IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/6926.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Who will feed China in the 21st century ? income growth and food demand and supply in China

Author

Listed:
  • Fukase, Emiko
  • Martin, Will

Abstract

This paper uses resource-based cereal equivalent measures to explore the evolution of China's demand and supply for food. Although demand for food calories is probably close to its peak level in China, the ongoing dietary shift to animal-based foods, induced by income growth, is likely to impose considerable pressure on agricultural resources. Estimating the relationship between income growth and food demand with data from a wide range of countries, China's demand growth appears to have been broadly similar to the global trend. On the supply side, output of food depends strongly on the productivity growth associated with income growth and on the country's agricultural land endowment, with China appearing to be an out-performer. The analyses of income-consumption-production dynamics suggest that China's current income level falls in the range where consumption growth outstrips production growth, but that the gap is likely to begin to decline as China's population growth and dietary transition slow down. Continued agricultural productivity growth through further investment in research and development, and expansion in farm size and increased mechanization, as well as sustainable management of agricultural resources, are vital for ensuring that it is primarily China that will feed China in the 21st century.

Suggested Citation

  • Fukase, Emiko & Martin, Will, 2014. "Who will feed China in the 21st century ? income growth and food demand and supply in China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6926, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6926
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/06/17/000158349_20140617091204/Rendered/PDF/WPS6926.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Jikun & David, Cristina C., 1993. "Demand for cereal grains in Asia: the effect of urbanization," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 8(2), February.
    2. Hui Ju & Marijn Velde & Erda Lin & Wei Xiong & Yingchun Li, 2013. "The impacts of climate change on agricultural production systems in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 313-324, September.
    3. William J. Martin & Darrell Porter, 1985. "Testing For Changes In The Structure Of The Demand For Meat In Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 29(1), pages 16-31, April.
    4. Christiaensen, Luc & Demery, Lionel & Kuhl, Jesper, 2011. "The (evolving) role of agriculture in poverty reduction--An empirical perspective," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 239-254, November.
    5. David Atkin, 2013. "Trade, Tastes, and Nutrition in India," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1629-1663, August.
    6. Emiko Fukase & Will Martin, 2016. "Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income Growth and Food Demand and Supply in China," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 3-23, February.
    7. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2014. "Food security policy options for China: Lessons from other countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P1), pages 50-58.
    8. Fuglie, Keith O. & Wang, Sun Ling, 2012. "Productivity Growth in Global Agriculture Shifting to Developing Countries," Choices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 27(4).
    9. Frank Fuller & Dermot Hayes & Darnell Smith, 2000. "Reconciling Chinese Meat Production and Consumption Data," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(1), pages 23-44.
    10. Alejandro Nin-Pratt & Bingxin Yu & Shenggen Fan, 2010. "Comparisons of agricultural productivity growth in China and India," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 209-223, June.
    11. Songqing Jin & Jikun Huang & Ruifa Hu & Scott Rozelle, 2002. "The Creation and Spread of Technology and Total Factor Productivity in China's Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(4), pages 916-930.
    12. Gerbens-Leenes, P. W. & Nonhebel, S., 2002. "Consumption patterns and their effects on land required for food," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 185-199, August.
    13. Deininger, Klaus & Jin, Songqing, 2005. "The potential of land rental markets in the process of economic development: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 241-270, October.
    14. Wang, Xiaobing & Yamauchi, Futoshi & Otsuka, Keijiro & Huang, Jikun, 2016. "Wage Growth, