IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/v146y2024ics0304393224000254.html

(Trade) War and peace: How to impose international trade sanctions

Author

Listed:
  • de Souza, Gustavo
  • Hu, Naiyuan
  • Li, Haishi
  • Mei, Yuan

Abstract

What is the most cost-efficient way to impose trade sanctions against Russia? We build a quantitative model of international trade with input–output connections. Sanctioning countries choose import tariffs to simultaneously maximize their income and minimize Russia’s income, with different weights placed on these objectives. We find, first, that for countries with low willingness to pay for sanctions against Russia, the most cost-efficient sanction is an approximately 20% tariff on all Russian products. Second, if countries are willing to pay at least US$0.70 for each US$1 drop in Russian welfare, an embargo on Russia’s mining and energy products is the most cost-efficient policy.

Suggested Citation

  • de Souza, Gustavo & Hu, Naiyuan & Li, Haishi & Mei, Yuan, 2024. "(Trade) War and peace: How to impose international trade sanctions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:146:y:2024:i:c:s0304393224000254
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103572
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393224000254
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103572?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Besedeš, Tibor & Goldbach, Stefan & Nitsch, Volker, 2021. "Cheap talk? Financial sanctions and non-financial firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    2. Guido Lorenzoni & Iván Werning, 2023. "A Minimalist Model for the Ruble during the Russian Invasion of Ukraine," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 347-356, September.
    3. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Kirilakha, Aleksandra & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Yalcin, Erdal & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "The global sanctions data base," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Pol Antras & Davin Chor & Thibault Fally & Russell Hillberry, 2012. "Measuring the Upstreamness of Production and Trade Flows," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 412-416, May.
    5. Feenstra, Robert C, 1994. "New Product Varieties and the Measurement of International Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 157-177, March.
    6. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 5, pages 123-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Ohyun Kwon & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto Yotov, 2022. "The Extraterritorial Effects of Sanctions," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2022-3, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    8. John Sturm, 2023. "How Should Sanctions Account for Bystander Countries?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 39-42, May.
    9. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Kimberly Ann Elliott, 1999. "Same Song, Same Refrain? Economic Sanctions in the 1990's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 403-408, May.
    10. Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "What if? The economic effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03881469, HAL.
    11. Marc F. Bellemare & Casey J. Wichman, 2020. "Elasticities and the Inverse Hyperbolic Sine Transformation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(1), pages 50-61, February.
    12. Sandra Sequeira, 2016. "Corruption, Trade Costs, and Gains from Tariff Liberalization: Evidence from Southern Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 3029-3063, October.
    13. Gaulier, Guillaume & Zignago, Soledad, 2004. "Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version," MPRA Paper 32401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Joakim Gullstrand, 2020. "What goes around comes around: The effects of sanctions on Swedish firms in the wake of the Ukraine crisis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(9), pages 2315-2342, September.
    15. Mirko Draca & Jason Garred & Leanne Stickland & Nele Warrinnier, 2023. "On Target? Sanctions and the Economic Interests of Elite Policymakers in Iran," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(649), pages 159-200.
    16. Ahn, Daniel P. & Ludema, Rodney D., 2020. "The sword and the shield: The economics of targeted sanctions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    17. Ralph Ossa, 2014. "Trade Wars and Trade Talks with Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 4104-4146, December.
    18. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Morgan, T. Clifton & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Yotov, Yoto V., 2021. "Understanding economic sanctions: Interdisciplinary perspectives on theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    19. Bown, Chad P., 2005. "Global antidumping database version 1.0," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3737, The World Bank.
    20. Oleg Itskhoki & Dmitry Mukhin, 2022. "Sanctions and the Exchange Rate," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(3), pages 148-151, May.
    21. Sonali Chowdhry & Julian Hinz & Katrin Kamin & Joschka Wanner, 2024. "Brothers in arms: the value of coalitions in sanctions regimes," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 39(118), pages 471-512.
