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Trade Effects of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict: Can Neutral Countries Really Fish in Troubled Waters?

Author

Listed:
  • Kazunobu Hayakawa
  • Satoru Kumagai

Abstract

We investigate the trade effects of the 2022 Russia–Ukraine conflict. Specifically, we examine the impact of multinational enterprises (MNEs) from Western countries on exports to Russia from neutral countries. To accomplish this, we investigate exports from 36 neutral countries. We found that, on average, neutral countries significantly increased their exports to Russia after its invasion. However, the increase in exports to Russia was smaller in neutral countries with a greater presence of MNEs from Western countries (e.g., a 51% decrease in exports from a neutral country with their greatest presence).

Suggested Citation

  • Kazunobu Hayakawa & Satoru Kumagai, 2026. "Trade Effects of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict: Can Neutral Countries Really Fish in Troubled Waters?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 73(3), July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:73:y:2026:i:3:n:e70060
    DOI: 10.1111/sjpe.70060
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hayakawa,Kazunobu & Keola,Souknilanh, 2025. "Trade Effects of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict in Thailand: The Impacts of Sanctions on Trade from a Neutral Country," IDE Discussion Papers 972, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    3. Kazunobu HAYAKAWA & Keiko ITO, 2025. "The Collateral Damage of US Export Control Regulations on Japanese Suppliers’ Exports to China," Discussion papers 25061, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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