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A Minimalist Model for the Ruble during the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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  • Guido Lorenzoni
  • Iván Werning

Abstract

This note isolates an overlooked economic force for the ruble to appreciate in response to international sanctions limiting exports to Russia. The intuition is that when Russians are unable to buy the mix of foreign goods they wish, foreign goods become less attractive, increasing demand for domestic goods. To reestablish an equilibrium, a real appreciation is needed to raise the relative price of domestic goods and incentivize imports from nonsanctioning countries. We also review well-known forces for depreciation. Our analysis emphasizes that the exchange rate is an inadequate signal of the welfare impact and of the effectiveness of sanctions.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Lorenzoni & Iván Werning, 2023. "A Minimalist Model for the Ruble during the Russian Invasion of Ukraine," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 347-356, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aerins:v:5:y:2023:i:3:p:347-56
    DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20220303
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    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid

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