IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/cbsnow/2024_015.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does Geopolitical Risk Accelerate Climate Vulnerability? New Evidence from the European Green Deal

Author

Listed:
  • Dong, Kangyin

    (School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China)

  • Yang, Senmiao

    (International Business Strategy Institute, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China)

  • Wang, Jianda

    (Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China)

  • Nepal, Rabindra

    (School of Business, Faculty of Business and Law, University of Wollongong, Australia)

  • Jamasb, Tooraj

    (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School)

Abstract

This paper studies 41 countries from 1995 to 2021 and uses the European Green Deal (EGD) as an example to explore the impact of policy intervention on the relationship between geopolitical risk and climate vulnerability. The main findings show that: (1) Geopolitical risk can exacerbate climate vulnerability, primarily manifested in negative impacts on food, water, health, and ecosystems. (2) Green transition and green investment can mitigate the adverse impact of geopolitical risk on climate vulnerability. (3) The positive effect of the EGD on the green transition and green investment can further mitigate climate vulnerability caused by geopolitical conflicts. This study provides practical approaches and references for policymakers to reduce the impact of geopolitical conflicts and enhance climate resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong, Kangyin & Yang, Senmiao & Wang, Jianda & Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2024. "Does Geopolitical Risk Accelerate Climate Vulnerability? New Evidence from the European Green Deal," Working Papers 15-2024, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2024_015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/10398/c51ed85e-6e0e-402b-9e47-fda8ddf7ed88
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: Full text not avaiable
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simone Borghesi & Sergio Vergalli, 2022. "The European Green Deal, Energy Transition and Decarbonization," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(1), pages 1-3, September.
    2. Drakos, Konstantinos, 2010. "Terrorism activity, investor sentiment, and stock returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 128-135, August.
    3. Pata, Ugur Korkut & Alola, Andrew Adewale & Erdogan, Sinan & Kartal, Mustafa Tevfik, 2023. "The influence of income, economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and urbanization on renewable energy investments in G7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    4. Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Xin Sheng, 2020. "Time-Varying Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 692-706, August.
    5. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    6. Hussain, Syed Asad & Razi, Faran & Hewage, Kasun & Sadiq, Rehan, 2023. "The perspective of energy poverty and 1st energy crisis of green transition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    7. Ilona Reindl, 2022. "Wealth and Vulnerability to Climate Change: An Experimental Study on Burden Sharing among Heterogeneous Agents," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(4), pages 791-823, August.
    8. Arfaoui, Nadia & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Maherzi, Teja & Kayani, Umar Nawaz, 2024. "Can green investment funds hedge climate risk?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    9. Hu, Zinan & Borjigin, Sumuya, 2024. "The amplifying role of geopolitical Risks, economic policy Uncertainty, and climate risks on Energy-Stock market volatility spillover across economic cycles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    10. Gu, Qinen & Li, Shaofang & Tian, Sihua & Wang, Yuyouting, 2023. "Climate, geopolitical, and energy market risk interconnectedness: Evidence from a new climate risk index," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    11. Dutta, Anupam & Dutta, Probal, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and renewable energy asset prices: Implications for sustainable development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 518-525.
    12. Bovera, Filippo & Lo Schiavo, Luca, 2022. "From energy communities to sector coupling:a taxonomy for regulatory experimentation in the age of the European Green Deal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    13. Karine Constant & Marion Davin, 2019. "Unequal Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Transmission of Adverse Effects Through International Trade," Post-Print hal-04215353, HAL.
    14. Karine Constant & Marion Davin, 2019. "Unequal Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Transmission of Adverse Effects Through International Trade," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(2), pages 727-759, October.
    15. repec:hal:journl:halshs-02103586 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jin, Yi & Zhao, Hang & Bu, Lin & Zhang, Dayong, 2023. "Geopolitical risk, climate risk and energy markets: A dynamic spillover analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    17. Stein T. Holden & Mesfin Tilahun, 2024. "Can Climate Shocks Make Vulnerable Subjects More Willing to Take Risks?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(4), pages 967-1007, April.
