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The Failure of Models That Predict Failure: Distance, Incentives, and Defaults

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  1. Cortés, Kristle & Duchin, Ran & Sosyura, Denis, 2016. "Clouded judgment: The role of sentiment in credit origination," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 392-413.
  2. Rajkamal Iyer & Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Erzo F. P. Luttmer & Kelly Shue, 2016. "Screening Peers Softly: Inferring the Quality of Small Borrowers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(6), pages 1554-1577, June.
  3. Solomon Y. Deku & Alper Kara & Artur Semeyutin, 2021. "The predictive strength of MBS yield spreads during asset bubbles," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 111-142, January.
  4. Marco Migueis, 2019. "Evaluating the AMA and the new standardized approach for operational risk capital," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(4), pages 302-311, December.
  5. Mariassunta Giannetti & José María Liberti & Jason Sturgess, 2017. "Information Sharing and Rating Manipulation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(9), pages 3269-3304.
  6. Demiroglu, Cem & James, Christopher & Velioglu, Guner, 2022. "Why are commercial loan rates so sticky? The effect of private information on loan spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 959-972.
  7. Olivier Darmouni, 2020. "Informational Frictions and the Credit Crunch," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(4), pages 2055-2094, August.
  8. Benjamin Hébert, 2018. "Moral Hazard and the Optimality of Debt," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2214-2252.
  9. Marko Jakšič & Matej Marinč, 2019. "Relationship banking and information technology: the role of artificial intelligence and FinTech," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(1), pages 1-18, March.
  10. Pierri, Nicola & Timmer, Yannick, 2022. "The importance of technology in banking during a crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 88-104.
  11. Jane K. Dokko & Benjamin J. Keys & Lindsay E. Relihan, 2019. "Affordability, financial innovation and the start of the housing boom," CEP Discussion Papers dp1611, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  12. Yener Altunbas & Michiel van Leuvensteijn & David Marques-Ibanez, 2013. "Competition And Bank Risk: The Role Of Securitization And Bank Capital," Working Papers 13005, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
  13. Sumit Agarwal & Itzhak Ben-David & Vincent Yao, 2015. "Collateral Valuation and Borrower Financial Constraints: Evidence from the Residential Real Estate Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(9), pages 2220-2240, September.
  14. Abbassi, Puriya & Schmidt, Michael, 2018. "A comprehensive view on risk reporting: Evidence from supervisory data," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 74-85.
  15. Markus Behn & Rainer Haselmann & Vikrant Vig, 2022. "The Limits of Model‐Based Regulation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(3), pages 1635-1684, June.
  16. Ho, Po-Hsin & Huang, Chia-Wei & Lin, Chih-Yung & Yen, Ju-Fang, 2016. "CEO overconfidence and financial crisis: Evidence from bank lending and leverage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 194-209.
  17. Matthew J. Botsch, 2022. "Public and Private Benefits of Information in Markets for Securitized Assets," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 319-365, June.
  18. Eufinger, Christian & Gill, Andrej, 2016. "Incentive-based capital requirements," SAFE Working Paper Series 9 [rev.], Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2016.
  19. Wagner, Wolf & Bongaerts, Dion & Mazzola, Francesco, 2021. "Fire Sale Risk and Credit," CEPR Discussion Papers 15798, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Janis Skrastins & Vikrant Vig, 2019. "How Organizational Hierarchy Affects Information Production," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(2), pages 564-604.
  21. Ferri, Giovanni & Murro, Pierluigi & Peruzzi, Valentina & Rotondi, Zeno, 2019. "Bank lending technologies and credit availability in Europe: What can we learn from the crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 128-148.
  22. Gene Amromin & Jennifer Huang & Clemens Sialm & Edward Zhong, 2018. "Complex Mortgages [Why don’t lenders renegotiate more home mortgages? Redefaults, self-cures, and securitization]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(6), pages 1975-2007.
  23. Xudong An & Lawrence R. Cordell, 2020. "Mortgage Loss Severities: What Keeps Them So High?," Working Papers 20-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  24. Eichholtz, Piet & Ongena, Steven & Simeth, Nagihan & Yönder, Erkan, 2023. "Banks, non-banks, and the incorporation of local information in CMBS loan pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  25. Buchak, Greg & Matvos, Gregor & Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit, 2018. "Fintech, regulatory arbitrage, and the rise of shadow banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 453-483.
  26. Simon Cornée & Panu Kalmi & Ariane Szafarz, 2016. "Selectivity and Transparency in Social Banking: Evidence from Europe," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(2), pages 494-502, April.
