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Local Projections vs. VARs: Lessons From Thousands of DGPs

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  1. Local Projections vs. VARs
    by Francis Diebold in No Hesitations on 2021-04-05 13:24:00

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Cited by:

  1. Endong Wang, 2024. "Local projections identify the same policy counterfactuals as empirical and structural models," Papers 2409.09577, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
  2. Boto-García, David & Albert, Juan Francisco & Gómez-Fernández, Nerea, 2024. "Carbon price shocks and tourism demand," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
  3. Marco Gallegati & William Ginn & Jamel Saadaoui & Solomos Solomou & Kun Tian, 2025. "How does ENSO impact U.S. Oil Spot and Future Prices?," Working Papers 2025.20, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
  4. Masahiro Tanaka, 2025. "Quasi-Bayesian Local Projections: Simultaneous Inference and Extension to the Instrumental Variable Method," Papers 2503.20249, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
  5. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 87-155.
  6. Leonardo N. Ferreira & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2025. "Bayesian Local Projections," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 107(5), pages 1424-1438, September.
  7. Deb, Pragyan & Furceri, Davide & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Tawk, Nour, 2023. "Creative destruction during crises: An opportunity for a cleaner energy mix," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
  8. Gabriel Züllig & Valentin Grob, 2024. "Corporate leverage and the effects of monetary policy on investment: a reconciliation of micro and macro elasticities," Working Papers 2024-08, Swiss National Bank.
  9. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Le Xu & Francesco Zanetti, 2025. "Charting the Uncharted: The (Un)Intended Consequences of Oil Sanctions and Dark Shipping," CESifo Working Paper Series 11684, CESifo.
  10. Aumond, Romain & Di Tommaso, Valerio & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2022. "A narrative database of labour market reforms in euro area economies," Working Paper Series 2657, European Central Bank.
  11. Oriol González-Casasús & Frank Schorfheide, 2025. "Misspecification-Robust Shrinkage and Selection for VAR Forecasts and IRFs," NBER Working Papers 33474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Sheng, Xin & Kim, Won Joong & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The impacts of oil price volatility on financial stress: Is the COVID-19 period different?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 520-532.
  13. Bruns, Martin & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2022. "Comparison of local projection estimators for proxy vector autoregressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  14. Damiano Di Francesco & Omar Pietro Carnevale, 2025. "Are Hysteresis Effects Nonlinear?," LEM Papers Series 2025/32, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  15. Ignace De Vos & Gerdie Everaert, 2025. "GLS Estimation of Local Projections: Trading Robustness for Efficiency," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 24/1095, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  16. Ho, Paul & Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian, 2024. "Averaging impulse responses using prediction pools," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  17. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Beltrán, Paula & Grinberg, Federico & Mancini-Griffoli, Tommaso, 2023. "The macro-financial effects of international bank lending on emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
  18. Simon Freyaldenhoven & Christian Hansen, 2025. "(Visualizing) Plausible Treatment Effect Paths," Working Papers 25-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  19. Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani, 2025. "The international transmission of Chinese monetary policy and the commodity channel," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1510, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  20. Hyejin Yang & Jin Lee, 2025. "Response of tail risks of Euro-dollar exchange rate to monetary policy shocks in the US and the Euro area using penalized local projections," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 5(6), pages 1-21, June.
  21. Mark W. Watson, 2022. "Comment on "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification" 2," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2022, volume 37, pages 161-166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Juan R. Hernández & Mateo Hoyos & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2024. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets under Global Uncertainty," Working Papers DTE 634, CIDE, División de Economía.
  23. Bodenstein, Martin & Scaramucci, Mikaël, 2025. "On the GDP effects of severe physical hazards," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
  24. Nguyen, Dinh Trung, 2025. "Geopolitical risks and crypto exchange rate premium: Implications for capital flight," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PE).
  25. François-Éric Racicota & David Tessierc, 2023. "On the relationship between Jorda?s IRF local projection and Dufour et al.?s robust (p,h)-autoregression multihorizon causality: a note," Working Papers 2023-001, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  26. Andrejs Zlobins, 2025. "Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area: Is this Time Different? Chapter I: Lags and Strength," Working Papers 2025/01, Latvijas Banka.
  27. José Luis Montiel Olea & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & Eric Qian & Christian K. Wolf, 2025. "Local Projections or VARs? A Primer for Macroeconomists," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2025, volume 40, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Lof, Matthijs & Nyberg, Henri, 2024. "Discount rates and cash flows: A local projection approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
  29. Bjarni G. Einarsson, 2024. "Online Monitoring of Policy Optimality," Economics wp95, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  30. Benatti, Nicola & Groiss, Martin & Kelly, Petra & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma, 2024. "Environmental regulation and productivity growth in the euro area: Testing the porter hypothesis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  31. Robert Kirkby & Huong Ngoc Vu, 2024. "Impacts of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inflation and Output in New Zealand," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 100(329), pages 160-187, June.
  32. Dinh Trung Nguyen, 2025. "Structural reforms and global value chains: a dynamic analysis of OECD countries based on local projections," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1-31, July.
