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The Information Value of Past Losses in Operational Risk

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Abstract

Operational risk is a substantial source of risk for US banks. Improving the performance of operational risk models allows banks’ management to make more informed risk decisions by better matching economic capital and risk appetite, and allows regulators to enhance their understanding of banks’ operational risk. We show that past operational losses are informative of future losses, even after controlling for a wide range of financial characteristics. We propose that the information provided by past losses results from them capturing hard to quantify factors such as the quality of operational risk controls, the risk culture, and the risk appetite of the bank.

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  • Filippo Curti & Marco Migueis, 2023. "The Information Value of Past Losses in Operational Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-003, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2023-03
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2023.003
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking; Operational risk; Risk management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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