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What if? The economic effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia

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Cited by:

  1. Ciola, Emanuele & Turco, Enrico & Gurgone, Andrea & Bazzana, Davide & Vergalli, Sergio & Menoncin, Francesco, 2023. "Enter the MATRIX model:a Multi-Agent model for Transition Risks with application to energy shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  2. Konstantinos Mavrigiannakis & Stelios Sakkas, 2025. "EU Sanctions on Russia and Implications for a Small Open Economy: The Case of Cyprus," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 745-780, July.
  3. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  4. Gornemann, Nils & Hildebrand, Sebastian & Kuester, Keith, 2024. "Limited (energy) supply, monetary policy, and sunspots," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
  5. Nils Gornemann & Sebastian Hildebrand & Keith Kuester, 2022. "Limited Energy Supply, Sunspots, and Monetary Policy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 215, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
  6. Simone Emiliozzi & Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani, 2025. "The European Energy Crisis and the Consequences for the Global Natural Gas Market," The Energy Journal, , vol. 46(1), pages 119-145, January.
  7. Christopher Clayton & Matteo Maggiori & Jesse Schreger, 2025. "Putting Economics Back into Geoeconomics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2025, volume 40, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Chan, Jenny & Diz, Sebastian & Kanngiesser, Derrick, 2024. "Energy prices and household heterogeneity: Monetary policy in a Gas-TANK," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(S).
  9. Lionel Fontagné & Philippe Martin & Gianluca Orefice, 2024. "The many channels of firm’s adjustment to energy shocks: evidence from France," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 39(117), pages 5-43.
  10. Fujiy,Brian C. & Ghose,Devaki & Khanna,Gaurav, 2024. "Production Networks and Firm-level Elasticities of Substitution," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10782, The World Bank.
  11. Fetzer, Thiemo & Palmou, Christina & Schneebacher, Jakob, 2024. "How do firms cope with economic shocks in real time?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1517, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  12. Bayer Christian & Bierbrauer Felix & Ockenfels Axel & Sutter Matthias, 2025. "ECONtribute: Markets & Public Policy: Agenda und ausgewählte Forschungsschwerpunkte," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 26(1), pages 34-48.
  13. Bobasu, Alina & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Ambrocio, Gene & Auer, Simone & Bonfim, Diana & Bottero, Margherita & Brázdik, František & Buss, Ginters & Byrne, David & Casalis, André , 2025. "Monetary policy transmission: a reference guide through ESCB models and empirical benchmarks," Occasional Paper Series 377, European Central Bank.
  14. Jakub Sokolowski & Marek Antosiewicz & Piotr Lewandowski, 2022. "The economic effects of stopping Russian energy Import in Poland," IBS Research Reports 01/2022, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
  15. Beata Javorcik & Lucas Kitzmüller & Helena Schweiger & Muhammed A. Yıldırım, 2024. "Economic costs of friendshoring," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(7), pages 2871-2908, July.
  16. Jochen Güntner & Magnus Reif & Maik Wolters, 2024. "Sudden stop: Supply and demand shocks in the German natural gas market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1282-1300, November.
  17. Gnocato, Nicolò, 2025. "Energy price shocks, unemployment, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  18. Ludovic Panon & Laura Lebastard & Michele Mancini & Alessandro Borin & Peonare Caka & Gianmarco Cariola & Dennis Essers & Elena Gentili & Andrea Linarello & Tullia Padellini & Francisco Requena & Jaco, 2024. "Inputs in Distress: Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Firms’ Sourcing," Working Papers 2436, Banco de España.
  19. Ricardo Hausmann & Ulrich Schetter & Muhammed A Yildirim, 2024. "On the design of effective sanctions: the case of bans on exports to Russia," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 39(117), pages 109-153.
  20. Borin, Alessandro & Conteduca, Francesco Paolo & Di Stefano, Enrica & Gunnella, Vanessa & Mancini, Michele & Panon, Ludovic, 2023. "Trade decoupling from Russia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 25-44.
  21. Bianchi, Javier & Sosa-Padilla, César, 2024. "On wars, sanctions, and sovereign default," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 62-70.
  22. Thomas R. Cook & Amaze Lusompa & Jun Nie, 2022. "Disruptions to Russian Energy Supply Likely to Weigh on European Output," Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue November , pages 1-4, November.