    22. Gabriel Felbermayr & Constantinos Syropoulos & Erdal Yalcin & Yoto Yotov, 2020. "On the Heterogeneous Effects of Sanctions on Trade and Welfare: Evidence from the Sanctions on Iran and a New Database," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2020-4, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    23. Hinz, Julian & Monastyrenko, Evgenii, 2022. "Bearing the cost of politics: Consumer prices and welfare in Russia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    24. Kyle Bagwell & Robert W. Staiger & Ali Yurukoglu, 2021. "Quantitative Analysis of Multiparty Tariff Negotiations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1595-1631, July.
    25. Ezra Oberfield & Devesh Raval, 2021. "Micro Data and Macro Technology," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 703-732, March.
    26. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2020. "Friendly fire: the trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(101), pages 97-146.
    27. Gustavo de Souza & Haishi Li, 2022. "The Employment Consequences of Anti-Dumping Tariffs: Lessons from Brazil," Working Paper Series WP 2022-46, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    28. Bagwell, Kyle & Staiger, Robert W, 1990. "A Theory of Managed Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 779-795, September.
    29. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro, 2015. "Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 1-44.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cai, Sheng & Xiang, Wei, 2025. "Multinational production, technology diffusion, and economic growth," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    2. repec:bcp:journl:v:9:y:2025:i:10:p:7075-7089 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Funke, Michael & Wende, Adrian, 2025. "The limited effectiveness of sanctions on Russia: Modeling loopholes and workarounds," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2025, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. Gustavo de Souza & Haishi Li & Ziho Park & Yulin Wang, 2025. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Supply Chain Disruptions: Firm-Level Evidence from "Liberation Day"," CESifo Working Paper Series 12285, CESifo.
    5. repec:ces:ceswps:_11654 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Yusheng Feng & Haishi Li & Siwei Wang & Min Zhu, 2025. "Industrial Policy and Retaliatory Protection under the WTO: Lessons from China," CESifo Working Paper Series 11982, CESifo.
    7. Cathrin Mohr & Christoph Trebesch, 2025. "Geoeconomics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 17(1), pages 563-587, August.
    8. Li, Haishi, 2026. "Multinational production and global shock propagation during the great recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    9. Aleksandr Shirobokov, 2025. "Sanctions Induced Terms of Trade Shocks and the Role of Lean Against the Wind Policy," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 211-242, June.
    10. Badran, Moustapha & Awada, Mohamed & Darwiche, Joanna & Boungou, Whelsy, 2025. "How do geopolitical risks and uncertainty shape US consumer confidence?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    11. Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Michele Mancini & Giacomo Romanini & Simona Giglioli & Alessandro Borin & Maria Grazia Attinasi & Lukas Boeckelmann & Baptiste Meunier, 2025. "Fragmentation and the future of GVCs," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 932, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Haishi Li & Zhi Li & Ziho Park & Yulin Wang & Jing Wu, 2024. "To Comply or Not to Comply: Understanding Neutral Country Supply Chain Responses to Russian Sanctions," CESifo Working Paper Series 11110, CESifo.
    13. Junyuan Chen & Carlos André Góes & Marc-Andreas Muendler & Fabian Trottner, 2026. "Dynamic Adjustment to Trade Shocks," NBER Working Papers 35013, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Konstantin Egorov & Vasily Korovkin & Alexey Makarin & Dzhamilya Nigmatulina, 2025. "Trade Sanctions," CESifo Working Paper Series 12341, CESifo.
      • Egorov, Konstantin & Korovkin, Vasily & Makarin, Alexey & Nigmatulina, Dzhamilya, 2025. "Trade sanctions," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2025, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
      • Konstantin Egorov & Vasily Korovkin & Alexey Makarin & Dzhamilya Nigmatulina, 2025. "Trade Sanctions," Working Papers 1516, Barcelona School of Economics.
      • Konstantin Egorov & Vasily Korovkin & Alexey Makarin & Dzhamilya Nigmatulina, 2025. "Trade sanctions," Economics Working Papers 1920, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    15. Eoin McGuirk & Christoph Trebesch, 2025. "Geoeconomics and conflict: A review and open questions," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 40(123), pages 683-715.
    16. Funke, Michael & Wende, Adrian, 2025. "The Limited Effectiveness of Sanctions on Russia: Modeling Loopholes and Workarounds," VfS Annual Conference 2025 (Cologne): Revival of Industrial Policy 325396, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Le Xu & Francesco Zanetti, 2025. "Charting the Uncharted: The (Un)Intended Consequences of Oil Sanctions and Dark Shipping," CESifo Working Paper Series 11684, CESifo.
