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Ruble resilience or euro dominance? The impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the euro-ruble exchange rate

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  • Mati, Sagiru
  • Ismael, Goran Yousif
  • Alsakarneh, Raad Abdelhalim Ibrahim
  • Aliyu, Nazifi

Abstract

The ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war changes the dynamics of macroeconomic variables, including the Euro-Ruble exchange rate. While existing studies model the immediate impact of the war on the Euro-Ruble exchange rate, a comprehensive understanding of the war’s steady-state effect on the Euro-Ruble parity remains crucial. To this end, the current study investigates the immediate and steady-state impacts of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the Euro-Ruble exchange rate using an intervention time series approach. The study finds that the immediate impact of the war resulted in a 21 % reduction in the daily growth rate of the Euro-Ruble exchange rate. However, the steady-state effect translates to a 26 % reduction in growth. Our findings have implications for trade, inflation, and investment across both European and Russian economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Mati, Sagiru & Ismael, Goran Yousif & Alsakarneh, Raad Abdelhalim Ibrahim & Aliyu, Nazifi, 2026. "Ruble resilience or euro dominance? The impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the euro-ruble exchange rate," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 60-72.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:48:y:2026:i:1:p:60-72
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.020
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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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