IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/hin/complx/3190830.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of the Earned Value Management and Earned Schedule Techniques in Complex Hydroelectric Power Production Projects: Cost and Time Forecast

Author

Listed:
  • P. Urgilés
  • J. Claver
  • M. A. Sebastián

Abstract

All projects take place within a context of uncertainty. That is especially noticeable in complex hydroelectric power generation projects, which are affected by factors such as the large number of multidisciplinary tasks to be performed in parallel, long execution times, or the risks inherent in various fields like geology, hydrology, and structural, electrical, and mechanical engineering, among others. Such factors often lead to cost overruns and delays in projects of this type. This paper analyzes the efficiency of the Earned Value Management technique and its Earned Schedule extension, as means of forecasting costs and deadlines when applied to complex hydroelectric power production projects. It is worth noting that this analysis was based on simulation models applied to real-life projects. The results showed that cost forecasting becomes very accurate over time, whereas duration forecasting is not reliably accurate.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Urgilés & J. Claver & M. A. Sebastián, 2019. "Analysis of the Earned Value Management and Earned Schedule Techniques in Complex Hydroelectric Power Production Projects: Cost and Time Forecast," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-11, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:complx:3190830
    DOI: 10.1155/2019/3190830
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/8503/2019/3190830.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/8503/2019/3190830.xml
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1155/2019/3190830?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Awojobi, Omotola & Jenkins, Glenn P., 2015. "Were the hydro dams financed by the World Bank from 1976 to 2005 worthwhile?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 222-232.
    2. Ansar, Atif & Flyvbjerg, Bent & Budzier, Alexander & Lunn, Daniel, 2014. "Should we build more large dams? The actual costs of hydropower megaproject development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 43-56.
    3. Luz Stella Cardona-Meza & Gerard Olivar-Tost, 2017. "Modeling and Simulation of Project Management through the PMBOK® Standard Using Complex Networks," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-12, December.
    4. José R. San Cristóbal & Luis Carral & Emma Diaz & José A. Fraguela & Gregorio Iglesias, 2018. "Complexity and Project Management: A General Overview," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-10, October.
    5. Jianbo Zhu & Qianqian Shi & Peng Wu & Zhaohan Sheng & Xiangyu Wang, 2018. "Complexity Analysis of Prefabrication Contractors’ Dynamic Price Competition in Mega Projects with Different Competition Strategies," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-9, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kubečková Darja & Smugala Stanislav, 2021. "Determination of construction process duration based on labor productivity estimation: A case study," Organization, Technology and Management in Construction, Sciendo, vol. 13(2), pages 2521-2538, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oyewo, Ayobami Solomon & Solomon, A.A. & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Aghahosseini, Arman & Mensah, Theophilus Nii Odai & Ram, Manish & Breyer, Christian, 2021. "Just transition towards defossilised energy systems for developing economies: A case study of Ethiopia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 346-365.
    2. Love, Peter E.D. & Ika, Lavagnon A. & Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D., 2019. "On de-bunking ‘fake news’ in a post truth era: Why does the Planning Fallacy explanation for cost overruns fall short?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 397-408.
    3. Anuja Shaktawat & Shelly Vadhera, 2021. "Risk management of hydropower projects for sustainable development: a review," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 45-76, January.
    4. Awojobi, Omotola & Jenkins, Glenn P., 2016. "Managing the cost overrun risks of hydroelectric dams: An application of reference class forecasting techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 19-32.
    5. Jenkins, G. & Olasehinde-Williams, G. & Baurzhan, S., 2022. "Is there a net economic loss from employing reference class forecasting in the appraisal of hydropower projects?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    6. Ayobami Solomon Oyewo & Javier Farfan & Pasi Peltoniemi & Christian Breyer, 2018. "Repercussion of Large Scale Hydro Dam Deployment: The Case of Congo Grand Inga Hydro Project," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-30, April.
    7. Kirchherr, Julian & Ahrenshop, Mats-Philip & Charles, Katrina, 2019. "Resettlement lies: Suggestive evidence from 29 large dam projects," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 208-219.
    8. Saule Baurzhan & Glenn P. Jenkins & Godwin O. Olasehinde-Williams, 2021. "The Economic Performance of Hydropower Dams Supported by the World Bank Group, 1975–2015," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-22, May.
    9. Saule Baurzhan & Glenn Jenkins & Godwin O. Olasehinde-Williams, 2021. "The Economic Performance of Hydropower Dams Supported by the World Bank Group, 1975–2015," Working Paper 1463, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    10. Callegari, C. & Szklo, A. & Schaeffer, R., 2018. "Cost overruns and delays in energy megaprojects: How big is big enough?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 211-220.
    11. Glenn P. Jenkins & Saule Baurzhan & Author-Name: Godwin O-Williams, 2018. "Evaluation of the Economic Performance of Hydropower Developments Supported by the World Bank Group 1975 to 2015," Development Discussion Papers 2018-06, JDI Executive Programs.
    12. A. Richard Swanson & Vivek Sakhrani, 2023. "Value–Risk Calculator for Blended Finance: A Systems Perspective of the Nachtigal Hydropower Project," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-22, June.
    13. Scott, Ryan P. & Scott, Tyler A., 2019. "Investing in collaboration for safety: Assessing grants to states for oil and gas distribution pipeline safety program enhancement," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 332-345.
    14. Al-Noor Abdullah & Sanzidur Rahman, 2021. "Social Impacts of a Mega-Dam Project as Perceived by Local, Resettled and Displaced Communities: A Case Study of Merowe Dam, Sudan," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-32, September.
    15. Shirley, Rebekah G. & Word, Jettie, 2018. "Rights, rivers and renewables: Lessons from hydropower conflict in Borneo on the role of cultural politics in energy planning for Small Island Developing States," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 189-199.
    16. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gogas, Periklis, 2019. "Forecasting transportation demand for the U.S. market," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 195-214.
    17. Sheila M. Olmstead & Hilary Sigman, 2015. "Damming the Commons: An Empirical Analysis of International Cooperation and Conflict in Dam Location," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(4), pages 497-526.
    18. Olav Torp & Ole Jonny Klakegg, 2016. "Challenges in Cost Estimation under Uncertainty—A Case Study of the Decommissioning of Barsebäck Nuclear Power Plant," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-21, October.
    19. Rajesh Savio, 2022. "Between Success and Failure: Integrating Agile Project Management Methods with PRINCE2 Framework for the Enhanced Management of Imperfect Projects," Eximia Journal, Plus Communication Consulting SRL, vol. 5(1), pages 24-32, July.
    20. Milan Daus & Katharina Koberger & Kaan Koca & Felix Beckers & Jorge Encinas Fernández & Barbara Weisbrod & Daniel Dietrich & Sabine Ulrike Gerbersdorf & Rüdiger Glaser & Stefan Haun & Hilmar Hofmann &, 2021. "Interdisciplinary Reservoir Management—A Tool for Sustainable Water Resources Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hin:complx:3190830. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mohamed Abdelhakeem (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.hindawi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.