  33. De Graeve, Ferre & Westermark, Andreas, 2025. "Long-lag VARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
  34. Li, Dake & Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel & Wolf, Christian K., 2024. "Local projections vs. VARs: Lessons from thousands of DGPs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
  35. NAKAJIMA, Jouchi, 2025. "Time-varying Local Projections with Stochastic Volatility," Discussion Paper Series 761, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  36. Salamaliki, Paraskevi K., 2024. "Globalization and fiscal policy after financial crises," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  37. Priya, Pragati & Sharma, Chandan, 2024. "On transmission channels of energy prices and monetary policy shocks to household consumption: Evidence from India," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  38. Lewis, Daniel & Mertens, Karel, 2022. "Dynamic Identification Using System Projections and Instrumental Variables," CEPR Discussion Papers 17153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  39. Daniel J. Lewis & Karel Mertens, 2026. "Weak Instrument Bias in Impulse Response Estimators," Working Papers 2601, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  40. Andrea Recine & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2025. "Macroeconomic Effects of Government Defense and Non-Defense R&D," Working Papers in Public Economics 262, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Rome.
  41. Castro Nofal, Bastian & Díaz, Juan D. & Gutiérrez Cubillos, Pablo & Hansen, Erwin, 2024. "Stock returns and tax progressivity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
  42. Philipp Roderweis & Jamel Saadaoui & Francisco Serranito, 2023. "Is Quantitative Easing Productive? The Role of Bank Lending in the Monetary Transmission Process," Working Papers hal-04159825, HAL.
  43. repec:aep:anales:4836 is not listed on IDEAS
  44. Le, Anh H. & Park, Donghyun & Beirne, John & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2025. "How does disaster risk impact fiscal sustainability and inequality?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  45. Tomás Opazo, 2023. "The Heterogeneous Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence for US Households," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 992, Central Bank of Chile.
  46. Brianti, Marco & Cormun, Vito, 2024. "Expectation-driven boom-bust cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  47. Kaelo Ntwaepelo & Grivas Chiyaba, 2022. "Financial Stability Surveillance Tools: Evaluating the Performance of Stress Indices," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2022-06, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
  48. Jo, Taewoong & Kang, Jihye & Hur, Joonyoung, 2025. "What do we know about estimating government spending multipliers?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  49. Paul Carrillo-Maldonado & Javier Díaz-Cassou & Miguel Flores, 2023. "What are the main variables that influence the dynamics of Ecuador’s sovereign risk?," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 2158009-215, December.
  50. Broadbent, Elijah & Ennis, Huberto M. & Pike, Tyler J. & Sapriza, Horacio, 2026. "Bank lending standards and the U.S. economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
  51. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," NBER Working Papers 32822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  52. Jenni, Matthew & Schadner, Wolfgang & Angerer, Martin, 2025. "Hard forks, hard questions: Unraveling the microstructure effects on Bitcoin’s return, volume, and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
  53. Rahaman, Akeem & Majid, Michelle, 2025. "Storms and sustainability: Assessing the impact of natural disasters on debt sustainability in the Caribbean," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 579-591.
  54. Rabia Rafique & Asad Nisar & Syed Sadaqat Ali Shah, 2024. "Testing the effects of fiscal policy shocks on output growth in recession and expansion: empirical evidence from developing countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1-26, June.
  55. Mario Di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Emanuel Gasteiger & Giovanni Melina, 2024. "The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand‐ and Supply‐Driven Recessions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(6), pages 1342-1372, December.
  56. Geert Mesters & Régis Barnichon, 2023. "Evaluating Policy Institutions -150 Years of US Monetary Policy-," Working Papers 1410, Barcelona School of Economics.
  57. Cloyne, James & Martinez, Joseba & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2022. "The Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes in a World of Ideas," CEPR Discussion Papers 17455, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  58. Elizabeth Kopits & Daniel Kraynak & Bryan Parthum & Lisa Rennels & David Smith & Elizabeth Spink & Joseph Perla & Nshan Burns, 2025. "Economic Impacts of Climate Change in the United States: Integrating and Harmonizing Evidence from Recent Studies," Papers 2509.00212, arXiv.org.
  59. Niko Hauzenberger Massimiliano Marcellino Michael Pfarrhofer Anna Stelzer, 2026. "Direct Gaussian Process Predictive Regressions with Mixed Frequency Data," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 26265, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  60. Florian Huber & Christian Matthes & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2024. "General Seemingly Unrelated Local Projections," Papers 2410.17105, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2025.
  61. Bro de Comères, Quentin & Mugrabi, Farah & Lyons, Paul, 2025. "A Quick Stress Testing Methodology for Irish Banks," Research Technical Papers 17/RT/25, Central Bank of Ireland.