  27. Floros, Ioannis & White, Joshua T., 2016. "Qualified residential mortgages and default risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 86-104.
  28. Marco Migueis, 2017. "Forward-looking and Incentive-compatible Operational Risk Capital Framework," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-087, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  29. Dan Luo & Dragon Yongjun Tang & Sarah Qian Wang, 2018. "Model specification and collateralized debt obligation (mis)pricing," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(11), pages 1284-1312, November.
  30. Luojia Hu & Xing Huang & Andrei Simonov, 2020. "Credit Score Doctors," Working Paper Series WP-2020-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  31. Filippo Curti & Marco Migueis, 2023. "The Information Value of Past Losses in Operational Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-003, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  32. Botsch, Matthew & Vanasco, Victoria, 2019. "Learning by lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-14.
  33. Christian Eufinger & Andrej Gill, 2017. "Incentive-Based Capital Requirements," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(12), pages 4101-4113, December.
  34. Griffin, John M. & Kruger, Samuel & Maturana, Gonzalo, 2021. "What drove the 2003–2006 house price boom and subsequent collapse? Disentangling competing explanations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1007-1035.
  35. José María Liberti, 2018. "Initiative, Incentives, and Soft Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(8), pages 3714-3734, August.
  36. Sruthi Davuluri & René García Franceschini & Christopher R. Knittel & Chikara Onda & Kelly Roache, 2019. "Machine Learning for Solar Accessibility: Implications for Low-Income Solar Expansion and Profitability," NBER Working Papers 26178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit, 2021. "Debt relief and slow recovery: A decade after Lehman," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1036-1059.
  38. Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2018. "Mortgage Market Design: Lessons from the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(1 (Spring), pages 429-513.
  39. Lee, Yongwoong & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2021. "Systematic credit risk in securitised mortgage portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
  40. Angela Gallo & Min Park, 2023. "CLO (Collateralized Loan Obligation) Market and Corporate Lending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(5), pages 1077-1118, August.
  41. Andreas Fuster & David Lucca & James Vickery, 2023. "Mortgage-backed securities," Chapters, in: Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright (ed.), Research Handbook of Financial Markets, chapter 15, pages 331-357, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  42. Raymond Fisman & Daniel Paravisini & Vikrant Vig, 2017. "Cultural Proximity and Loan Outcomes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(2), pages 457-492, February.
  43. Xudong An & Larry Cordell, 2021. "Mortgage loss severities: What keeps them so high?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(3), pages 809-842, September.
  44. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Sanket Korgaonkar, 2019. "Partial Deregulation and Competition: Effects on Risky Mortgage Origination," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(10), pages 4676-4711, October.
  45. Hagendorff, Jens & Nguyen, Duc Duy & Sila, Vathunyoo, 2022. "Does marriage equality promote credit access? Evidence from same-sex marriage laws," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  46. Clark, Brian & Ebrahim, Alireza, 2022. "Risk shifting and regulatory arbitrage: Evidence from operational risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  47. Samuel Kruger & Gonzalo Maturana, 2021. "Collateral Misreporting in the Residential Mortgage-Backed Security Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(5), pages 2729-2750, May.
  48. Carlos Serrano-Cinca & Begoña Gutiérrez-Nieto & Luz López-Palacios, 2015. "Determinants of Default in P2P Lending," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(10), pages 1-22, October.
  49. Do, Hung Xuan & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2018. "Predicting loss severities for residential mortgage loans: A three-step selection approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(1), pages 246-259.
  50. Hartarska, Valentina M. & Zhang, Jingfang & Nadolnyak, Denis A., 2023. "Scope Economies from Rural and Urban Microfinance Services," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335439, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  51. Jean-Edouard Colliard, 2019. "Strategic Selection of Risk Models and Bank Capital Regulation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 2591-2606, June.
  52. Bin Wei & Feng Zhao, 2022. "Racial Disparities in Mortgage Lending: New Evidence Based on Processing Time," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2022-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  53. Galina Hale & John Krainer & Erin McCarthy, 2020. "Aggregation Level in Stress-Testing Models," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(4), pages 1-46, September.
  54. Schweikert, Jochen & Höchstötter, Markus, 2018. "Epidemiological spreading of mortgage default," Working Paper Series in Economics 112, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
  55. Gianmarco Bet & Francesco Dainelli & Eugenio Fabrizi, 2023. "The financial health of a company and the risk of its default: Back to the future," Papers 2302.10140, arXiv.org.