    18. Spiro, Daniel & Wachtmeister, Henrik & Gars, Johan, 2025. "Assessing the impacts of oil sanctions on Russia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    19. Douch, Mustapha & Wu, Yupei & Gao, Bo, 2025. "Impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian trade: Firm-level evidence from the NTR act," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    20. Sjöholm, Fredrik, 2026. "Chinese Export Gains, EU Export Losses, and Russian Import Reorientation after the 2022 Sanctions," Working Paper Series 1560, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    21. Ryan Chahrour & Rosen Valchev, 2024. "The Dollar in an Era of International Retrenchment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(3), pages 1042-1080, September.
    22. Johan Gars & Daniel Spiro & Henrik Wachtmeister, 2025. "Winners and losers of a Russian oil-export restriction," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 205(3), pages 387-417, December.
    23. Moustapha Badran & Mohamed Awada & Joanna Darwiche & Whelsy Boungou, 2025. "How do geopolitical risks and uncertainty shape US consumer confidence?," Post-Print hal-05083249, HAL.
    24. Erdal Yalcin & Gabriel Felbermayr & Heider Kariem & Aleksandra Kirilakha & Ohyun Kwon & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2025. "The Global Sanctions Data Base—Release 4: The Heterogeneous Effects of the Sanctions on Russia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(9), pages 2003-2017, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gustavo de Souza & Naiyuan Hu & Haishi Li & Yuan Mei, 2023. "(Trade) War and Peace: How to Impose International Trade Sanctions," CESifo Working Paper Series 10477, CESifo.
    2. Gustavo de Souza & Naiyuan Hu & Haishi Li & Yuan Mei, 2022. "(Trade) War and Peace: How to Impose International Trade Sanctions," Working Paper Series WP 2022-49, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. Douch, Mustapha & Wu, Yupei & Gao, Bo, 2025. "Impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian trade: Firm-level evidence from the NTR act," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    4. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2024. "Do China and Russia undermine Western sanctions? Evidence from DiD and event study estimation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 132-160, February.
    5. Görg, Holger & Jacobs, Anna & Meuchelböck, Saskia, 2024. "Who is to suffer? Quantifying the impact of sanctions on German firms," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    6. Tyazhelnikov, Vladimir & Romalis, John, 2024. "Russian counter-sanctions and smuggling: Forensics with structural gravity estimation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    7. Petrevski, Goran, 2025. "Economic sanctions and output growth: Empirical evidence," EconStor Preprints 325283, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. Haishi Li & Zhi Li & Ziho Park & Yulin Wang & Jing Wu, 2024. "To Comply or Not to Comply: Understanding Neutral Country Supply Chain Responses to Russian Sanctions," CESifo Working Paper Series 11110, CESifo.
    9. Becko, John Sturm, 2024. "A theory of economic sanctions as terms-of-trade manipulation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    10. Lisandra Flach & Inga Heiland & Mario Larch & Marina Steininger & Feodora A. Teti, 2024. "Quantifying the partial and general equilibrium effects of sanctions on Russia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 281-323, February.
    11. Ina C. Jäkel & Søren Østervig & Erdal Yalcin, 2024. "The effects of heterogeneous sanctions on exporting firms: Evidence from Denmark," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 161-189, February.
    12. Antoine Berthou, 2023. "International sanctions and the dollar: Evidence from trade invoicing," Working papers 924, Banque de France.
    13. Gutmann, Jerg & Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2023. "The economic effects of international sanctions: An event study," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1214-1231.
    14. Avdeenko, Alexandra & Kaiser, Maximilian & Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Reher, Leonie, 2026. "Sanctions, sales, and stigma: Intermediary online firms’ market role in sustaining trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    15. Ricardo Hausmann & Ulrich Schetter & Muhammed A Yildirim, 2024. "On the design of effective sanctions: the case of bans on exports to Russia," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 39(117), pages 109-153.
    16. Hinz, Julian & Monastyrenko, Evgenii, 2022. "Bearing the cost of politics: Consumer prices and welfare in Russia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    17. Miguel Ángel Almazán‐Gómez & Carlos Llano & Julián Pérez & Daniel Rauhut, 2024. "Socioeconomic impacts of Russian invasion of Ukraine: A multiregional assessment for Europe," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 333-354, March.
    18. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2024. "Political Economy of International Sanctions," Research Papers in Economics 2024-07, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    19. Gabriel Felbermayr & Hendrik Mahlkow & Alexander Sandkamp, 2023. "Cutting through the value chain: the long-run effects of decoupling the East from the West," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 75-108, February.
    20. Tristan Kohl & Marcel van den Berg & Loe Franssen, 2024. "Going Dutch? Firm exports and FDI in the wake of the 2014 EU‐Russia sanctions," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 190-222, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:146:y:2024:i:c:s0304393224000254. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.