IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jet/dpaper/dpaper857.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The trade effect of economic sanctions: evidence from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Hayakawa,Kazunobu
  • Kumagai,Satoru

Abstract

This study investigates the trade effects of the 2022 Russia–Ukraine war. We examine monthly data on bilateral trade between 40 countries and their 220 partner countries from January 2021 to May 2022. Estimating a gravity-type equation for this monthly dataset, we investigate how several key players, including the Western countries, China, and India, change their trade after February 2022. Our main findings are summarized as follows. On average, Western countries’ exports to and imports from Russia did not change significantly because some of them that have greater reliance on trade with Russia increased their trade with Russia. Nevertheless, the precision machinery industry found a significant decrease in the Western countries’ exports to Russia. Moreover, we found significant changes in the Western countries’ trade with Belarus and Ukraine in addition to those in Russia’s trade with China and India.

Suggested Citation

  • Hayakawa,Kazunobu & Kumagai,Satoru, 2022. "The trade effect of economic sanctions: evidence from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict," IDE Discussion Papers 857, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper857
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ir.ide.go.jp/?action=repository_action_common_download&item_id=53510&item_no=1&attribute_id=22&file_no=1
    File Function: First version, 2022
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mario Larch & Jeff Luckstead & Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "Economic Sanctions and Agricultural Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 9410, CESifo.
    2. Guido Lorenzoni & Iván Werning, 2022. "A Minimalist Model for the Ruble During the Russian Invasion of Ukraine," NBER Working Papers 29929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jamal Ibrahim Haidar, 2017. "Sanctions and export deflection: evidence from Iran," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 32(90), pages 319-355.
    4. Basnet, Anup & Blomkvist, Magnus & Galariotis, Emilios, 2022. "The role of ESG in the decision to stay or leave the market of an invading country: The case of Russia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    5. Boungou, Whelsy & Yatié, Alhonita, 2022. "The impact of the Ukraine–Russia war on world stock market returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    6. Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the energy and mining sectors," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1038-1063, July.
    7. Oleg Itskhoki & Dmitry Mukhin, 2022. "Sanctions and the Exchange Rate," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(3), pages 148-151, May.
    8. Angela Cheptea & Carl Gaigné, 2020. "Russian food embargo and the lost trade [Nonparametric counterfactual predictions in neoclassical models of international trade]," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 47(2), pages 684-718.
    9. Li, Yuhua & Jian, Ze & Tian, Wei & Zhao, Laixun, 2021. "How political conflicts distort bilateral trade: Firm-level evidence from China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 233-249.
    10. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2020. "Friendly fire: the trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 35(101), pages 97-146.
    11. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Yalcin, Erdal & Yotov, Yoto, 2020. "On the Heterogeneous Effects of Sanctions on Trade and Welfare: Evidence from the Sanctions on Iran and a New Database," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2020-4, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    12. Afesorgbor, Sylvanus Kwaku, 2019. "The impact of economic sanctions on international trade: How do threatened sanctions compare with imposed sanctions?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 11-26.
    13. Anup Basnet & Emilios Galariotis & Magnus Blomkvist, 2022. "The role of ESG in the decision to stay or leave the market of an invading country: The case of Russia," Post-Print hal-03689077, HAL.
    14. Anup Basnet & Magnus Blomkvist & Emilios Galariotis, 2022. "The role of ESG in the decision to stay or leave the market of an invading country: The case of Russia," Post-Print hal-03690634, HAL.
    15. Heilmann, Kilian, 2016. "Does political conflict hurt trade? Evidence from consumer boycotts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 179-191.
    16. Tosun, Onur Kemal & Eshraghi, Arman, 2022. "Corporate decisions in times of war: Evidence from the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marcus Biermann & Elsa Leromain, 2023. "The indirect effect of the Russian-Ukrainian war through international linkages: early evidence from the stock market," CEP Discussion Papers dp1899, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Fatemeh Rahimzadeh & Hamed Pirpour & Bahman P. Ebrahimi, 2022. "The impact of economic sanctions on the efficiency of bilateral energy exports: the case of Iran," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(9), pages 1-18, September.
    3. Aldunate, Felipe & Gonzalez, Felipe & Prem, Mounu, 2021. "Make the Economy Scream? U.S. Banks and Foreign Firms During the Cold War," SocArXiv bhwk7, Center for Open Science.
    4. Hinz, Julian & Monastyrenko, Evgenii, 2022. "Bearing the cost of politics: Consumer prices and welfare in Russia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Crozet, Matthieu & Hinz, Julian & Stammann, Amrei & Wanner, Joschka, 2021. "Worth the pain? Firms’ exporting behaviour to countries under sanctions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    6. Gutmann, Jerg & Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2021. "The Economic Effects of International Sanctions: An Event Study," ILE Working Paper Series 49, University of Hamburg, Institute of Law and Economics.
    7. Vincenzo Bove & Jessica Di Salvatore & Roberto Nisticò, 2021. "Economic sanctions and trade flows in the neighbourhood," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-184, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Larch, Mario & Luckstead, Jeff & Yotov, Yoto, 2021. "Economic Sanctions and Agricultural Trade," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-16, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    9. Tran Manh Ha & Doan Ngoc Thang, 2023. "Economic sanction and global sourcing complexity: A cross‐country analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 1017-1050, April.
    10. Li, Haoran & Wan, Xibo & Zhang, Wendong, 2021. "How do Firms Respond to Long-term Political Tensions? Evidence from Chinese Food Importers," ISU General Staff Papers 202106020700001118, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Ricardo Hausmann & Ulrich Schetter & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2022. "On the Design of Effective Sanctions: The Case of Bans on Exports to Russia," CID Working Papers 417, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    12. Meyer, Klaus E. & Fang, Tony & Panibratov, Andrei Y. & Peng, Mike W. & Gaur, Ajai, 2023. "International business under sanctions," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2).
    13. Li, Haoran & Wan, Xibo & Zhang, Wendong, 2020. "How do Firms Respond to Political Tensions? Evidence from Chinese Food Importers," ISU General Staff Papers 202011250800001118, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the energy and mining sectors," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1038-1063, July.
    15. Görg, Holger & Jacobs, Anna & Meuchelböck, Saskia, 2023. "Who Is to Suffer? Quantifying the Impact of Sanctions on German Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 16146, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Firat Demir & Saleh S. Tabrizy, 2022. "Gendered effects of sanctions on manufacturing employment: Evidence from Iran," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 2040-2069, November.
    17. Michal Onderco & Reinout Arthur van der Veer, 2021. "No More Gouda in Moscow? Distributive Effects of the Imposition of Sanctions," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(6), pages 1345-1363, November.
    18. Besedeš, Tibor & Goldbach, Stefan & Nitsch, Volker, 2022. "Smart or smash? The effect of financial sanctions on trade in goods and services," Discussion Papers 28/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Görg, Holger & Jacobs, Anna & Meuchelböck, Saskia, 2023. "Who is to suffer? Quantifying the impact of sanctions on German firms," Kiel Working Papers 2248, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Mario Larch & Jeff Luckstead & Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "Economic Sanctions and Agricultural Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 9410, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic sanctions|Trade|Russia|Ukraine;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper857. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/idegvjp.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michitaka Imamitsu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/idegvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.