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Irish GDP between the Famine and the First World War: Estimates Based on a Dynamic Factor Model

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  • Andersson, Fredrik N. G.

    (Department of Economics, Lund University)

  • Lennard, Jason

    (Department of Economic History, Lund University)

Abstract

A major issue in Irish economic history is the lack of national accounts before the interwar period. This paper constructs new annual estimates of real GDP between 1842 and 1913 based on a novel two-stage econometric approach. Our results show that while living standards approximately tripled in this period, development was uneven with contractions in economic activity not only during the Great Famine but also between the late 1890s and the First World War. As a proof of concept, we also apply our methodology to Swedish data. The resulting estimates closely match existing historical national accounts.

Suggested Citation

  • Andersson, Fredrik N. G. & Lennard, Jason, 2016. "Irish GDP between the Famine and the First World War: Estimates Based on a Dynamic Factor Model," Working Papers 2016:13, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 16 Jan 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2016_013
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kenny, Seán & Lennard, Jason & O'Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj, 2020. "An annual index of Irish industrial production, 1800-1921," Economic History Working Papers 107427, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    3. Luke Mcgrath & Stephen Hynes & John Mchale, 2022. "Reassessing Ireland’s economic development through the lens of sustainable development [Sustainability and the measurement of wealth]," European Review of Economic History, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 399-422.
    4. Seán Kenny & Jason Lennard & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2023. "An annual index of Irish industrial production, 1800–1913," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(1), pages 283-304, February.
    5. Adomas Klimantas & Aras Zirgulis, 2020. "A new estimate of Lithuanian GDP for 1937: How does interwar Lithuania compare?," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(2), pages 227-281, May.
    6. Jansson, Walter, 2018. "Stock markets, banks and economic growth in the UK, 1850–1913," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 263-296, December.
    7. Solomos Solomou & Ryland Thomas, 2019. "Feinstein Fulfilled: Updated Estimates of UK GDP 1841-1920," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Technical Reports ESCOE-TR-04, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    8. Hargaden, Enda Patrick, 2022. "Who donates to revolutionaries? Evidence from post-1916 Ireland," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    9. Jerven, Morten, 2019. "African Economic Growth 1900-50: Historical National Accounts for British Colonial Africa," African Economic History Working Paper 50/2019, African Economic History Network.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ireland; GDP; Famine; Historical national accounts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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