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An Arbitrage Model in Crop Rotation in 18th Century England

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  • Liam Brunt

Abstract

The Industrial Revolution in England was characterised by early and rapid labour release from agriculture to industry. This was facilitated by rising levels of labour productivity in agriculture which permitted labour to be released without excessive upward pressure on food prices. New technology played a central role in raising agricultural productivity but the importance of particular innovations remains controversial. In this paper we develop an arbitrage model of crop rotation which enables us to estimate the impact of crop rotation on wheat yields, requiring only the yields and prices of crops to be known. We apply this technique to eighteenth century English agriculture to assess the importance of two new crops in raising the yield of wheat (the primary agricultural output). Contrary to the received wisdom, we show that turnips substantially pushed up wheat yields but clover pushed down wheat yields. We confirm this result by comparing our estimates to both experimental data and production function estimates. Further detailed analysis facilitated by the new model enables us to explain this surprising result in terms of management practices pursued by farmers.

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  • Liam Brunt, 1999. "An Arbitrage Model in Crop Rotation in 18th Century England," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _032, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_032
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    38. David M. Engstrom, 1997. "The Economic Determinants of Ethnic Segregation in Post-War Britain," Economics Series Working Papers 1997-W12, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Regina Grafe, 2004. "Popish habits vs. nutritional need: Fasting and fish consumption in Iberia in the early modern period," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _055, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Daudin, Guillaume, 2010. "Domestic Trade and Market Size in Late-Eighteenth-Century France," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(3), pages 716-743, September.
    4. Walter  Eltis, 2001. "Lord Overstone and the Establishment of British Nineteenth-Century Monetary Orthodoxy," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _042, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Asadullah, Mohammad Niaz, 2010. "Educational Disparity in East and West Pakistan, 1947-71: Was East Pakistan Discriminated Against?," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 33(3), pages 1-46, September.
    6. Jacob Weisdorf & Paul Sharp, 2009. "From preventive to permissive checks: the changing nature of the Malthusian relationship between nuptiality and the price of provisions in the nineteenth century," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 3(1), pages 55-70, January.
    7. Richard H. Steckel, 2005. "Fluctuations in a Dreadful Childhood: Synthetic Longitudinal Height Data, Relative Prices, and Weather in the Short-Term Health of American Slaves," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _058, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Alasdair  Crockett, 2000. "Variations in Churchgoing Rates in England in 1851: Supply-side Deficiency or Demand-led Decline?," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _036, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Alexandre Debs, 2003. "The Source of Walras`s Idealist Bias: A Review of Koppl`s Solution to the Walras Paradox," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _049, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    10. Regina Grafe & Camilla Brautaset, 2006. "The Quiet Transport Revolution: Returns to Scale, Scope and Network Density in Norway`s Nineteenth-Century Sailing Fleet," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _062, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    11. Jane Humphries & Tim Leunig, 2007. "Cities, Market Integration and Going to Sea: Stunting and the Standard of Living in Early Nineteenth-Century England and Wales," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _066, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Liam Brunt, 2000. "Where theres Muck theres Brass The Market for Manure in the Industrial Revolution," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _035, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. Robert Dryburgh, 2003. "Individual, Illegal, and Unjust Purposes`: Overseers, Incentives, and the Old Poor Law in Bolton, 1820-1837," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _050, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    14. Natalia Mora-Sitja, 2006. "Exploring Changes in Earnings Inequality during Industrialization: Barcelona, 1856-1905," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _061, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. Castellazzi, M.S. & Wood, G.A. & Burgess, P.J. & Morris, J. & Conrad, K.F. & Perry, J.N., 2008. "A systematic representation of crop rotations," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 97(1-2), pages 26-33, April.
    16. Deininger,Klaus W. & Ali,Daniel Ayalew & Kussul,Nataliia & Lavreniuk,Mykola & Nivievskyi,Oleg, 2020. "Using Machine Learning to Assess Yield Impacts of Crop Rotation : Combining Satellite and Statistical Data for Ukraine," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9306, The World Bank.

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