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A speculative bubble in commodity futures prices? Cross‐sectional evidence

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Cited by:

  1. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Dramane Coulibaly, 2011. "Index trading and agricultural commodity prices: A panel Granger causality analysis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 126-127, pages 51-71.
  2. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2012. "Financialization and Structural Change in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 371-396, August.
  3. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
  4. Ott, Herve, 2012. "Which factors drive which volatility in the grain sector?," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122486, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  5. Derek Headey & Sangeetha Malaiyandi & Shenggen Fan, 2010. "Navigating the perfect storm: reflections on the food, energy, and financial crises," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 217-228, November.
  6. Pratap Kumar Jena, 2016. "Financialisation of Commodity Market in India : A Closer Look at the Evidence," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 147-168, June.
  7. Robert Czudaj & Joscha Beckmann, 2012. "Spot and futures commodity markets and the unbiasedness hypothesis - evidence from a novel panel unit root test," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1695-1707.
  8. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425, June.
  9. Bernhard Troester, 2012. "The determinants of the recent food price surges – A basic supply and demand model," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1206, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.
  10. Aleksandra Hałka & Jacek Kotłowski, 2017. "Global or Domestic? Which Shocks Drive Inflation in European Small Open Economies?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(8), pages 1812-1835, August.
  11. Ashutosh Vashishtha, 2020. "Cobweb price dynamics under the presence of agricultural futures market: theoretical analysis," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(2), pages 131-162, June.
  12. Chiarucci, Riccardo & Loffredo, Maria I. & Ruzzenenti, Franco, 2017. "Evidences for a structural change in the oil market before a financial crisis: The flat horizon effect," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 912-921.
  13. Varadi, Vijay Kumar, 2012. "An evidence of speculation in Indian commodity markets," MPRA Paper 38337, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Hervé Ott, 2014. "Extent and possible causes of intrayear agricultural commodity price volatility," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(2), pages 225-252, March.
  15. Areal, Francisco José & Balcombe, Kevin & Rapsomanikis, George, 2016. "Testing for bubbles in agriculture commodity markets," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 16(01), June.
  16. Mayer, Herbert & Rathgeber, Andreas & Wanner, Markus, 2017. "Financialization of metal markets: Does futures trading influence spot prices and volatility?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 300-316.
  17. Brunetti, Celso & Büyükşahin, Bahattin & Harris, Jeffrey H., 2016. "Speculators, Prices, and Market Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(5), pages 1545-1574, October.
  18. Tokic, Damir, 2012. "Speculation and the 2008 oil bubble: The DCOT Report analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 541-550.
  19. Wen, Jun & Khalid, Samia & Mahmood, Hamid & Zakaria, Muhammad, 2021. "Symmetric and asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on food prices in China: A new evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  20. Jennifer Clapp, 2017. "Responsibility to the rescue? Governing private financial investment in global agriculture," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 34(1), pages 223-235, March.
  21. Staritz, Cornelia, 2012. "Financial markets and the commodity price boom: Causes and implications for developing countries," Working Papers 30, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE).
  22. Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela & Baldi, Lucia, 2014. "Internet, noise trading and commodity futures prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 82-89.
  23. Westgaard, Sjur & Frydenberg, Stein & Mohanty, Sunil K., 2022. "Fourteen large commodity trading disasters: What happened and what can we learn?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
  24. Xiaoliang Liu & Guenther Filler & Martin Odening, 2013. "Testing for speculative bubbles in agricultural commodity prices: a regime switching approach," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 73(1), pages 179-200, May.
  25. Libo Yin & Jing Nie & Liyan Han, 2021. "Intermediary capital risk and commodity futures volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 577-640, May.
  26. Yin, Libo & Zhou, Yimin, 2016. "What drives long-term oil market volatility? Fundamentals versus speculation," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 10, pages 1-26.
  27. Troester, Bernhard & Staritz, Cornelia, 2013. "Fundamentals or financialisation of commodity markets: What determines recent wheat prices?," Working Papers 43, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE).
  28. Arora, Vipin & Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro & Shi, Shuping, 2013. "The divergence between core and headline inflation: Implications for consumers’ inflation expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 497-504.
  29. Gutierrez, L. & Piras, F., 2013. "A Global Wheat Market Model (GLOWMM) for the Analysis of Wheat Export Prices," 2013 Second Congress, June 6-7, 2013, Parma, Italy 149760, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
  30. Devmali Perera & Jędrzej Białkowski & Martin T. Bohl, 2022. "Is the Tracking Error Time-Varying? Evidence from Agricultural ETCs," Working Papers in Economics 22/13, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  31. Massimo PERI & Daniela VANDONE & Lucia BALDI, 2012. "Internet, noise trading and commodity prices," Departmental Working Papers 2012-07, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
  32. Fatima, Hira & Ahmed, Mumtaz, 2019. "Testing for Exuberance Behavior in Agricultural Commodities of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 95304, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  33. Quanbiao Shang & Mindy Mallory & Philip Garcia, 2018. "The components of the bid†ask spread: Evidence from the corn futures market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(3), pages 381-393, May.
