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Estimating English Wheat Production in the Industrial Revolution

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  • Liam Brunt

Abstract

Wheat was the single most important product of the British economy during the Industrial Revolution, being both the largest component of national income and the primary determinant of caloric intake. This paper offers new estimates of annual wheat production during industrialisation. Whereas other researchers infer wheat production indirectly from demand equations, we estimate production directly from output equations. Our estimates are based on a new time series model of wheat yields, encompassing both environmental and technological variables. We trace the impact of war and population growth on wheat yields, mediated through changes in the economic incentives for wheat cultivation. We test the accuracy of our new wheat output series by modelling the market price of wheat in England between 1700 and 1825.

Suggested Citation

  • Liam Brunt, 1999. "Estimating English Wheat Production in the Industrial Revolution," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _029, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_029
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    File URL: https://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/history/
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    Cited by:

    1. Studer, Roman, 2008. "India and the Great Divergence: Assessing the Efficiency of Grain Markets in Eighteenth- and Nineteenth-Century India," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 393-437, June.
    2. Alasdair  Crockett, 2000. "Variations in Churchgoing Rates in England in 1851: Supply-side Deficiency or Demand-led Decline?," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _036, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Jane Humphries & Tim Leunig, 2007. "Cities, Market Integration and Going to Sea: Stunting and the Standard of Living in Early Nineteenth-Century England and Wales," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _066, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. J.Humphries & T. Leunig, 2007. "Cities, Market Integration and Going to Sea: Stunting and the standard of living in early nineteenth-century England and Wales," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _066, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    5. Jacob Weisdorf & Paul Sharp, 2009. "From preventive to permissive checks: the changing nature of the Malthusian relationship between nuptiality and the price of provisions in the nineteenth century," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 3(1), pages 55-70, January.
    6. Walter  Eltis, 2001. "Lord Overstone and the Establishment of British Nineteenth-Century Monetary Orthodoxy," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _042, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. Daudin, Guillaume, 2010. "Domestic Trade and Market Size in Late-Eighteenth-Century France," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(3), pages 716-743, September.
    8. Liam Brunt, 1999. "An Arbitrage Model in Crop Rotation in 18th Century England," Economics Series Working Papers 1999-W32, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Liam Brunt, 2000. "Where theres Muck theres Brass The Market for Manure in the Industrial Revolution," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _035, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    10. repec:oxf:wpaper:69.2 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Walter Eltis, 2001. "Lord Overstone and the Establishment of British Nineteenth-Century Monetary Orthodoxy," Economics Series Working Papers 2001-W42, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Alexandre Debs, 2003. "The Source of Walras`s Idealist Bias: A Review of Koppl`s Solution to the Walras Paradox," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _049, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. Chalkley, Martin & Malcomson, James M., 2002. "Cost sharing in health service provision: an empirical assessment of cost savings," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 219-249, May.
    14. Utsa Patnaik, 2012. "Some Aspects of the Contemporary Agrarian Question," Agrarian South: Journal of Political Economy, Centre for Agrarian Research and Education for South, vol. 1(3), pages 233-254, December.
    15. Robert Dryburgh, 2003. "Individual, Illegal, and Unjust Purposes`: Overseers, Incentives, and the Old Poor Law in Bolton, 1820-1837," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _050, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    16. Regina Grafe, 2004. "Popish habits vs. nutritional need: Fasting and fish consumption in Iberia in the early modern period," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _055, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Liam Brunt, 1999. "An Arbitrage Model in Crop Rotation in 18th Century England," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _032, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    18. Regina Grafe, 2004. "Popish Habits vs. Nutritional Need: Fasting and Fish Consumption in Iberia in the Early Modern Period," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _055, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    19. Richard H. Steckel, 2005. "Fluctuations in a Dreadful Childhood: Synthetic Longitudinal Height Data, Relative Prices, and Weather in the Short-Term Health of American Slaves," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _058, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2241 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Alexandre Debs, 2003. "The Source of Walras`s Idealist Bias: A Review of Koppl`s Solution to the Walras Paradox," Economics Series Working Papers 2003-W49, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

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