  23. Horn, Gustav A., 2024. "Wirtschaftspolitik in der Zeitenwende," Working Paper Forschungsförderung 332, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf.
  24. Birkholz, Carlo & Kraus, Margit, 2022. "Die Energiekrise im Standortvergleich: Preiseffekte und Importrisiken. Sonderstudie zum Länderindex Familienunternehmen," Studien, Stiftung Familienunternehmen / Foundation for Family Businesses, number 262218.
  25. Karl-Martin Ehrhart & Ingmar Schlecht & Jan Schmitz & Runxi Wang, 2025. "Correction to: A Game-Theoretic Analysis of the Interaction Between Embargoes, Price Caps and Tariffs in EU-Russia Gas Trade," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 1-2, December.
  26. Ferriani, Fabrizio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2023. "The impact of the war in Ukraine on energy prices: Consequences for firms’ financial performance," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 221-230.
  27. Jochen Güntner & Michael Irlacher & Peter Öhlinger, 2023. "Not all oil types are alike," Economics working papers 2023-11, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  28. Salman, Muhammad, 2025. "Germany’s energy security strategy in times of turmoil: The role of AI-driven energy systems and environmental policy in the Russian gas exit," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
  29. Di Bella, Gabriel & Flanagan, Mark & Foda, Karim & Maslova, Svitlana & Pienkowski, Alex & Stuermer, Martin & Toscani, Frederik, 2024. "Natural gas in Europe: The potential impact of disruptions to supply," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
  30. Alexander Sandkamp, 2022. "Reshoring by Decree? The Effects of Decoupling Europe from Global Value Chains," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(6), pages 359-362, November.
  31. Bobasu, Alina & Dobrew, Michael & Repele, Amalia, 2025. "Energy price shocks, monetary policy and inequality," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
  32. Sigit Perdana & Marc Vielle & Maxime Schenckery, 2022. "European Economic impacts of cutting energy imports from Russia : A computable general equilibrium analysis," Post-Print hal-03887431, HAL.
  33. Maria‐Grazia Attinasi & Lukas Boeckelmann & Baptiste Meunier, 2025. "The economic costs of supply chain decoupling," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 598-627, March.
  34. Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick, 2024. "What if? The macroeconomic and distributional effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(364), pages 1157-1200, October.
  35. Maksym Chepeliev & Thomas Hertel & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2022. "Cutting Russia's fossil fuel exports: Short‐term economic pain for long‐term environmental gain," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(11), pages 3314-3343, November.
  36. Hornbach, Jens & Rammer, Christian, 2024. "Energy price shocks and short-time reactions of firms: The case of the german energy crisis in 2022," ZEW Discussion Papers 24-075, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  37. Dräger, Lena & Gründler, Klaus & Potrafke, Niklas, 2025. "Political shocks and inflation expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
  38. Hinterlang, Natascha & Jäger, Marius & Stähler, Nikolai & Strobel, Johannes, 2024. "On curbing the rise in energy prices: An examination of different mitigation approaches," Discussion Papers 09/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  39. Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Ben Jabeur, Sami, 2024. "Could the Russia-Ukraine war stir up the persistent memory of interconnectivity among Islamic equity markets, energy commodities, and environmental factors?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  40. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2025. "Natural gas and the macroeconomy: Not all energy shocks are alike," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  41. Veronika Grimm & Andreas Löschel & Karen Pittel, 2022. "Die Folgen eines russischen Erdgasembargos [The Consequences of an Embargo on Russian Gas]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(4), pages 251-255, April.
  42. Pichler, Anton & Hurt, Jan & Reisch, Tobias & Stangl, Johannes & Thurner, Stefan, 2024. "Economic impacts of a drastic gas supply shock and short-term mitigation strategies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
  43. Trebesch, Christoph & Antezza, Arianna & Bushnell, Katelyn & Frank, André & Frank, Pascal & Franz, Lukas & Kharitonov, Ivan & Kumar, Bharath & Rebinskaya, Ekaterina & Schramm, Stefan, 2023. "The Ukraine Support Tracker: Which countries help Ukraine and how?," Kiel Working Papers 2218, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), revised 2023.