  34. Long, Shaobo & Li, Jieyu & Luo, Tianyuan, 2023. "The asymmetric impact of global economic policy uncertainty on international grain prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
  35. Bosch, David & Smimou, K., 2022. "Traders’ motivation and hedging pressure in commodity futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
  36. Andrew Powell, 2012. "The World of Forking Paths: Latin America and the Caribbean Facing Global Economic Risks," Research Department Publications 4766, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  37. Girardi, Daniele, 2012. "Do financial investors affect the price of wheat?," MPRA Paper 40285, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  38. Baldi, Lucia & Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela, 2011. "Price Discovery in Agricultural Commodities: The Shifting Relationship Between Spot and Future Prices," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114237, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  39. Qadan, Mahmoud & Idilbi-Bayaa, Yasmeen, 2020. "Risk appetite and oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  40. Holst, Carsten, 2010. "How predictable are prices of agricultural commodities? The possibilities and constraints of forecasting wheat prices," IAMO Forum 2010: Institutions in Transition – Challenges for New Modes of Governance 52717, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).
  41. Scott H. Irwin & Dwight R. Sanders, 2011. "Index Funds, Financialization, and Commodity Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31.
  42. Czudaj Robert L., 2020. "The role of uncertainty on agricultural futures markets momentum trading and volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(3), pages 1-39, June.
  43. Gnutzmann, Hinnerk & Spiewanowski, Piotr, 2016. "Did the Fertilizer Cartel Cause the Food Crisis?," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145777, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  44. Ana I. Sanjuán-López & Philip J. Dawson, 2017. "Volatility Effects of Index Trading and Spillovers on US Agricultural Futures Markets: A Multivariate GARCH Approach," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 822-838, September.
  45. Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin, 2017. "Bubbles, Froth and Facts: Another Look at the Masters Hypothesis in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 345-365, June.
  46. Girardi, Daniele, 2011. "Do financial investors affect commodity prices? The case of Hard Red Winter Wheat," MPRA Paper 35670, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  47. Ulusoy, Veysel & Onbirler, Özgür Ünal, 2017. "Marginal speculation and hedging in commodity markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 269-282.
  48. Huchet, Nicolas & Fam, Papa Gueye, 2016. "The role of speculation in international futures markets on commodity prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 49-65.
  49. Haase, Marco & Huss, Matthias, 2018. "Guilty speculators? Range-based conditional volatility in a cross-section of wheat futures," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 29-46.
  50. Libo Yin & Qingyuan Yang & Zhi Su, 2017. "Predictability of structural co-movement in commodity prices: the role of technical indicators," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 795-812, May.
  51. Stephanie-Carolin Grosche, 2014. "What Does Granger Causality Prove? A Critical Examination of the Interpretation of Granger Causality Results on Price Effects of Index Trading in Agricultural Commodity Markets," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 279-302, June.
  52. Oglend, Atle & Selland Kleppe, Tore, 2016. "How regular are directional movements in commodity and asset prices? A Wald test," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 290-306.
  53. Xiaojie Xu, 2020. "Corn Cash Price Forecasting," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(4), pages 1297-1320, August.
  54. Modena, Matteo, 2011. "Agricultural commodities and financial markets," MPRA Paper 36416, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Sep 2011.
  55. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Volatility transmission in agricultural futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 541-546.
  56. Giray GOZGOR & Baris KABLAMACI, 2014. "The linkage between oil and agricultural commodity prices in the light of the perceived global risk," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 60(7), pages 332-342.
  57. Tolhurst, Tor N., 2018. "A Model-Free Bubble Detection Method: Application to the World Market for Superstar Wines," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274387, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  58. David Matesanz & Benno Torgler & Germán Dabat & Guillermo J. Ortega, 2014. "Co-movements in commodity prices: a note based on network analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(S1), pages 13-21, November.
  59. Zhang, Yue-Jun, 2013. "Speculative trading and WTI crude oil futures price movement: An empirical analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 394-402.
  60. Headey, Derek, 2011. "Rethinking the global food crisis: The role of trade shocks," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 136-146, April.
  61. Benoît Guilleminot & Jean-Jacques Ohana & Steve Ohana, 2014. "The interaction of speculators and index investors in agricultural derivatives markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(6), pages 767-792, November.
  62. Go, You-How & Lau, Wee-Yeap, 2017. "Investor demand, market efficiency and spot-futures relation: Further evidence from crude palm oil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 135-146.
  63. Perera, Devmali & Białkowski, Jędrzej & Bohl, Martin T., 2022. "Is the tracking error time-varying? Evidence from agricultural ETCs," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  64. Terrance Grieb & Nam Hoang, 2019. "The Effects of Hedging and Speculation on Cash-Futures Basis: Results from U.S. Wheat Markets," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 17, pages 1-15, August.
  65. Aliaga Lordemann, Javier & Mora-García, Claudio & Mulder, Nanno, 2021. "Speculation and price volatility in the coffee market," Documentos de Proyectos 46923, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  66. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2012. "Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 256-269.
  67. Bohl Martin T., 2016. "Treiben Indexfonds Agrarrohstoffpreise? Nein!," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 155-171, July.
  68. Zhou, Liyun & Huang, Jialiang, 2020. "Contagion of future-level sentiment in Chinese Agricultural Futures Markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
  69. Xiao-Qing WANG & Chi-Wei SU & Ran TAO & Oana-Ramona LOBONŢ, 2018. "When will food price bubbles burst? A review," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 64(12), pages 566-573.
  70. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wang, Jing, 2015. "Exploring the WTI crude oil price bubble process using the Markov regime switching model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 421(C), pages 377-387.
  71. Gilbert, Christopher L., 2012. "Speculative impacts on grains price volatility," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122540, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
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