  62. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Karin Klieber, 2025. "Opening the Black Box of Local Projections," Papers 2505.12422, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
  63. Gulenkov, Ilya, 2025. "Fiscal multipliers, trend inflation, and endogenous price stickiness: Evidence from the U.S," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  64. repec:osf:socarx:v75aw_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
  65. Jacho, Domenica & Cruz, Zoe & Carrillo-Maldonado, Paul, 2024. "Effect of terms of trade on the Latin American Labor market," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
  66. Kopits, Elizabeth & Kraynak, Daniel & Parthum, Bryan & Rennels, Lisa & Smith, David & Spink, Elizabeth & Griffiths, Charles & Perla, Joseph & Burns, Nshan & Howerton, Michael, 2025. "Economic Damages from Climate Change to U.S. Populations: Integrating Evidence from Recent Studies," National Center for Environmental Economics-NCEE Working Papers 368258, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
  67. Ziwei Mei & Liugang Sheng & Zhentao Shi, 2023. "Nickell Bias in Panel Local Projection: Financial Crises Are Worse Than You Think," Papers 2302.13455, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
  68. Jan Lohmeyer & Franz Palm & Jean‐Pierre Urbain, 2024. "Consistency of averaged impulse response estimators in vector autoregressive models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(5), pages 691-713, September.
  69. Marie Alder & Nuno Coimbra & Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2025. "Corporate debt structure and heterogeneous monetary policy transmission," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Leveraging corporates' financial statements for policy insights, volume 65, Bank for International Settlements.
  70. Hernández, Juan R. & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel & Valencia, J. Eduardo, 2024. "Global supply chain inflationary pressures and monetary policy in Mexico," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  71. Yusuf Yildirim & Anirban Sanyal, 2023. "Financial Stress and Effect on Real Economy: Turkish Experience," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2023(1), pages 46-67.
  72. Mehdi El Herradi & Jakob Haan & Aurélien Leroy, 2023. "Inflation and the Income Share of the Rich: Evidence for 14 OECD Countries," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(1), pages 170-194, March.
  73. Milov{s} Ciganovi'c & Elena Scola Gagliardi & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2025. "Disentangling the Distributional Effects of Financial Shocks in the Euro Area," Papers 2510.11289, arXiv.org.
  74. Elias Hasler, 2025. "Assessing the Global Impact of EU Carbon Pricing: Economic and Climate Spillovers," Working Papers 2025-01, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
  75. Wu, Ran, 2025. "Forecasting the European Union allowance price tail risk with the integrated deep belief and mixture density networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 199(P2).
  76. Ziegenbein, Alexander, 2024. "When are tax multipliers large?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  77. Bechchani, Khalil, 2025. "Austerity reexamined: Uncovering the role of the shadow economy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1291-1317.
  78. Neville Francis & Peter Reinhard Hansen & Chen Tong, 2025. "Principled Identification of Structural Dynamic Models," Papers 2512.17005, arXiv.org.
  79. Christiane Baumeister, 2025. "Comment on "Local Projections or VARs? A Primer for Macroeconomists"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2025, volume 40, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  80. Syed M. Hussain & Lin Liu, 2024. "Macroeconomic effects of discretionary tax changes in Canada: Evidence from a new narrative measure of tax shocks," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(1), pages 78-107, February.
  81. Miguel Cabello, 2022. "Robust Estimation of the non-Gaussian Dimension in Structural Linear Models," Papers 2212.07263, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
  82. repec:aep:anales:4750 is not listed on IDEAS
  83. Shah, Syed Sadaqat Ali & Wu, Kai, 2025. "How effective are green spending multipliers? Eco-friendly vs non-eco-friendly spending in OECD economies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
  84. Philipp Roderweis & Jamel Saadaoui & Francisco Serranito, 2023. "The Unintended Consequences of ECB’s Asset Purchases. How Excess Reserves Shape Bank Lending," Working Papers of BETA 2023-34, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  85. Ferrara, Laurent & Metelli, Luca & Natoli, Filippo & Siena, Daniele, 2021. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
  86. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek, 2025. "Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  87. Alfred A. Haug & Tomasz Łyziak & Anna Sznajderska, 2022. "The Role of the Monetary Policy Stance for the Goverment Spending Multiplier in Poland ​," KAE Working Papers 2022-080, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
  88. Melas Konstantinos D. & Michail Nektarios A. & Louca Kyriaki G., 2025. "Trade Uncertainty, Economic Policy Uncertainty and Shipping Costs," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 26(1), pages 15-33.
  89. Nabil Daher, 2025. "Is growth at risk from natural disasters ? Evidence from quantile local projections," EconomiX Working Papers 2025-9, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  90. Lucas Ordóñez, 2025. "The Transmission of Supply Shocks to Inflation: the Case of Argentina (2004-2022)," Working Papers 351, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
  91. Atsushi Inoue & `Oscar Jord`a & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2023. "Inference for Local Projections," Papers 2306.03073, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
  92. Herbst, Edward P. & Johannsen, Benjamin K., 2024. "Bias in local projections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
  93. Castro Nofal, Bastian & Díaz, Juan D. & Gutiérrez Cubillos, Pablo & Hansen, Erwin, 2024. "On the robustness of the relationship between tax progressivity, growth, and inequality in the US," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
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