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Have Commodity Index Funds Increased Price Linkages between Commodities?

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  • Dorfman, Jeffrey H.
  • Karali, Berna

Abstract

To shed more light on the ongoing debate on the role of commodity index funds on recent commodity price spikes, we investigate the linkages between commodity futures prices surrounding the time period of increased index fund activity. We take a Bayesian approach to test stationarity and cointegration of commodity pairs and trios. We find that simple correlation coefficients between futures prices and the probability of nonstationarity of the series have increased over time as the size of index fund trading became larger. However, our cointegration test results show no evidence for an increase in cointegration.

Suggested Citation

  • Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & Karali, Berna, 2012. "Have Commodity Index Funds Increased Price Linkages between Commodities?," 2012 Conference, April 16-17, 2012, St. Louis, Missouri 285783, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:n13412:285783
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.285783
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dorfman, Jeffrey H., 1995. "A numerical bayesian test for cointegration of AR processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 289-324.
    2. Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin, 2010. "A speculative bubble in commodity futures prices? Cross‐sectional evidence," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(1), pages 25-32, January.
    3. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425, June.
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