IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v86y2023ipbs0301420723009339.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of geopolitical risk on energy security: Evidence from a GMM panel VAR approach

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Bin
  • Liu, Zuyao
  • Wang, Zhaohua
  • Zhang, Shuang

Abstract

Energy security plays a crucial role in a country's long-term economic development. This study investigates the impact of geopolitical risks on energy security in China by employing a panel VAR model, and using provincial panel data from 1994 to 2021. The findings reveal that the relationship between geopolitical risk and energy security is dynamic and inconsistently negative. Notably, variations in regional resource endowments within China contribute to varying levels of susceptibility to geopolitical risks. Specifically, the eastern region demonstrates heightened sensitivity, experiencing significant impacts, while the western region is comparatively less affected. This study recommends Maintaining stable geopolitical risks will improve regional energy security. In addition, promoting renewable energy will also enhance national energy security. This study suggests the fluctuating relationship between geopolitical risks and energy, and suggests strengthening industrial transformation and renewable energy utilization to improve energy security.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Bin & Liu, Zuyao & Wang, Zhaohua & Zhang, Shuang, 2023. "The impact of geopolitical risk on energy security: Evidence from a GMM panel VAR approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:86:y:2023:i:pb:s0301420723009339
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104222
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420723009339
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104222?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Bin & Zhang, Yingnan & Li, Jia & Song, Yanwu & Wang, Zhaohua, 2023. "Does the energy efficiency of buildings bring price premiums? Evidence from urban micro-level energy data," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    2. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    3. Topcu, Ebru & Altinoz, Buket & Aslan, Alper, 2020. "Global evidence from the link between economic growth, natural resources, energy consumption, and gross capital formation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Lu, Hongfang & Xu, FengYing & Liu, Hongxiao & Wang, Jun & Campbell, Daniel E. & Ren, Hai, 2019. "Emergy-based analysis of the energy security of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 123-135.
    5. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bonato, Matteo & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Geopolitical risks and stock market dynamics of the BRICS," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 295-306.
    6. Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Xin Sheng, 2020. "Time-Varying Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 692-706, August.
    7. Aloui, Riadh & Ben Jabeur, Sami & Rezgui, Hichem & Ben Arfi, Wissal, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and commodity future returns: Fresh insights from dynamic copula conditional value-at-risk approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    8. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2019. "Point and density forecasts of oil returns: The role of geopolitical risks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 580-587.
    9. Wang, Jiangquan & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Song, Malin, 2021. "Evaluating energy economic security and its influencing factors in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    10. Yao, Lixia & Chang, Youngho, 2014. "Energy security in China: A quantitative analysis and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 595-604.
    11. Gong, Xu & Sun, Yi & Du, Zhili, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and China's oil security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    12. Ren, Xiaohang & An, Yaning & Jin, Chenglu, 2023. "The asymmetric effect of geopolitical risk on China's crude oil prices: New evidence from a QARDL approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    13. Yu, Zhen & Xiao, Yao & Li, Jinpo, 2021. "How does geopolitical uncertainty affect Chinese overseas investment in the energy sector? Evidence from the South China Sea Dispute," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    14. Cao, Lansheng & Gu, Ming & Jin, Ding & Wang, Changyan, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and economic security: Exploring natural resources extraction from BRICS region," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    15. Chen, Si-Yuan & Xue, Meng-Tian & Wang, Zhao-Hua & Tian, Xin & Zhang, Bin, 2022. "Exploring pathways of phasing out clean heating subsidies for rural residential buildings in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    16. Krane, Jim & Medlock, Kenneth B., 2018. "Geopolitical dimensions of US oil security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 558-565.
    17. Shittu, Waliu & Adedoyin, Festus Fatai & Shah, Muhammad Ibrahim & Musibau, Hammed Oluwaseyi, 2021. "An investigation of the nexus between natural resources, environmental performance, energy security and environmental degradation: Evidence from Asia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    18. Ding, Tao & Li, Hao & Tan, Ruipeng & Zhao, Xin, 2023. "How does geopolitical risk affect carbon emissions?: An empirical study from the perspective of mineral resources extraction in OECD countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    19. Song, Yuegang & Zhang, Xiaoyu & Hu, Guoheng, 2023. "Relationships among geopolitical risk, trade policy uncertainty, and crude oil import prices: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    20. Pan, Xiongfeng & Wang, Yuqing & Tian, Mengyuan & Feng, Shenghan & Ai, Bowei, 2023. "Spatio-temporal impulse effect of foreign direct investment on intra- and inter-regional carbon emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).
