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Should we build more large dams? The actual costs of hydropower megaproject development

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Cited by:

  1. Bent Flyvbjerg, 2021. "Four Ways to Scale Up: Smart, Dumb, Forced, and Fumbled," Papers 2101.11104, arXiv.org.
  2. Ayobami Solomon Oyewo & Javier Farfan & Pasi Peltoniemi & Christian Breyer, 2018. "Repercussion of Large Scale Hydro Dam Deployment: The Case of Congo Grand Inga Hydro Project," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(4), pages 1-30, April.
  3. Hannula, I. & Reiner, D., 2017. "The race to solve the sustainable transport problem via carbon-neutral synthetic fuels and battery electric vehicles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1758, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  4. P. Urgilés & J. Claver & M. A. Sebastián, 2019. "Analysis of the Earned Value Management and Earned Schedule Techniques in Complex Hydroelectric Power Production Projects: Cost and Time Forecast," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-11, April.
  5. Gaudard, Ludovic, 2015. "Pumped-storage project: A short to long term investment analysis including climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 91-99.
  6. Bent Flyvbjerg & Alexander Budzier, 2019. "Report for the Commission of Inquiry Respecting the Muskrat Falls Project," Papers 1901.03698, arXiv.org.
  7. Sheila M. Olmstead & Hilary Sigman, 2015. "Damming the Commons: An Empirical Analysis of International Cooperation and Conflict in Dam Location," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(4), pages 497-526.
  8. Scott, Ryan P. & Scott, Tyler A., 2019. "Investing in collaboration for safety: Assessing grants to states for oil and gas distribution pipeline safety program enhancement," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 332-345.
  9. Edward G. J. Stevenson, 2018. "Plantation Development in the Turkana Basin: The Making of a New Desert?," Land, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(1), pages 1-11, January.
  10. Kirchherr, Julian & Matthews, Nathanial & Charles, Katrina J. & Walton, Matthew J., 2017. "“Learning it the Hard Way”: Social safeguards norms in Chinese-led dam projects in Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 529-539.
  11. Xie, Yang & Zilberman, David, 2015. "Water-Storage Capacities versus Water-Use Efficiency: Substitutes or Complements?," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211894, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  12. Fearnside, Philip M., 2016. "Environmental and Social Impacts of Hydroelectric Dams in Brazilian Amazonia: Implications for the Aluminum Industry," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 48-65.
  13. Hultkrantz, Lars & A. Krüger, Niclas & Mantalos, Panagiotis, 2014. "Risk-adjusted long-term social rates of discount for transportation infrastructure investment," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 70-81.
  14. Li, Yun & Li, Yanbin & Ji, Pengfei & Yang, Jing, 2015. "The status quo analysis and policy suggestions on promoting China׳s hydropower development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1071-1079.
  15. Lin, S. & Han, H., 2018. "Government size, institutional quality, and capital flows across regions in China: a specific exploration on the failure of capital flows across Shanhai Pass," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277515, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  16. Aniseh S. Bro & Emilio Moran & Miquéias Freitas Calvi, 2018. "Market Participation in the Age of Big Dams: The Belo Monte Hydroelectric Dam and Its Impact on Rural Agrarian Households," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(5), pages 1-15, May.
  17. Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2018. "Planning Fallacy or Hiding Hand: Which is the Better Explanation?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 383-386.
  18. James Randall Kahn & Carlos Edwar Freitas & Miguel Petrere, 2014. "False Shades of Green: The Case of Brazilian Amazonian Hydropower," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(9), pages 1-20, September.
  19. Richard Swanson & Vivek Sakhrani, 2016. "The effects of climate risk on hydropower P3 contract value: Preliminary study of the Inga 3 Dam," WIDER Working Paper Series 030, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  20. Santanu Chatterjee & Olaf Posch & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2017. "Delays in Public Goods," Working Papers 1702, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2017.
  21. Brookes, Naomi J. & Locatelli, Giorgio, 2015. "Power plants as megaprojects: Using empirics to shape policy, planning, and construction management," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 57-66.