  44. Sielker Franziska & Dannenberg Peter, 2025. "New economic geographies of war: risks and disruptions in Eurasian transport routes and supply chains through the military conflict in Ukraine," ZFW – Advances in Economic Geography, De Gruyter, vol. 69(1), pages 41-54.
  45. Egan, Paul & Bergin, Adele & O'Toole, Conor, 2023. "The potential impact of the war in Ukraine on the Irish economy," Papers WP759, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  46. Dalvit,Nicolo & Iootty De Paiva Dias,Mariana & Melecky,Martin & Srinivasan,Nithya, 2023. "Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and Firm Performance in Central Asia : The Role of Export Links and Digital Gains," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10557, The World Bank.
  47. Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Ben Mcwilliams & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick & Georg Zachmann, 2022. "How it can be done," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03880930, HAL.
    • Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Ben McWilliams & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick & Georg Zachmann, 2022. "How it can be done," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 034, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    • Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Ben Mcwilliams & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick & Georg Zachmann, 2022. "How it can be done," Working Papers hal-03880930, HAL.
  48. Yasuyuki TODO, 2025. "Reconsidering Supply Chains and Industrial Policy from the Economic Security Perspective," Policy Discussion Papers 25005, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  49. Peter K. Kruse-Andersen, 2022. "Climate Policy in the Shadow of National Security," Discussion Papers 22-01, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  50. Gradzewicz, Michał & Jabłonowski, Janusz & Sasiela, Michał & Żółkiewski, Zbigniew, 2024. "The impact of energy price increases on the Polish economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
  51. Fetzer, Thiemo & Lambert, Peter John & Feld, Bennet & Garg, Prashant, 2024. "AI-Generated Production Networks: Measurement and Applications to Global Trade," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 733, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  52. Ricardo Hausmann & Agata Łoskot-Strachota & Axel Ockenfels & Ulrich Schetter & Simone Tagliapietra & Guntram Wolff & Georg Zachmann, 2022. "Cutting Putin’s Energy Rent: 'Smart Sanctioning' Russian Oil and Gas," CID Working Papers 412, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  53. Mats Kröger & Karsten Neuhoff & Sebastian Schwenen, 2025. "Contracts in Crisis: The War in Ukraine and Long-Term Contracts in Energy Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2118, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  54. Peter Levell & Martin O'Connell & Kate Smith, 2025. "The welfare effects of price shocks and household relief packages: evidence from an energy crisis," IFS Working Papers W25/55, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  55. Marco Flaccadoro, 2024. "The recent weakness in the German manufacturing sector," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 902, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  56. Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Enrica Di Stefano & Vanessa Gunnella & Michele Mancini & Ludovic Panon, 2022. "Quantitative assessment of the economic impact of the trade disruptions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 700, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  57. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2024. "Networks, Barriers, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(2), pages 505-541, March.
  58. Sophie M. Behr & Till Köveker & Merve Kücük, 2025. "Understanding Energy Savings in a Crisis: The Role of Prices and Non-monetary Factors," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2112, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  59. Erik Braun & Emese Braun & András Gyimesi & Zita Iloskics & Tamás Sebestyén, 2023. "Exposure to trade disruptions in case of the Russia–Ukraine conflict: A product network approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(10), pages 2950-2982, October.
  60. Mohr, Cathrin & Trebesch, Christoph, 2025. "Geoeconomics," Kiel Working Papers 2279, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  61. Becko, John Sturm, 2024. "A theory of economic sanctions as terms-of-trade manipulation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
  62. Baqaee, David & Hinz, Julian & Moll, Benjamin & Schularick, Moritz & Teti, Feodora A. & Wanner, Joschka & Yang, Sihwan, 2024. "Was wäre wenn? Die Auswirkungen einer harten Abkopplung von China auf die deutsche Wirtschaft [What if? The effects of a hard decoupling from China on the German economy]," Kiel Policy Briefs 170, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  63. Brunsch, Daniel & Radek, Julian & Ostmeier, Lars & Weber, Christoph, 2025. "Midterm perspectives on natural gas after the European gas crisis: Reviewing German energy transition studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
  64. Markus Dertwinkel‐Kalt & Christian Wey, 2025. "Why “Energy Price Brakes” Encourage Moral Hazard, Raise Energy Prices, and Reinforce Energy Savings," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 56(2), pages 129-144, June.