  56. José García-Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2019. "Gender and Credit Risk: A View From the Loan Officer’s Desk," Working Papers 1076, Barcelona School of Economics.
  57. Agarwal, Sumit & Ben-David, Itzhak, 2018. "Loan prospecting and the loss of soft information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(3), pages 608-628.
  58. Deku, Solomon Y. & Kara, Alper & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2019. "Do reputable issuers provide better-quality securitizations?," Working Paper Series 2236, European Central Bank.
  59. Demyanyk, Yuliya & Loutskina, Elena, 2016. "Mortgage companies and regulatory arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 328-351.
  60. Olivier Darmouni & Andrew Sutherland, 2021. "Learning about Competitors: Evidence from SME Lending [Monthly payment targeting and the demand for maturity]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(5), pages 2275-2317.
  61. Andréas Heinen & James B. Kau & Donald C. Keenan & Mi Lim Kim, 2021. "Spatial Dependence in Subprime Mortgage Defaults," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 1-24, January.
  62. Elizabeth C. Klee & Chaehee Shin, 2020. "Post-crisis Signals in Securitization: Evidence from Auto ABS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-042, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  63. Tim Zhang, 2022. "Uniform Mortgage Regulation and Distortion in Capital Allocation [Loan originations and defaults in the mortgage crisis: the role of the middle class]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(4), pages 1011-1050.
  64. Benetton, Matteo & Eckley, Peter & Garbarino, Nicola & Kirwin, Liam & Latsi, Georgia, 2021. "Capital requirements and mortgage pricing: Evidence from Basel II," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
  65. José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2019. "Gender and credit risk: a view from the loan officer's desk," Economics Working Papers 1644, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  66. Hung Xuan Do & Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule, 2020. "Liquidity Constraints, Home Equity and Residential Mortgage Losses," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 208-246, August.
  67. Lei Shi & Neil Allan & John Evans & Yin Yun, 2018. "Significance of Controllable and Uncontrollable Drivers in Credit Defaults," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 37(1), pages 30-41, March.
  68. Tzioumis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Mortgage (mis)pricing: The case of co-borrowers," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 79-93.
  69. Andini, Monica & Boldrini, Michela & Ciani, Emanuele & de Blasio, Guido & D'Ignazio, Alessio & Paladini, Andrea, 2022. "Machine learning in the service of policy targeting: The case of public credit guarantees," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 434-475.
  70. Yaseen Ghulam & Kamini Dhruva & Sana Naseem & Sophie Hill, 2018. "The Interaction of Borrower and Loan Characteristics in Predicting Risks of Subprime Automobile Loans," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-21, September.
  71. Claudine Gartenberg & Lamar Pierce, 2017. "Subprime governance: Agency costs in vertically integrated banks and the 2008 mortgage crisis," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 300-321, February.
  72. Leitner, Yaron & Yilmaz, Bilge, 2019. "Regulating a model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(2), pages 251-268.
  73. Behn, Markus & Couaillier, Cyril, 2023. "Same same but different: credit risk provisioning under IFRS 9," Working Paper Series 2841, European Central Bank.
  74. Henrik Andersen & Ragnar E Juelsrud & Carola Müller, 2024. "Risk-based pricing in competitive lending markets," BIS Working Papers 1169, Bank for International Settlements.
  75. Hibbeln, Martin & Norden, Lars & Usselmann, Piet & Gürtler, Marc, 2020. "Informational synergies in consumer credit," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
  76. Sumit Agarwal & Yongheng Deng & Jia He & Yonglin Wang & Qi Zhang, 2023. "Lenders’ pricing strategy: Do neighborhood risks matter?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1011-1047, July.
  77. Valentina Hartarska & Jingfang Zhang & Denis A. Nadolnyak, 2023. "Scope economies from rural and urban microfinance services," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 89(4), pages 1138-1167, April.
  78. Altunbas, Yener & Marques-Ibanez, David & van Leuvensteijn, Michiel & Zhao, Tianshu, 2022. "Market power and bank systemic risk: Role of securitization and bank capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
  79. Anjan V. Thakor, 2015. "The Financial Crisis of 2007–2009: Why Did It Happen and What Did We Learn?," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 155-205.
  80. Sutherland, Andrew G., 2020. "Technology is changing lending: Implications for research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
  81. Laura Blattner & Scott Nelson, 2021. "How Costly is Noise? Data and Disparities in Consumer Credit," Papers 2105.07554, arXiv.org.