  22. Andreea Cirstea, 2019. "Achieving Sustainable Development Through Hydropower– A Worldwide Approach," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 4, pages 39-46, August.
  23. Love, Peter E.D. & Ika, Lavagnon A. & Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D., 2019. "On de-bunking ‘fake news’ in a post truth era: Why does the Planning Fallacy explanation for cost overruns fall short?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 397-408.
  24. Foran, Tira & Kiik, Laur & Hatt, Sullivan & Fullbrook, David & Dawkins, Alice & Walker, Simon & Chen, Yun, 2017. "Large hydropower and legitimacy: a policy regime analysis, applied to Myanmar," MPRA Paper 80944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  25. Giorgio Locatelli, 2018. "Why are Megaprojects, Including Nuclear Power Plants, Delivered Overbudget and Late? Reasons and Remedies," Papers 1802.07312, arXiv.org.
  26. Hongyun Han & Shuang Lin, 2019. "Government Size and Regional Capital Flows in China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(23), pages 1-19, November.
  27. Dogmus, Özge Can & Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard, 2020. "The on-paper hydropower boom: A case study of corruption in the hydropower sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
  28. Anuja Shaktawat & Shelly Vadhera, 2021. "Risk management of hydropower projects for sustainable development: a review," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 45-76, January.
  29. Flyvbjerg, Bent & Ansar, Atif & Budzier, Alexander & Buhl, Søren & Cantarelli, Chantal & Garbuio, Massimo & Glenting, Carsten & Holm, Mette Skamris & Lovallo, Dan & Lunn, Daniel & Molin, Eric & Rønnes, 2018. "Five things you should know about cost overrun," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 174-190.
  30. Dogmus, Özge Can & Nielsen, Jonas Ø., 2019. "Is the hydropower boom actually taking place? A case study of a South East European country, Bosnia and Herzegovina," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 278-289.
  31. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gogas, Periklis, 2019. "Forecasting transportation demand for the U.S. market," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 195-214.
  32. Bent Flyvbjerg & Cass R. Sunstein, 2015. "The Principle of the Malevolent Hiding Hand; or, the Planning Fallacy Writ Large," Papers 1509.01526, arXiv.org.
  33. Kirchherr, Julian & Matthews, Nathanial, 2018. "Technology transfer in the hydropower industry: An analysis of Chinese dam developers’ undertakings in Europe and Latin America," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 546-558.
  34. Kirchherr, Julian & Ahrenshop, Mats-Philip & Charles, Katrina, 2019. "Resettlement lies: Suggestive evidence from 29 large dam projects," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 208-219.
  35. Awojobi, Omotola & Jenkins, Glenn P., 2015. "Were the hydro dams financed by the World Bank from 1976 to 2005 worthwhile?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 222-232.
  36. Olav Torp & Ole Jonny Klakegg, 2016. "Challenges in Cost Estimation under Uncertainty—A Case Study of the Decommissioning of Barsebäck Nuclear Power Plant," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(4), pages 1-21, October.
  37. Callegari, C. & Szklo, A. & Schaeffer, R., 2018. "Cost overruns and delays in energy megaprojects: How big is big enough?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 211-220.
  38. Julia Reis & Julie Shortridge, 2020. "Impact of Uncertainty Parameter Distribution on Robust Decision Making Outcomes for Climate Change Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(3), pages 494-511, March.
  39. Siciliano, Giuseppina & Urban, Frauke & Kim, Sour & Dara Lonn, Pich, 2015. "Hydropower, social priorities and the rural–urban development divide: The case of large dams in Cambodia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 273-285.
  40. A. Richard Swanson & Vivek Sakhrani, 2016. "The effects of climate risk on hydropower P3 contract value: Preliminary study of the Inga 3 Dam," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-30, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  41. Köberle, Alexandre C. & Garaffa, Rafael & Cunha, Bruno S.L. & Rochedo, Pedro & Lucena, André F.P. & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2018. "Are conventional energy megaprojects competitive? Suboptimal decisions related to cost overruns in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 689-700.