    21. Li, Jinchao & Wang, Lina & Lin, Xiaoshan & Qu, Shen, 2020. "Analysis of China’s energy security evaluation system: Based on the energy security data from 30 provinces from 2010 to 2016," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    22. Wu, Jie & Zhao, Ruizeng & Sun, Jiasen & Zhou, Xuewei, 2023. "Impact of geopolitical risks on oil price fluctuations: Based on GARCH-MIDAS model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    23. Ferreira, João J. & Gomes, Sofia & Lopes, João M. & Zhang, Justin Z., 2023. "Ticking time bombs: The MENA and SSA regions' geopolitical risks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    24. Liu, Haiying & Pata, Ugur Korkut & Zafar, Muhammad Wasif & Kartal, Mustafa Tevfik & Karlilar, Selin & Caglar, Abdullah Emre, 2023. "Do oil and natural gas prices affect carbon efficiency? Daily evidence from China by wavelet transform-based approaches," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    25. Wang, Guoyu & Gu, Xiao & Shen, Xi & Uktamov, Khusniddin Fakhriddinovich & Ageli, Mohammed Moosa, 2023. "A dual risk perspective of China's resources market: Geopolitical risk and political risk," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    26. Zhao, Xiaochun & Jiang, Mei & Wu, Zijun & Zhou, Ying, 2023. "Quantitative evaluation of China's energy security policy under the background of intensifying geopolitical conflicts: Based on PMC model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    27. Boyd, Roger & Ufimtseva, Anastasia, 2021. "Facilitating peaceful rise: The increasing role of geopolitics and domestic legitimacy in China's energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    28. Maria-Eleni K. Agoraki & Georgios P. Kouretas & Nikiforos T. Laopodis, 2022. "Geopolitical risks, uncertainty, and stock market performance," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 253-265, July.
    29. Chen, Yong & Liu, Dingming, 2018. "Government spending shocks and the real exchange rate in China: Evidence from a sign-restricted VAR model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 543-554.
    30. Wang, Zhaohua & Liu, Qiang & Zhang, Bin, 2022. "What kinds of building energy-saving retrofit projects should be preferred? Efficiency evaluation with three-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    31. Monge, Manuel & Romero Rojo, María Fátima & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2023. "The impact of geopolitical risk on the behavior of oil prices and freight rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    32. Khan, Khalid & Khurshid, Adnan & Cifuentes-Faura, Javier, 2023. "Energy security analysis in a geopolitically volatile world: A causal study," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    33. Wang, Kai-Hua & Su, Chi-Wei & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Geopolitical risk and crude oil security: A Chinese perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    34. Abid, Ilyes & Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Kaabia, Olfa & Tarchella, Salma, 2023. "Geopolitical risk on energy, agriculture, livestock, precious and industrial metals: New insights from a Markov Switching model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    35. Dong, Zhaoyingzi & Xia, Chuyu & Fang, Kai & Zhang, Weiwen, 2022. "Effect of the carbon emissions trading policy on the co-benefits of carbon emissions reduction and air pollution control," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    36. Wang, Fei & Liu, Xiaoyan, 2023. "Resources extraction and geopolitical risk: A novel perspective of World's biggest economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    37. Jong‐Eun Lee, 2019. "The world stock markets under geopolitical risks: Dependence structure," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(6), pages 1898-1930, June.
    38. Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo & de Castro, Carlos & Arto, Iñaki, 2017. "Assessing vulnerabilities and limits in the transition to renewable energies: Land requirements under 100% solar energy scenarios," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 760-782.