    18. Baur, Dirk G. & Smales, Lee A., 2020. "Hedging geopolitical risk with precious metals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    19. Ding, Tao & Li, Hao & Tan, Ruipeng & Zhao, Xin, 2023. "How does geopolitical risk affect carbon emissions?: An empirical study from the perspective of mineral resources extraction in OECD countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    20. Zhang, Bin & Liu, Zuyao & Wang, Zhaohua & Zhang, Shuang, 2023. "The impact of geopolitical risk on energy security: Evidence from a GMM panel VAR approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    21. Pietzcker, Robert C. & Osorio, Sebastian & Rodrigues, Renato, 2021. "Tightening EU ETS targets in line with the European Green Deal: Impacts on the decarbonization of the EU power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    22. Abrahams, Daniel, 2020. "Conflict in abundance and peacebuilding in scarcity: Challenges and opportunities in addressing climate change and conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    23. Cassetti, Gabriele & Boitier, Baptiste & Elia, Alessia & Le Mouël, Pierre & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Zagamé, Paul & Nikas, Alexandros & Koasidis, Konstantinos & Doukas, Haris & Chiodi, Alessandro, 2023. "The interplay among COVID-19 economic recovery, behavioural changes, and the European Green Deal: An energy-economic modelling perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    24. Zhao, Zuoxiang & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Marco Chi Keung & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Patel, Gupteswar & Khalfaoui, Rabeh, 2023. "The impact of geopolitical risks on renewable energy demand in OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    25. Belaïd, Fateh & Al-Sarihi, Aisha & Al-Mestneer, Raed, 2023. "Balancing climate mitigation and energy security goals amid converging global energy crises: The role of green investments," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 534-542.
    26. Wen, Jun & Zhang, Sen & Chang, Chun-Ping & Anugrah, Donni Fajar & Affandi, Yoga, 2023. "Does climate vulnerability promote green investment under energy supply restriction?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    27. Ren, Xiaohang & Xiao, Ya & Xiao, Shitong & Jin, Yi & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2024. "The effect of climate vulnerability on global carbon emissions: Evidence from a spatial convergence perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    28. Muhammad Khalid Anser & Qasim Raza Syed & Hooi Hooi Lean & Andrew Adewale Alola & Munir Ahmad, 2021. "Do Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk Lead to Environmental Degradation? Evidence from Emerging Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-15, May.
    29. Qianqian, Ding & Bashir, Uzma & Chunqiao, Tan, 2024. "The criticality of natural resources in financial development: Does geopolitical risk make any difference?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    30. Fagbemi, Fisayo & Oke, Dorcas Funmilola, 2024. "Climate change vulnerability-foreign direct investment linkage: Why climate change preparedness matters in Sub-Saharan Africa," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 52-60.
    31. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lou, Runchi & Wang, Fuhao, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the sustainable utilization of natural resources: Evidence from developing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    32. Anis Omri & Fateh Belaïd, 2021. "Does renewable energy modulate the negative effect of environmental issues on the socio-economic welfare?," Post-Print hal-03271499, HAL.
    33. Pal, Shreya & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Zhao, Qiuyun & Liu, Fan & Soliman, Alaa M., 2024. "Boosting productive capacity in OECD countries: Unveiling the roles of geopolitical risk and globalization," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    34. Dong, Kangyin & Liu, Yang & Wang, Jianda & Dong, Xiucheng, 2024. "Is the digital economy an effective tool for decreasing energy vulnerability? A global case," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    35. Hans Visser & Arthur Petersen & Willem Ligtvoet, 2014. "On the relation between weather-related disaster impacts, vulnerability and climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 461-477, August.
    36. Banna, Hasanul & Alam, Ashraful & Chen, Xihui Haviour & Alam, Ahmed W., 2023. "Energy security and economic stability: The role of inflation and war," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    37. Ngo, Vu Minh & Nguyen, Phuc Van & Hoang, Yen Hai, 2024. "The impacts of geopolitical risks on gold, oil and financial reserve management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    38. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Yuan, Zihao & He, Zhi-Wen & Xiao, Fu, 2024. "Do geopolitical risks always harm energy security? Their non-linear effects and mechanism," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    39. Mastini, Riccardo & Kallis, Giorgos & Hickel, Jason, 2021. "A Green New Deal without growth?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    40. Kai-Hua Wang & Jia-Min Kan & Cui-Feng Jiang & Chi-Wei Su, 2022. "Is Geopolitical Risk Powerful Enough to Affect Carbon Dioxide Emissions? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-16, June.
    41. Li, Yabo & Teng, Rui & Iqbal, Mubasher, 2023. "Natural resources rent and climate vulnerability: An inverted U-shaped relationship moderated by productive capacity, trade openness, and urbanization in resource-abundant countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    42. Alsagr, Naif & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2024. "Natural resources rent and green investment: Does institutional quality matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    43. Pietzcker, Robert & Osorio, Sebastian & Rodrigues, Renato, 2021. "Tightening EU ETS targets in line with the European Green Deal: Impacts on the decarbonization of the EU power sector," EconStor Preprints 222579, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2021.
