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How do geopolitical risks and uncertainty shape US consumer confidence?

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  • Badran, Moustapha
  • Awada, Mohamed
  • Darwiche, Joanna
  • Boungou, Whelsy

Abstract

This study examines the impact of trade and monetary policy uncertainty during geopolitical shocks on U.S. consumer confidence. Using monthly data from January 1993 to June 2024, we find that both trade and monetary policy uncertainties have significantly shaped U.S. consumer confidence during major geopolitical events. Moreover, trade policy uncertainty significantly worsens consumer confidence during heightened geopolitical tension, while monetary policy uncertainty tends to stabilize sentiment. Our findings suggest that policymakers should implement clear and consistent trade policies during geopolitical unrest and effectively use monetary policy to reassure consumers. Ultimately, this research underscores the importance of addressing trade and monetary uncertainties to bolster economic resilience and enhance consumer confidence in challenging times.

Suggested Citation

  • Badran, Moustapha & Awada, Mohamed & Darwiche, Joanna & Boungou, Whelsy, 2025. "How do geopolitical risks and uncertainty shape US consumer confidence?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:247:y:2025:i:c:s0165176524005998
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112115
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Geopolitical risk; Trade policy uncertainty; Monetary policy uncertainty; Consumer confidence; Behavioral economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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