  65. de Souza, Gustavo & Hu, Naiyuan & Li, Haishi & Mei, Yuan, 2024. "(Trade) War and peace: How to impose international trade sanctions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  66. Peter Levell & Martin O'Connell & Kate Smith, 2025. "The welfare effects of price shocks and household relief packages: evidence from an energy crisis," IFS Working Papers W25/03, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  67. Toda, Alexis Akira & Walsh, Kieran James, 2024. "Recent advances on uniqueness of competitive equilibrium," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
  68. Bernstein, Martin & Meyer, Josefin & O'Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj & Schularick, Moritz, 2025. "Economic insecurity: Trade dependencies and their weaponization in history," Kiel Working Papers 2295, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  69. Hinterlang, Natascha & Jäger, Marius & Stähler, Nikolai & Strobel, Johannes, 2025. "Transfers or subsidies? Comparing mitigation strategies for energy price shocks in a production network model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
  70. Braakmann, Nils & Dursun, Bahadir & Pickard, Harry, 2023. "Energy Price Shocks and the Demand for Energy-Efficient Housing: Evidence from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine," IZA Discussion Papers 15959, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  71. Baqaee, David & Hinz, Julian & Moll, Benjamin & Schularick, Moritz & Teti, Feodora A. & Wanner, Joschka & Yang, Sihwan, 2024. "What if? The effects of a hard decoupling from China on the German economy," Kiel Policy Briefs 170, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  72. Bojan Obrenovic & Danijela Godinic & Mato Njavro, 2024. "Sustaining company performance during the war-induced crisis using sourcing capability and substitute input," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(12), pages 30001-30026, December.
  73. Clemens, Marius & Röger, Werner, 2024. "What is the difference between fossil fuel embargo and price shocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  74. Pieroni, Valerio, 2023. "Energy shortages and aggregate demand: Output loss and unequal burden from HANK," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  75. Benjamin Moll & Moritz Schularick & Georg Zachmann, 2023. "Nicht einmal eine Rezession: Die große deutsche Gasdebatte im Rückblick," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 048, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
  76. Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus & Wey, Christian, 2023. "Why Germany's Gas Price Brake Encourages Moral Hazard and Raises Gas Prices," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277575, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  77. Daniele Colombo & Francesco Toni, 2025. "Understanding Gas Price Shocks: Elasticities, Volatilities, and Macroeconomic Transmission," LEM Papers Series 2025/20, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  78. Jérémi Montornès & Alexandre Bourgeois, 2025. "Made in France and Reshoring in Multi-Regional Input-Output Tables," Working papers 992, Banque de France.
  79. Sandu Mihai, 2025. "Evolution of Gas Prices - From the Start of the War in Ukraine to Today," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 19(1), pages 4766-4778.
  80. Javier Quintana, 2022. "Economic consequences of a hypothetical suspension of Russia-EU trade," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 2/2022.
  81. Gutsch, Alexandra & Schult, Christoph, 2025. "The German Energy Crisis: A TENK-based Fiscal Policy Analysis," IWH Discussion Papers 1/2025, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2025.
  82. Vasily Astrov & Mahdi Ghodsi & Richard Grieveson & Mario Holzner & Artem Kochnev & Michael Landesmann & Olga Pindyuk & Robert Stehrer & Maryna Tverdostup & Alexandra Bykova, 2022. "Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: assessment of the humanitarian, economic, and financial impact in the short and medium term," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 331-381, May.
  83. Khalil, Makram & Rouillard, Pierre & Strobel, Felix, 2025. "Import tariff transmission in a production network," VfS Annual Conference 2025 (Cologne): Revival of Industrial Policy 325404, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  84. Daniele Colombo & Francesco Toni, 2025. "Understanding Gas Price Shocks: Elasticities, Volatility and Macroeconomic Transmission," GREDEG Working Papers 2025-20, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
  85. Berezka Kateryna M. & Kovalchuk Olha Ya., 2023. "Associative Rules for Modeling International Security Decisions in the Context of the Ukrainian-Russian War. Preliminary Evaluations," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 23(2), pages 67-85, December.
  86. Krebs, Tom, 2022. "Economic consequences of a sudden stop of energy imports: The case of natural gas in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-021, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, revised 2022.
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