IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/9306.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Using Machine Learning to Assess Yield Impacts of Crop Rotation : Combining Satellite and Statistical Data for Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Deininger,Klaus W.
  • Ali,Daniel Ayalew
  • Kussul,Nataliia
  • Lavreniuk,Mykola
  • Nivievskyi,Oleg

Abstract

To overcome the constraints for policy and practice posed by limited availability of data on crop rotation, this paper applies machine learning to freely available satellite imagery to identify the rotational practices of more than 7,000 villages in Ukraine. Rotation effects estimated based on combining these data with survey-based yield information point toward statistically significant and economically meaningful effects that differ from what has been reported in the literature, highlighting the value of this approach. Independently derived indices of vegetative development and soil water content produce similar results, not only supporting the robustness of the results, but also suggesting that the opportunities for spatial and temporal disaggregation inherent in such data offer tremendous unexploited opportunities for policy-relevant analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Deininger,Klaus W. & Ali,Daniel Ayalew & Kussul,Nataliia & Lavreniuk,Mykola & Nivievskyi,Oleg, 2020. "Using Machine Learning to Assess Yield Impacts of Crop Rotation : Combining Satellite and Statistical Data for Ukraine," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9306, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9306
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/459481593442273789/pdf/Using-Machine-Learning-to-Assess-Yield-Impacts-of-Crop-Rotation-Combining-Satellite-and-Statistical-Data-for-Ukraine.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Livingston & Michael J. Roberts & Yue Zhang, 2015. "Optimal Sequential Plantings of Corn and Soybeans Under Price Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(3), pages 855-878.
    2. Klaus Deininger & Denys Nizalov & Sudhir K Singh, 2018. "Determinants of Productivity and Structural Change in a Large Commercial Farm Environment: Evidence from Ukraine," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 32(2), pages 287-306.
    3. Regis Mauri, Geraldo, 2019. "Improved mathematical model and bounds for the crop rotation scheduling problem with adjacency constraints," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 120-135.
    4. David A. Hennessy, 2006. "On Monoculture and the Structure of Crop Rotations," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(4), pages 900-914.
    5. Wang, Haoying & Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel, 2019. "Market-Driven Corn Monocropping in the U.S. Midwest," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 274-296, August.
    6. Krupinsky, J.M. & Tanaka, D.L. & Merrill, S.D. & Liebig, M.A. & Hanson, J.D., 2006. "Crop sequence effects of 10 crops in the northern Great Plains," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 88(2-3), pages 227-254, June.
    7. Nathan P. Hendricks & Aaron Smith & Daniel A. Sumner, 2014. "Crop Supply Dynamics and the Illusion of Partial Adjustment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1469-1491.
    8. Mitchell, Paul D., 2011. "Economic Assessment of the Benefits of Chloro-s-triazine Herbicides to U.S. Corn, Sorghum, and Sugarcane Producers," Staff Paper Series 564, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    9. Leonid A. Krasnozhon, 2013. "Political Economy of Agricultural Market Reform in Ukraine: “Good Bye Lenin”," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 29(Fall 2013), pages 119-140.
    10. Liam Brunt, 1999. "An Arbitrage Model in Crop Rotation in 18th Century England," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _032, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    11. Castellazzi, M.S. & Wood, G.A. & Burgess, P.J. & Morris, J. & Conrad, K.F. & Perry, J.N., 2008. "A systematic representation of crop rotations," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 97(1-2), pages 26-33, April.
    12. Qiao, Fangbin & Huang, Jikun & Wang, Xiaobing, 2017. "Fifteen Years of Bt Cotton in China: Results from Household Surveys," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 351-359.
    13. Liam Brunt, 1999. "An Arbitrage Model in Crop Rotation in 18th Century England," Economics Series Working Papers 1999-W32, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    14. Carlos Arnade & Linwood Hoffman, 2019. "Determination of the international maize price: What is the growing role of Brazil and Ukraine?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(6), pages 735-747, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Studer, Roman, 2008. "India and the Great Divergence: Assessing the Efficiency of Grain Markets in Eighteenth- and Nineteenth-Century India," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 393-437, June.
    2. Ji, Yongjie & Rabotyagov, sergey & Valcu-Lisman, Adriana, 2015. "Estimating Adoption of Cover Crops Using Preferences Revealed by a Dynamic Crop Choice Model," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205799, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Federico Ciliberto & GianCarlo Moschini & Edward D. Perry, 2019. "Valuing product innovation: genetically engineered varieties in US corn and soybeans," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 50(3), pages 615-644, September.
    4. Walter  Eltis, 2001. "Lord Overstone and the Establishment of British Nineteenth-Century Monetary Orthodoxy," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _042, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Jacob Weisdorf & Paul Sharp, 2009. "From preventive to permissive checks: the changing nature of the Malthusian relationship between nuptiality and the price of provisions in the nineteenth century," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 3(1), pages 55-70, January.
    6. Regina Grafe & Camilla Brautaset, 2006. "The Quiet Transport Revolution: Returns to Scale, Scope and Network Density in Norway`s Nineteenth-Century Sailing Fleet," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _062, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. Robert Dryburgh, 2003. "Individual, Illegal, and Unjust Purposes`: Overseers, Incentives, and the Old Poor Law in Bolton, 1820-1837," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _050, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Stevens, Andrew, 2015. "Fueling Local Water Pollution: Ethanol Refineries, Land Use, and Nitrate Runoff," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205741, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Cui, Xiaomeng, 2020. "Climate change and adaptation in agriculture: Evidence from US cropping patterns," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    10. Jane Humphries & Tim Leunig, 2007. "Cities, Market Integration and Going to Sea: Stunting and the Standard of Living in Early Nineteenth-Century England and Wales," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _066, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    11. Asadullah, Mohammad Niaz, 2010. "Educational Disparity in East and West Pakistan, 1947-71: Was East Pakistan Discriminated Against?," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 33(3), pages 1-46, September.
    12. Daudin, Guillaume, 2010. "Domestic Trade and Market Size in Late-Eighteenth-Century France," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(3), pages 716-743, September.
    13. Alexandre Debs, 2003. "The Source of Walras`s Idealist Bias: A Review of Koppl`s Solution to the Walras Paradox," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _049, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    14. Carpentier, Alain & Gohin, Alexandre, 2015. "On the economic theory of crop rotations: value of the crop rotation effects and implications on acreage choice modeling," Working Papers 205299, Institut National de la recherche Agronomique (INRA), Departement Sciences Sociales, Agriculture et Alimentation, Espace et Environnement (SAE2).
    15. Natalia Mora-Sitja, 2006. "Exploring Changes in Earnings Inequality during Industrialization: Barcelona, 1856-1905," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _061, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    16. Regina Grafe, 2004. "Popish habits vs. nutritional need: Fasting and fish consumption in Iberia in the early modern period," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _055, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Alasdair  Crockett, 2000. "Variations in Churchgoing Rates in England in 1851: Supply-side Deficiency or Demand-led Decline?," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _036, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    18. Stephen E. Chick & Sameer Hasija & Javad Nasiry, 2017. "Information Elicitation and Influenza Vaccine Production," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 75-96, February.
    19. Onur Boyabatlı & Javad Nasiry & Yangfang (Helen) Zhou, 2019. "Crop Planning in Sustainable Agriculture: Dynamic Farmland Allocation in the Presence of Crop Rotation Benefits," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(5), pages 2060-2076, May.
    20. Richard H. Steckel, 2005. "Fluctuations in a Dreadful Childhood: Synthetic Longitudinal Height Data, Relative Prices, and Weather in the Short-Term Health of American Slaves," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _058, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9306. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.