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The Climacteric in Late Victorian Britain and France: A Reappraisal of the Evidence

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  • Crafts, N F R
  • Leybourne, S J
  • Mills, Terence C

Abstract

The paper investigates the question of whether the trend rate of growth of GDP slowed down in Britain or France in the nineteenth century. We establish that real GDP belongs to the trend-stationary process class of time-series in each case rather than the difference-stationary process and using Kalman filter techniques, analyze trends in a model incorporating time-varying parameters without specifying breakpoints in advance. We find, contrary to the literature, that neither country experienced a climacteric. Our results suggest that economic historians have been prone to exaggerated views of variations in trend economic growth. Copyright 1989 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Crafts, N F R & Leybourne, S J & Mills, Terence C, 1989. "The Climacteric in Late Victorian Britain and France: A Reappraisal of the Evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 103-117, April-Jun.
    • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:4:y:1989:i:2:p:103-17
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    Cited by:

    1. Fredrik N G Andersson & Jason Lennard, 2019. "Irish GDP between the Famine and the First World War: estimates based on a dynamic factor model," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 23(1), pages 50-71.
    2. Chabot, Benjamin & Kurz, Christopher J., 2009. "That's Where the Money Was: Foreign Bias and English Investment Abroad, 1866-1907," Working Papers 64, Yale University, Department of Economics.
    3. Javier Mejía, 2015. "The Evolution of Economic History since 1950: From Cliometrics to Cliodynamics (La evolución de la historia económica desde 1950: de cliometría hasta cliodinámica)," Tiempo y Economía, Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, vol. 2(2), pages 79, December.
    4. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2019. "The Pre-1914 UK Productivity Slowdown: A Reappraisal," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 437, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    5. Crafts, N. F. R. & Leybourne, S. J. & Mills, T. C., 1988. "Economic Growth In Nineteeth Century Britain: Comparisons With Europe In The Context Of Gerschenkron'S Hypotheses," Economic Research Papers 268342, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    6. Chabot, Benjamin & Kurz, Christopher, 2009. "That's Where the Money Was: Foreign Bias and English Investment Abroad, 1866-1907," Center Discussion Papers 50950, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    7. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Clio And The Economist: Making Historians Count," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 755-774, December.
    8. Alvaro Montenegro, 2005. "Introducción al filtro Kalman," Documentos de Economía 2920, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    9. David, Paul A., 1989. "COMPUTER AND DYNAMO: The Modern Productivity Paradox in a Not-Too Distant Mirror," Economic Research Papers 268373, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    10. Nicholas Crafts, 2004. "Steam as a general purpose technology: A growth accounting perspective," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 338-351, April.
    11. Nicholas Crafts, 2021. "The Sources Of British Economic Growth Since The Industrial Revolution: Not The Same Old Story," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 697-709, July.
    12. Crafts, N.F.R. & Mills, T.C., 1990. "British Economic Fluctuations, 1851-1913: A Perspective Based On Growth Theory," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 362, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    13. Sarah Cochrane, 2009. "Explaining London's Dominance in International Financial Services, 1870-1913," Economics Series Working Papers 455, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    14. Mills, Terence C. & Crafts, Nicholas F. R., 2004. "Sectoral output trends and cycles in Victorian Britain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 217-232, March.

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