprielyan, Margarita, 2023. "Diversification measures: Mutual fund family case," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    18. Aineas Mallios & Taylan Mavruk, 2025. "Do ESG funds engage in portfolio pumping to gain higher flows? An application of Benford's Law," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 1540-1563, April.
    19. Zhang, Jinhua & Wang, Guipu & Yan, Cheng, 2020. "Can foreign equity funds outperform their benchmarks? New evidence from fund-holding data for China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 11-20.
    20. De Winne, Rudy, 2021. "Measuring the disposition effect," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:76:y:2025:i:c:s0275531925000583. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.