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European Booms and Busts over Six Centuries

Author

Listed:
  • Don Bredin

    (University College Dublin)

  • Stilianos Fountas

    (University of Macedonia)

  • Georgios Karras

    (University of Illinois at Chicago)

Abstract

We examine the impact of economic upturns and downturns on subsequent economic performance in Europe over six plus centuries. Instead of utilizing the conventional post-World War II framework, we employ a comprehensive panel of GDP data for England, Holland and Italy spanning more than 600 years. We find consistent evidence in favor of asymmetry. Downturns are followed by statistically significant higher growth rates, while upturns are followed by mildly lower growth rates which are often not statistically significant. Our finding of asymmetry suggests that business cycle properties are consistent with mechanisms similar to Friedman’s plucking hypothesis

Suggested Citation

  • Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas & Georgios Karras, 2026. "European Booms and Busts over Six Centuries," Discussion Paper Series 2026_04, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Apr 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2026_04
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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