    39. Zhang, Bin & Chen, Haitao & Du, Zhanjie & Wang, Zhaohua, 2020. "Does license plate rule induce low-carbon choices in residents’ daily travels: Motivation and impacts," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    40. Cui, Lianbiao & Yue, Suyun & Nghiem, Xuan-Hoa & Duan, Mei, 2023. "Exploring the risk and economic vulnerability of global energy supply chain interruption in the context of Russo-Ukrainian war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    41. Gong, Xiao-Li & Feng, Yong-Kang & Liu, Jian-Min & Xiong, Xiong, 2023. "Study on international energy market and geopolitical risk contagion based on complex network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wu, Jie & Zhao, Ruizeng & Sun, Jiasen & Zhou, Xuewei, 2023. "Impact of geopolitical risks on oil price fluctuations: Based on GARCH-MIDAS model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    2. Wang, Kai-Hua & Su, Chi-Wei & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Geopolitical risk and crude oil security: A Chinese perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    3. Xiao, Jihong & Wen, Fenghua & He, Zhifang, 2023. "Impact of geopolitical risks on investor attention and speculation in the oil market: Evidence from nonlinear and time-varying analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    4. Zhu, Bo & Deng, Yuanyue & Hu, Xin, 2023. "Global energy security: Do internal and external risk spillovers matter? A multilayer network method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Wang, Kai-Hua & Zhao, Yan-Xin & Su, Yun Hsuan & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2023. "Energy security and CO2 emissions: New evidence from time-varying and quantile-varying aspects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    6. Ahmet Faruk Aysan & Ali Polat & Hasan Tekin & Ahmet Tunali, 2022. "The Ascent of Geopolitics: Scientometric Analysis and Ramifications of Geopolitical Risk," Working Papers hal-03638273, HAL.
    7. Layal Mansour-Ichrakieh, 2021. "The Impact of Israeli and Saudi Arabian Geopolitical Risks on the Lebanese Financial Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-24, February.
    8. Yang, Jianlei & Yang, Chunpeng, 2021. "The impact of mixed-frequency geopolitical risk on stock market returns," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 226-240.
    9. Zhang, Yulian & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2022. "A connectedness analysis among BRICS’s geopolitical risks and the US macroeconomy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 182-203.
    10. Sohag, Kazi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Mariev, Oleg & Safonova, Yulia, 2022. "Do geopolitical events transmit opportunity or threat to green markets? Decomposed measures of geopolitical risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    11. Ding, Shusheng & Wang, Kaihao & Cui, Tianxiang & Du, Min, 2023. "The time-varying impact of geopolitical risk on natural resource prices: The post-COVID era evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    12. Li, Sufang & Tu, Dalun & Zeng, Yan & Gong, Chenggang & Yuan, Di, 2022. "Does geopolitical risk matter in crude oil and stock markets? Evidence from disaggregated data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    13. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Tang, Huayun & Li, Ding, 2022. "The roles of oil shocks and geopolitical uncertainties on China’s green bond returns," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 494-505.
    14. Kai-Hua Wang & Jia-Min Kan & Cui-Feng Jiang & Chi-Wei Su, 2022. "Is Geopolitical Risk Powerful Enough to Affect Carbon Dioxide Emissions? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-16, June.
    15. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2022. "Evidence from a multiple and partial wavelet analysis on the impact of geopolitical concerns on stock markets in North-East Asian countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    16. Tang, Yumei & Chen, Xihui Haviour & Sarker, Provash Kumer & Baroudi, Sarra, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks and uncertainties on green bond markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    17. Guo, Kun & Luan, Liyuan & Cai, Xiaoli & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang, 2024. "Energy trade stability of China: Policy options with increasing climate risks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    18. Muğaloğlu, Erhan & Kuşkaya, Sevda & Aldieri, Luigi & Alnour, Mohammed & Hoque, Mohammad Enamul & Magazzino, Cosimo & Bilgili, Faik, 2023. "Dynamic regime differences in the market behavior of primary natural resources in response to geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    19. Gong, Xu & Sun, Yi & Du, Zhili, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and China's oil security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    20. Aloui, Donia & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Guesmi, Khaled & Mzoughi, Hela, 2023. "Managing natural resource prices in a geopolitical risk environment," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:86:y:2023:i:pb:s0301420723009339. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.