    44. Panarello, Demetrio & Gatto, Andrea, 2023. "Decarbonising Europe – EU citizens’ perception of renewable energy transition amidst the European Green Deal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    45. Sarah Wolf & Jonas Teitge & Jahel Mielke & Franziska Schütze & Carlo Jaeger, 2021. "The European Green Deal — More Than Climate Neutrality," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 56(2), pages 99-107, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Zheng-Zheng & Meng, Qin & Zhang, Linling & Lobont, Oana-Ramona & Shen, Yijuan, 2023. "How do rare earth prices respond to economic and geopolitical factors?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    2. Pham, Linh & Hsu, Kuang-Chung, 2025. "Metals of the future in a world in crisis: Geopolitical disruptions and the cleantech metal industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    3. Wang, Xinya & Rong, Xueyun & Yin, Lei, 2024. "Discerning the impact of global geopolitical risks on China's energy futures market spillovers: Evidence from higher-order moments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Liu, Jiahao & Zhu, Bo & Hu, Xin, 2024. "Systemic risk spillovers among global energy firms: Does geopolitical risk matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Hu, Zinan & Borjigin, Sumuya, 2024. "The amplifying role of geopolitical Risks, economic policy Uncertainty, and climate risks on Energy-Stock market volatility spillover across economic cycles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Tamilselvan, M. & Halder, Abhishek & Kannadhasan, M., 2024. "Exploring the ingredients, mixtures, and inclinations of geopolitical risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 187-206.
    7. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Ben Zaied, Younes, 2024. "Does geopolitical uncertainty matter for the diffusion of clean energy?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Zhang, Xiuqi & Meng, Xiangyu & Su, Chi Wei, 2024. "The security of energy import: Do economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk really matter?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 377-388.
    9. Ben Jabeur, Sami & Bakkar, Yassine & Cepni, Oguzhan, 2025. "Do global COVOL and geopolitical risks affect clean energy prices? Evidence from explainable artificial intelligence models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    10. Afonso, António & Alves, José & Monteiro, Sofia, 2024. "Beyond borders: Assessing the influence of Geopolitical tensions on sovereign risk dynamics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    11. Ullah, Sana & Gozgor, Giray & Lu, Zhou, 2024. "How do conflicts affect energy security risk? Evidence from major energy-consuming economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 175-187.
    12. Chen, Zhuoyi & Liu, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Hongwei, 2024. "Can geopolitical risks impact the long-run correlation between crude oil and clean energy markets? Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    13. Khan, Nasir & Mejri, Sami & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2024. "How do global commodities react to increasing geopolitical risks? New insights into the Russia-Ukraine and Palestine-Israel conflicts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    14. Kisswani, Khalid M. & Fikru, Mahelet G., 2025. "The dynamic nexus between economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and natural resource rents of ASEAN-5 countries: Insights from the novel Fourier augmented ARDL method (FAARDL)," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    15. Kamila Pronińska & Krzysztof Księżopolski, 2021. "Baltic Offshore Wind Energy Development—Poland’s Public Policy Tools Analysis and the Geostrategic Implications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-17, August.
    16. Foglia, Matteo & Palomba, Giulio & Tedeschi, Marco, 2023. "Disentangling the geopolitical risk and its effects on commodities. Evidence from a panel of G8 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    17. Yue, Tian & Li, Lu-Lu & Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2024. "Smirking in the energy market: Evidence from the Chinese crude oil options market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    18. Li, Aihong, 2023. "An application of extenics, spatial factors, and natural resource market in China: The role of artificial intelligence and geopolitical risk," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    19. Shahzad, Umer & Mohammed, Kamel Si & Tiwari, Sunil & Nakonieczny, Joanna & Nesterowicz, Renata, 2023. "Connectedness between geopolitical risk, financial instability indices and precious metals markets: Novel findings from Russia Ukraine conflict perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    20. McCauley, Darren & Pettigrew, Kerry A. & Todd, Iain & Milchram, Christine, 2023. "Leaders and laggards in the pursuit of an EU just transition," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    The European Green Deal; Geopolitical risk; Climate vulnerability; Green transition; Green investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2024_015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CBS Library Research Registration Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/incbsdk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.