  82. De Moor, Lieven & Luitel, Prabesh & Sercu, Piet & Vanpée, Rosanne, 2018. "Subjectivity in sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 366-392.
  83. Yang, Ling, 2022. "An information quality-based explanation for loan loss allowance inadequacy during the 2008 financial crisis," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1).
  84. Tetyana Balyuk, 2023. "FinTech Lending and Bank Credit Access for Consumers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 555-575, January.
  85. Lee, Yongwoong & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2016. "Accuracy of mortgage portfolio risk forecasts during financial crises," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 440-456.
  86. Charles B. Perkins & J. Christina Wang, 2019. "How Magic a Bullet Is Machine Learning for Credit Analysis? An Exploration with FinTech Lending Data," Working Papers 19-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  87. Marco Bardoscia & Daniele d'Arienzo & Matteo Marsili & Valerio Volpati, 2019. "Lost in Diversification," Papers 1901.09795, arXiv.org.
  88. Simon Cornée, 2012. "The Relevance of Soft Information for Predicting Small Business Credit Default: Evidence from a Social Bank," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 201226, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS, revised Sep 2015.
  89. Kollenda, Philipp, 2022. "Financial returns or social impact? What motivates impact investors’ lending to firms in low-income countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  90. Sumit Agarwal & Swee Hoon Ang & Yongheng Deng & Yonglin Wang, 2021. "Mortgage Brokers and the Effectiveness of Regulatory Oversights," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(8), pages 5278-5300, August.
  91. Allen N. Berger & Onesime Epouhe & Raluca Roman, 2021. "A Tale of Two Bailouts: Effects of TARP and PPP on Subprime Consumer Debt," Working Papers 21-32, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  92. Xudong An & Sadok El Ghoul & Omrane Guedhami & Ross Levine & Raluca Roman, 2023. "Social Capital and Mortgages," Working Papers 23-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  93. Sumit Agarwal & Brent W. Ambrose & Vincent W. Yao, 2020. "Lender Steering in Residential Mortgage Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(2), pages 446-475, June.
  94. Brendan Daley & Brett Green & Victoria Vanasco, 2020. "Securitization, Ratings, and Credit Supply," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(2), pages 1037-1082, April.
  95. José María Liberti & Mitchell A. Petersen, 2018. "Information: Hard and Soft," NBER Working Papers 25075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  96. Chao Ma & Hao Zhang & Hongbiao Zhao, 2023. "Securitization of assets with payment delay risk: A financial innovation in the real estate market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 480-515, April.
  97. Thorsten Beck & Vasso Ioannidou & Larissa Schäfer, 2018. "Foreigners vs. Natives: Bank Lending Technologies and Loan Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(8), pages 3792-3820, August.
  98. Thi Mai Luong & Harald Scheule & Nitya Wanzare, 2023. "Impact of mortgage soft information in loan pricing on default prediction using machine learning," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 158-186, March.
  99. Li, Yongjia & Tahsin, Salman, 2021. "Home price appreciation and residential lending standards," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
  100. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:49:y:2019:i:2018-01:p:429-513 is not listed on IDEAS
  101. Adam J. Levitin & Desen Lin & Susan M. Wachter, 2020. "Mortgage Risk Premiums during the Housing Bubble," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 421-468, May.
  102. Allen N. Berger & Christa H. S. Bouwman & Lars Norden & Raluca A. Roman & Gregory F. Udell & Teng Wang, 2021. "Piercing Through Opacity: Relationships and Credit Card Lending to Consumers and Small Businesses During Normal Times and the COVID-19 Crisis," Working Papers 21-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  103. Céline Baud & Nathalie Lallemand-Stempak, 2024. "Quantitative technologies and reflexivity: The role of tools and their layouts in the case of credit risk management," Post-Print hal-04419872, HAL.
  104. Reynal-Querol, Marta & García-Montalvo, José, 2020. "Gender And Credit Risk: A View From The Loan Officer'S Desk," CEPR Discussion Papers 14500, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  105. Xudong An & Lawrence R. Cordell, 2017. "Regime Shift And The Post-Crisis World Of Mortgage Loss Severities," Working Papers 17-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  106. Guang Hu & Yue Tang, 2023. "GERPM: A Geographically Weighted Stacking Ensemble Learning-Based Urban Residential Rents Prediction Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-36, July.
  107. Tahsin, Salman, 2022. "Home price growth and minority access to mortgage credit," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
  108. Moon, Terry & Schoenherr, David, 2022. "The rise of a network: Spillover of political patronage and cronyism to the private sector," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 970-1005.
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