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Who will feed China in the 21st century ? income growth and food demand and supply in China

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  • Fukase, Emiko
  • Martin, Will

Abstract

This paper uses resource-based cereal equivalent measures to explore the evolution of China's demand and supply for food. Although demand for food calories is probably close to its peak level in China, the ongoing dietary shift to animal-based foods, induced by income growth, is likely to impose considerable pressure on agricultural resources. Estimating the relationship between income growth and food demand with data from a wide range of countries, China's demand growth appears to have been broadly similar to the global trend. On the supply side, output of food depends strongly on the productivity growth associated with income growth and on the country's agricultural land endowment, with China appearing to be an out-performer. The analyses of income-consumption-production dynamics suggest that China's current income level falls in the range where consumption growth outstrips production growth, but that the gap is likely to begin to decline as China's population growth and dietary transition slow down. Continued agricultural productivity growth through further investment in research and development, and expansion in farm size and increased mechanization, as well as sustainable management of agricultural resources, are vital for ensuring that it is primarily China that will feed China in the 21st century.

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  • Fukase, Emiko & Martin, Will, 2014. "Who will feed China in the 21st century ? income growth and food demand and supply in China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6926, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6926
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    Cited by:

    1. Emiko Fukase & Will Martin, 2016. "Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income Growth and Food Demand and Supply in China," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 3-23, February.
    2. Fabio Gaetano Santeramo & Dragan Miljkovic & Emilia Lamonaca, 2021. "Agri-food trade and climate change," ECONOMIA AGRO-ALIMENTARE, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 23(1), pages 1-18.
    3. Meng Wang & Xiaofang Sun & Zemeng Fan & Tianxiang Yue, 2019. "Investigation of Future Land Use Change and Implications for Cropland Quality: The Case of China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(12), pages 1-18, June.
    4. Laborde Debucquet, David & Martin, Will, 2016. "Implications of slowing growth in emerging market economies for hunger and poverty in rural areas of developing countries:," IFPRI discussion papers 1554, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Fukase, Emiko & Martin, Will, 2020. "Economic growth, convergence, and world food demand and supply," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    6. Zhao, Zhe & Wang, Pei & Chen, Jiancheng & Zhang, Fan, 2021. "Economic spillover effect of grass-based livestock husbandry on agricultural production—A case study in Hulun Buir, China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
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    8. I. P. Glazyrina & L. M. Faleychik & A. A. Faleychik, 2020. "Russia’s Eastern Border: Spatial Heterogeneity of Incomes and Problems of Population Retention," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 476-493, October.
    9. Xiaoheng Zhang & Xiaohua Yu & Xu Tian & Xianhui Geng & Yingheng Zhou, 2019. "Farm size, inefficiency, and rice production cost in China," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 57-68, December.
    10. Tian, Junyan & Shen, Jinhu & Umetsu, Chieko, 2021. "China's Bovine Meat Import Surge and Its Drivers: The Mixed Gravity and Import Demand Model Approach," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 314952, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Yang, Hongbo & Dietz, Thomas & Yang, Wu & Zhang, Jindong & Liu, Jianguo, 2018. "Changes in Human Well-being and Rural Livelihoods Under Natural Disasters," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 184-194.
    12. Rebecca Lima Albuquerque Maranhão & Osmar Abílio de Carvalho Júnior & Potira Meirelles Hermuche & Roberto Arnaldo Trancoso Gomes & Concepta Margaret McManus Pimentel & Renato Fontes Guimarães, 2019. "The Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Soybean and Cattle Production in Brazil," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(7), pages 1-13, April.
    13. Yang Chi & Congcong Yu & Xiaohui Qi & Hao Xu, 2018. "Knowledge Management in Healthcare Sustainability: A Smart Healthy Diet Assistant in Traditional Chinese Medicine Culture," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(11), pages 1-21, November.
    14. Fang Xia & Lingling Hou & Songqing Jin & Dongqing Li, 2020. "Land size and productivity in the livestock sector: evidence from pastoral areas in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), pages 867-888, July.
    15. Xin, Liangjie & Li, Xiubin, 2018. "China should not massively reclaim new farmland," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 12-15.

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