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Feinstein Fulfilled: Updated Estimates of UK GDP 1841-1920

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  • Solomos Solomou
  • Ryland Thomas

Abstract

This paper attempts to bring together some of the improvements to C19th national income estimates since the publication of Charles Feinstein’s 1972 volume National Income, Expenditure and Output of the United Kingdom, 1855-1965. Most of the improvements and refinements were made by Feinstein himself and this paper makes a start in bringing the different elements together focusing chiefly on reconstructing the income-ased estimates, but also outlining where improvements might be made on the output and expenditure sides. We have also incorporated the improvements of other scholars and provided a new set of benchmark compromise estimates. We compare the productivity puzzle of the late C19th and early C20th with that of a similar puzzle observed since the Great Financial Crisis and show that many similar measurement issues are present in both episodes. In particular, we argue that further investigation of the GDP deflator and its sub- components over the 1841-1920 period is warranted.

Suggested Citation

  • Solomos Solomou & Ryland Thomas, 2019. "Feinstein Fulfilled: Updated Estimates of UK GDP 1841-1920," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Technical Reports ESCOE-TR-04, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:escoet:escoe-tr-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Leslie G. Campbell, 1985. "The United Kingdom," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: International Auditing, chapter 9, pages 105-118, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. MacKinnon, Mary, 1986. "Poor law policy, unemployment, and pauperism," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 299-336, July.
    3. Charles Feinstein, 1996. "Conjectures and Contrivances: Economic Growth and the Standard of Living in Britain,During the Industrial Revolution," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _009, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Fredrik N G Andersson & Jason Lennard, 2019. "Irish GDP between the Famine and the First World War: estimates based on a dynamic factor model," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 23(1), pages 50-71.
    5. Matthew T. Jones & Maurice Obstfeld, 1997. "Saving, Investment, and Gold: A Reassessment of Historical Current Account Data," NBER Working Papers 6103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Frank Geary & Tom Stark, 2004. "Trends in real wages during the industrial revolution: a view from across the Irish Sea," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 57(2), pages 362-395, May.
    7. Liam Brunt & Edmund Cannon, 2004. "The Irish grain trade from the Famine to the First World War," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 57(1), pages 33-79, February.
    8. E. H. Phelps Brown & S. J. Handfield-Jones, 1952. "THE CLIMACTERIC OF THE 1890's: A STUDY IN THE EXPANDING ECONOMY," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 266-307.
    9. Jason Begley & Frank Geary & Tom Stark, 2016. "Convergence in the pre-1914 Atlantic economy: what really happened to wages in Ireland between 1881 and 1911?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(1), pages 43-67.
    10. Boyer, George R. & Hatton, Timothy J., 2002. "New Estimates Of British Unemployment, 1870–1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(3), pages 643-675, September.
    11. N. F. R. Crafts & S. J. Leybourne & T. C. Mills, 1989. "Trends and Cycles in British Industrial Production, 1700–1913," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 152(1), pages 43-60, January.
    12. Feinstein, Charles H., 1989. "Wages and the paradox of the 1880s," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 237-247, April.
    13. Greasley, David, 1989. "British wages and income, 1856-1913: A revision," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 248-259, April.
    14. Phyllis Deane, 1968. "New Estimates Of Gross National Product For The United Kingdom 1830–1914," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 14(2), pages 95-112, June.
    15. Feinstein, Charles H., 1998. "Pessimism Perpetuated: Real Wages and the Standard of Living in Britain during and after the Industrial Revolution," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 625-658, September.
    16. Charles Feinstein, 1996. "Conjectures and Contrivances: Economic Growth and the Standard of Living in Britain,During the Industrial Revolution," Economics Series Working Papers 1996-W09, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Solomos Solomou & Martin Weale, 1993. "Balanced Estimates of National Accounts When Measurement Errors are Autocorrelated: The Uk, 1920–38," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 156(1), pages 89-105, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leslie Hannah & Robert Bennett, 2022. "Large‐scale Victorian manufacturers: Reconstructing the lost 1881 UK employer census," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(3), pages 830-856, August.
    2. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2019. "The Pre-1914 UK Productivity Slowdown: A Reappraisal," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 437, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    3. Stephen Broadberry & Jagjit S. Chadha & Jason Lennard & Ryland Thomas, 2023. "Dating business cycles in the United Kingdom, 1700–2010," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(4), pages 1141-1162, November.
    4. Solomos Solomou & Ryland Thomas, 2023. "Updated estimates of UK GDP from the income side, 1841–1920," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(3), pages 701-727, August.
    5. Brian D. Varian, 2023. "British exports and foreign tariffs: Insights from the Board of Trade's foreign tariff compilation for 1902," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(3), pages 827-843, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic History; Economic Growth; Economic Cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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