  42. Beatriz Mayor & Ignacio Rodríguez-Muñoz & Fermín Villarroya & Esperanza Montero & Elena López-Gunn, 2017. "The Role of Large and Small Scale Hydropower for Energy and Water Security in the Spanish Duero Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(10), pages 1-21, October.
  43. Beg, Sabrin, 2019. "Favoritism and flooding: Political alignment and allocation of irrigation water," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 175-195.
  44. McCombie, Charles & Jefferson, Michael, 2016. "Renewable and nuclear electricity: Comparison of environmental impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 758-769.
  45. Paul Terna Gbahabo & Oluseye Samuel Ajuwon, 2017. "Effects of Project Cost Overruns and Schedule Delays in Sub-Saharan Africa," European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies Articles, European Center for Science Education and Research, vol. 3, EJIS Janu.
  46. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "Measuring Economic Cost of Electricity Shortage: Current Challenges and Future Prospects in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 67164, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Oct 2015.
  47. Atif Ansar & Martin Pohlers, 2014. "Fluid populations, immobile assets: Synchronizing infrastructure investments with shifting demography," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 222-248, June.
  48. Roman, Philippe & Thiry, Géraldine, 2016. "The inclusive wealth index. A critical appraisal," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 185-192.
  49. Al-Noor Abdullah & Sanzidur Rahman & Stephen Essex & James Benhin, 2020. "Economic Contributions of Mega-Dam Infrastructure as Perceived by Local and Displaced Communities: A Case Study of Merowe Dam, Sudan," Agriculture, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(6), pages 1-24, June.
  50. Siciliano, Giuseppina & Urban, Frauke, 2017. "Equity-based Natural Resource Allocation for Infrastructure Development: Evidence From Large Hydropower Dams in Africa and Asia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 130-139.
  51. Glenn P. Jenkins & Saule Baurzhan & Author-Name: Godwin O. Olasehinde-Williams, 2018. "Evaluation of the Economic Performance of Hydropower Developments Supported by the World Bank Group 1975 to 2015," Development Discussion Papers 2018-06, JDI Executive Programs.
  52. Foran, Tira & Kiik, Laur & Hatt, Sullivan & Fullbrook, David & Dawkins, Alice & Walker, Simon & Chen, Yun, 2017. "Large hydropower and legitimacy: A policy regime analysis, applied to Myanmar," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 619-630.
  53. Fernandes, Gláucia & Lima Gomes, Leonardo & Teixeira Brandão, Luiz Eduardo, 2019. "Mitigating Hydrological Risk with Energy Derivatives," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 528-535.
  54. Michele Andreolli & Aidar Abdychev, 2016. "Investing in Electricity, Growth, and Debt Sustainability; The Case of Lesotho," IMF Working Papers 2016/115, International Monetary Fund.
  55. Rodolfo Garcia Sierra & Alvaro Zerda Sarmiento, 2016. "Hydropower Megaprojects in Colombia and the Influence of Local Communities: A View from Prospect Theory to Decision Making Process based on Expert Judgment used in Large Organizations," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 408-420.
  56. Spencer Wheatley & Benjamin Sovacool & Didier Sornette, 2017. "Of Disasters and Dragon Kings: A Statistical Analysis of Nuclear Power Incidents and Accidents," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(1), pages 99-115, January.
  57. Machado, Bruno Goulart F. & Bhagwat, Pradyumna C., 2020. "The impact of the generation mix on the current regulatory framework for hydropower remuneration in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  58. Bent Flyvbjerg & J. Rodney Turner, 2017. "Do Classics Exist in Megaproject Management?," Papers 1710.09678, arXiv.org.
  59. Massarutto, Antonio & Pontoni, Federico, 2015. "Rent seizing and environmental concerns: A parametric valuation of the Italian hydropower sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 31-40.
  60. Julian Kirchherr & Katrina Charles, 2018. "Enhancing the sample diversity of snowball samples: Recommendations from a research project on anti-dam movements in Southeast Asia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-17, August.
