IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_11982.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Industrial Policy and Retaliatory Protection under the WTO: Lessons from China

Author

Listed:
  • Yusheng Feng
  • Haishi Li
  • Siwei Wang
  • Min Zhu

Abstract

Using Chinese firm-level trade data combined with global anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) investigations, we uncover a previously overlooked cost of industrial policy under WTO agreements. At every stage of AD/CVD investigation, subsidies significantly raise the probability of affirmative tariff rulings and lead to higher imposed tariffs. Firms that received larger subsidies are also less likely to be granted firm-specific duties, which are lower than the product-level duties applied to all other firms exporting the investigated product. While AD/CVD duties create a moderate trade barrier that an average Chinese firm expects to face, they represent a significant cost of subsidy for those heavily subsidized and those potentially receiving firm-specific duties. The intended benefits of industrial subsidies are partially offset by increased foreign trade protection: AD/CVD duties induced by subsidies reduced the subsidy effect on firm revenue growth by 22%.

Suggested Citation

  • Yusheng Feng & Haishi Li & Siwei Wang & Min Zhu, 2025. "Industrial Policy and Retaliatory Protection under the WTO: Lessons from China," CESifo Working Paper Series 11982, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11982
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp11982.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert W. Staiger & Frank A. Wolak, 1994. "Measuring Industry-Specific Protection: Antidumping in the United States," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1994 Micr), pages 51-118.
    2. Cerqua, Augusto & Pellegrini, Guido, 2014. "Do subsidies to private capital boost firms' growth? A multiple regression discontinuity design approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 114-126.
    3. Cao, Linyi & Jiang, Helu & Li, Guangwei & Zhu, Lijun, 2024. "Haste makes waste? Quantity-based subsidies under heterogeneous innovations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    4. Bruce Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2006. "Helping Infant Economies Grow: Foundations of Trade Policies for Developing Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 141-146, May.
    5. Mauro Caselli & Jiuli Huang & Chiara Tomasi & Min Zhu, 2023. "Anti-dumping and product quality," Discussion Papers 2023-08, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    6. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2009. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1403-1448.
    7. Robert Z. Lawrence & David E. Weinstein, 1999. "Trade and Growth: Import-Led or Export-Led? Evidence From Japan and Korea," NBER Working Papers 7264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ju, Jiandong & Ma, Hong & Wang, Zi & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2024. "Trade wars and industrial policy competitions: Understanding the US-China economic conflicts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 42-58.
    9. Stefano Schiavo & Chiara Tomasi & Min Zhu, 2021. "Anti-dumping activities against China: patterns and effects," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(1), pages 7-30, April.
    10. Blalock, Garrick & Gertler, Paul J., 2008. "Welfare gains from Foreign Direct Investment through technology transfer to local suppliers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 402-421, March.
    11. Rebecca Achee Thornton & Peter Thompson, 2001. "Learning from Experience and Learning from Others: An Exploration of Learning and Spillovers in Wartime Shipbuilding," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1350-1368, December.
    12. Harrison, Ann E, 1994. "An Empirical Test of the Infant Industry Argument: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 1090-1095, September.
    13. Yi Lu & Jin Wang & Lianming Zhu, 2019. "Place-Based Policies, Creation, and Agglomeration Economies: Evidence from China's Economic Zone Program," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 325-360, August.
    14. Minho Kim & Munseob Lee & Yongseok Shin, 2021. "The Plant-Level View of an Industrial Policy: The Korean Heavy Industry Drive of 1973," NBER Working Papers 29252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. de Souza, Gustavo & Hu, Naiyuan & Li, Haishi & Mei, Yuan, 2024. "(Trade) War and peace: How to impose international trade sanctions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nathaniel Lane, 2020. "The New Empirics of Industrial Policy," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 209-234, June.
    2. Lane, Nathaniel, 2016. "Manufacturing Revolutions: Industrial Policy and Industrialization in South Korea," SocArXiv 6tqax, Center for Open Science.
    3. Harrison, Ann E. & Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 2009. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy," MPRA Paper 15561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Enghin Atalay & Ali Hortacsu & Mustafa Runyun & Chad Syverson & Mehmet Fatih Ulu, 2023. "Micro- and Macroeconomic Impacts of a Place-Based Industrial Policy," Working Papers 23-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Han, Yi & Wu, Mingqin, 2024. "Inter-regional barriers and economic growth: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    6. Philippe Aghion & Jing Cai & Mathias Dewatripont & Luosha Du & Ann Harrison & Patrick Legros, 2022. "Industrial Policy and Competition," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Globalization, Firms, and Workers, chapter 15, pages 349-380, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Joel Rodrigue, 2014. "Multinational Production, Exports and Aggregate Productivity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 243-261, April.
    8. Bailey, Warren & Muradoglu, Gulnur & Onay, Ceylan & Phylaktis, Kate, 2024. "Foreign investors, firm level productivity, and European economic integration," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    9. Abhay Aneja & Nirupama Kulkarni & S. K. Ritadhi, 2021. "Consumption Tax Reform and the Real Economy: Evidence From India's Adoption of a Value‐Added Tax," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(3), pages 569-602, September.
    10. Xiaolin Yu & Kai Wan, 2025. "Can removing regional barriers reduce carbon emissions in border regions? Quasi-natural experiments from China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 1-29, April.
    11. Asatryan, Zareh & Baskaran, Thushyanthan & Birkholz, Carlo & Gomtsyan, David, 2021. "Favoritism and firms: Micro evidence and macro implications," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-031, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    12. Gao, Ming & Gu, Qiankun & He, Shijun, 2022. "Place-based policies, administrative hierarchy, and city growth: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    13. Jinguo Rao & Xiaosong Zhang & Duanqiang Zhai, 2024. "Does the Upgrading of Development Zones Improve Land Use Efficiency under the Net-Zero Carbon City Goal? Prefectural-Level Evidence from Quasi-Natural Experiments in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-22, August.
    14. Shawn Xiaoguang Chen & Yudan Cheng & Liutang Gong & Wenjia Tian, 2023. "A Big Push of Panda from the Ground: Land Subsidy and Structural Transformation in China," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 23-09, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    15. Mergele, Lukas & Hennicke, Moritz & Lubczyk, Moritz, 2025. "The big sell: Privatizing East Germany’s economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    16. Pavcnik, Nina & Goldberg, Pinelopi, 2016. "The Effects of Trade Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 11104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Javorcik, Beata S. & Li, Yue, 2013. "Do the biggest aisles serve a brighter future? Global retail chains and their implications for Romania," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 348-363.
    18. Yu, Jinliang & Qi, Yu, 2022. "BT-to-VAT reform and firm productivity: Evidence from a quasi-experiment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    19. Cui, Yi, 2024. "Place-based policies and capital misallocation: Evidence from Chinese cities," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(4).
    20. Justin Yifu Lin & Wei Wang & Venite Zhaoyang Xu, 2021. "Catch‐up industrial policy and economic transition in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 602-632, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • L52 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Industrial Policy; Sectoral Planning Methods
    • O25 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Industrial Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11982. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.