Monetary Policy, Asset Price Inflation and Consumer Price Inflation
The overall price level contains prices of everything purchased or purchasable (Fischer, 1911). The consumer price index only covers a small subset of all prices in the economy and since these prices are among the stickiest in the economy, this index may not fully capture the true rate of monetary inflation in the short run. Merging all price indices into one overall index has been rejected, not least for practical reasons. Issing (2003), though, argues that money growth can be interpreted as a proxy for the overall inflation rate; hence it is unnecessary to create a price index if the money growth rate can be used instead. This paper builds on Assenmacher-Wesche and Gerlach (2008a, b), and analyzes the relationship between money growth and different price indices such as the consumer price index, GDP deflator, share price index and house price index in eight developed countries. The results show that money growth is correlated with financial asset price inflation in the short, medium and long run. Real asset price inflation and money growth are correlated over the medium and long term and consumer inflation and money growth only over the long term. Since all movements in money growth, short term and long term, are associated with price changes, this paper concludes that money growth may serve as a proxy for the overall inflation rate.
Volume (Year): 31 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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- Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006.
"Money Growth, Output Gaps and Inflation at Low and High Frequency: Spectral Estimates for Switzerland,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5723, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Money growth, output gaps and inflation at low and high frequency: Spectral estimates for Switzerland," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 411-435, February.
- Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2006. "Money Growth, Output Gaps and Inflation at Low and High Frequency: Spectral Estimates for Switzerland," Working Papers 2006-05, Swiss National Bank.
- Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008.
"Interpreting euro area inflation at high and low frequencies,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 964-986, August.
- Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Interpreting Euro Area Inflation at High and Low Frequencies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stefan Gerlach & Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, 2006. "Interpreting Euro area inflation at high and low frequencies," BIS Working Papers 195, Bank for International Settlements.
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