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On Wars, Sanctions and Sovereign Default

Author

Listed:
  • Javier Bianchi
  • César Sosa-Padilla

Abstract

This paper explores the role of restrictions on the use of international reserves as economic sanctions. We develop a simple model of the strategic game between a sanctioning (creditor) country and a sanctioned (debtor) country. We characterize how the sanctioning country should impose restrictions optimally, internalizing the geopolitical benefits and the potential losses of a default by the sanctioned country. A calibrated version of the model can account for the sequence of events leading to the Russian default. Moreover, it suggests that for every dollar of economic damage inflicted to Russia, the US is willing to give up 0.50 dollars of its own consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Bianchi & César Sosa-Padilla, 2022. "On Wars, Sanctions and Sovereign Default," NBER Working Papers 29989, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29989
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    Cited by:

    1. Wegener, Christoph & Basse, Tobias & Maiani, Stefano & Nguyen, Tam Huu, 2025. "Predictive power of oil prices on CDS spread dynamics of oil-producing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Konstantin Egorov & Vasily Korovkin & Alexey Makarin & Dzhamilya Nigmatulina, 2025. "Trade Sanctions," Working Papers 1516, Barcelona School of Economics.
    3. Konstantin Egorov & Vasily Korovkin & Alexey Makarin & Dzhamilya Nigmatulina, 2025. "Trade sanctions," Economics Working Papers 1920, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    4. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Maeng, Fred Seunghyun, 2023. "The Theory of Reserve Accumulation, Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 18644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Edoh, Eyah Denise, 2024. "Economic sanctions and sovereign debt default," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Becko, John Sturm, 2024. "A theory of economic sanctions as terms-of-trade manipulation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    7. Wu, Sihong & Michailova, Snejina, 2025. "How trade sanctions impact MNE subsidiaries in Russia: Responses to legitimacy concerns and performance," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(5).
    8. Mohamed M. Sraieb & Shahnawaz Muhammed & Vladimir Dženopoljac & Samet Gunay, 2025. "Determinants of Russia’s probability of default: evidence from domestic and global indicators," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 49(3), pages 854-882, September.
    9. Liu, Zhenhua & Wang, Yushu & Yuan, Xinting & Ding, Zhihua & Ji, Qiang, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and vulnerability of energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    10. Farah-Yacoub,Juan P. & Graf Von Luckner,Clemens Mathis Henrik & Ramalho,Rita & Reinhart,Carmen M., 2022. "The Social Costs of Sovereign Default," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10157, The World Bank.
    11. Yuying Jin & Xue Meng, 2024. "Interdependence and multilateral economic sanctions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 983-1003, March.
    12. Oleg Itskhoki & Dmitry Mukhin, 2022. "Sanctions and the Exchange Rate," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(3), pages 148-151, May.
    13. repec:cam:camjip:2319 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Ryan Chahrour & Rosen Valchev, 2024. "The Dollar in an Era of International Retrenchment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(3), pages 1042-1080, September.
    15. Bondarenko, Yevheniia & Lewis, Vivien & Rottner, Matthias & Schüler, Yves, 2024. "Geopolitical risk perceptions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    16. Lewis, Vivien & Puangjit, Sirikorn, 2025. "A simple model of geopolitical risk and sanctions," Discussion Papers 32/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Wegener, Christoph & Basse, Tobias & Maiani, Stefano & Nguyen, Tam Huu, 2025. "Predictive power of oil prices on CDS spread dynamics of oil-producing countries," Accountancy, Economics, and Finance Working Papers 2025-02, Heriot-Watt University, Department of Accountancy, Economics, and Finance.
    18. Ghironi, Fabio & Kim, Daisoon & Ozhan, Galip Kemal, 2025. "International trade and macroeconomic dynamics with sanctions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    19. Fabio Ghironi & Daisoon Kim & Galip Kemal Ozhan, 2024. "International Economic Sanctions and Third-Country Effects," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(2), pages 611-652, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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