  61. Miranda Sarmento, J.J., 2014. "Public private partnerships," Other publications TiSEM c7d4c978-234c-4f88-83ed-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  62. Ole Jonny Klakegg, 2016. "Project Risk Management: Challenge Established Practice," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(4), pages 1-3, December.
  63. Hurford, A.P. & Harou, J.J. & Bonzanigo, L. & Ray, P.A. & Karki, P. & Bharati, L. & Chinnasamy, P., 2020. "Efficient and robust hydropower system design under uncertainty - A demonstration in Nepal," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  64. Atif Ansar & Bent Flyvbjerg & Alexander Budzier & Daniel Lunn, 2016. "Does infrastructure investment lead to economic growth or economic fragility? Evidence from China," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 360-390.
  65. Chen, Shaoqing & Chen, Bin & Fath, Brian D., 2015. "Assessing the cumulative environmental impact of hydropower construction on river systems based on energy network model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 78-92.
  66. Tamm, Ottar & Tamm, Toomas, 2020. "Verification of a robust method for sizing and siting the small hydropower run-of-river plant potential by using GIS," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 153-159.
  67. Awojobi, Omotola & Jenkins, Glenn P., 2016. "Managing the cost overrun risks of hydroelectric dams: An application of reference class forecasting techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 19-32.
  68. Tianyi Nie & Kunhui Ye, 2017. "Demystifying the Barriers to Transport Infrastructure Project Development in Fast Developing Regions: The Case of China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(10), pages 1-18, October.
  69. Atif Ansar & Bent Flyvbjerg & Alexander Budzier & Daniel Lunn, 2016. "Big is Fragile: An Attempt at Theorizing Scale," Papers 1603.01416, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
  70. Santanu Chatterjee & Olaf Posch & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2017. "Delays in Public Goods," Working Papers 1702, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2017.
  71. de Faria, Felipe A.M. & Davis, Alex & Severnini, Edson & Jaramillo, Paulina, 2017. "The local socio-economic impacts of large hydropower plant development in a developing country," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 533-544.
  72. Calvi, Miquéias Freitas & Moran, Emilio F. & Silva, Ramon Felipe Bicudo da & Batistella, Mateus, 2020. "The construction of the Belo Monte dam in the Brazilian Amazon and its consequences on regional rural labor," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
  73. Newbery, David, 2018. "Shifting demand and supply over time and space to manage intermittent generation: The economics of electrical storage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 711-720.
  74. Hennig, Thomas, 2016. "Damming the transnational Ayeyarwady basin. Hydropower and the water-energy nexus," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1232-1246.
  75. Fernandes, Gláucia & Gomes, Leonardo Lima & Brandão, Luiz Eduardo Teixeira, 2018. "A risk-hedging tool for hydro power plants," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 370-378.
  76. Ilka Deluque & Ekundayo Shittu & Jonathan Deason, 2018. "Evaluating the reliability of efficient energy technology portfolios," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 6(1), pages 115-138, June.
  77. Steinbuks, Jevgenijs & Satija, Gaurav & Zhao, Fu, 2017. "Sustainability of solar electricity: The role of endogenous resource substitution and cross-sectoral responses," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 218-232.
  78. Rebecca Peters & Jürgen Berlekamp & Ana Lucía & Vittoria Stefani & Klement Tockner & Christiane Zarfl, 2021. "Integrated Impact Assessment for Sustainable Hydropower Planning in the Vjosa Catchment (Greece, Albania)," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(3), pages 1-18, February.
  79. Samboko, Paul & Chapoto, Antony & Kuteya, Auckland & Kabwe, Stephen & Mofya-Mukuka, Rhoda & Mweemba, Bruno & Munsaka, Eustensia, 2016. "The Impact of Power Rationing on Zambia's Agricultural Sector," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 245111, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  80. Bent Flyvbjerg & Alexander Budzier & Daniel Lunn, 2020. "Regression to the Tail: Why the Olympics Blow Up," Papers 2009.14682, arXiv.org.
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