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Is there a net economic loss from employing reference class forecasting in the appraisal of hydropower projects?

Author

Listed:
  • Glenn P. Jenkins

    (Department of Economics, Queens University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada, K7L3N6 and Cambridge Resources International Inc.)

  • Olasehinde G. Williams

    (Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria)

  • Saule Baurzhan

    (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, TRNC via Mersin 10, Turkey)

Abstract

This paper investigates the potential effects of the use of reference class forecasting on the World Bank's financing decisions and quantifies the net economic impact of such decisions in the long run. A set of 57 World Bank-financed hydropower projects constructed between 1975 and 2015 were selected based on data availability. The findings show that reference class forecasting can help reduce net losses by preventing some hydropower projects with negative economic net present values from being executed. However, it also leads to the forfeiture of even larger amounts of net economic benefits by causing the rejection of some projects that are found, from ex-post analysis, to be economically worthwhile. Furthermore, because of the increased ex-ante rejection of projects, the loss of potentially economically positive projects from the portfolio of hydro dam projects is greatly increased. The errors in the estimation of economic net present values of these hydropower projects are highly positively correlated to the errors in the estimation of the benefits and only weakly negatively correlated to the errors in the estimation of costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Glenn P. Jenkins & Olasehinde G. Williams & Saule Baurzhan, 2022. "Is there a net economic loss from employing reference class forecasting in the appraisal of hydropower projects?," Development Discussion Papers 2022-02, JDI Executive Programs.
    • Handle: RePEc:qed:dpaper:4580
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Awojobi, Omotola & Jenkins, Glenn P., 2015. "Were the hydro dams financed by the World Bank from 1976 to 2005 worthwhile?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 222-232.
    2. Bent Flyvbjerg, 2009. "Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets built--and what we can do about it," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 25(3), pages 344-367, Autumn.
    3. Awojobi, Omotola & Jenkins, Glenn P., 2016. "Managing the cost overrun risks of hydroelectric dams: An application of reference class forecasting techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 19-32.
    4. Saule Baurzhan & Glenn P. Jenkins & Godwin O. Olasehinde-Williams, 2021. "The Economic Performance of Hydropower Dams Supported by the World Bank Group, 1975–2015," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-22, May.
    5. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Bacon, Robert W & Besant-Jones, John E, 1998. "Estimating construction costs and schedules: Experience with power generation projects in developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 317-333, March.
    7. Love, Peter E.D. & Sing, Michael C.P. & Ika, Lavagnon A. & Newton, Sidney, 2019. "The cost performance of transportation projects: The fallacy of the Planning Fallacy account," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 1-20.
    8. Ansar, Atif & Flyvbjerg, Bent & Budzier, Alexander & Lunn, Daniel, 2014. "Should we build more large dams? The actual costs of hydropower megaproject development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 43-56.
    9. Saule Baurzhan & Glenn Jenkins & Godwin O. Olasehinde-Williams, 2021. "The Economic Performance of Hydropower Dams Supported by the World Bank Group, 1975–2015," Working Paper 1463, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    10. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Gilbert, Alex & Nugent, Daniel, 2014. "Risk, innovation, electricity infrastructure and construction cost overruns: Testing six hypotheses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 906-917.
    11. Flyvbjerg, Bent & Ansar, Atif & Budzier, Alexander & Buhl, Søren & Cantarelli, Chantal & Garbuio, Massimo & Glenting, Carsten & Holm, Mette Skamris & Lovallo, Dan & Lunn, Daniel & Molin, Eric & Rønnes, 2018. "Five things you should know about cost overrun," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 174-190.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reference Class Forecasting; Planners Fallacy; Hydropower; Cost Overruns; Economic Welfare; World Bank;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources

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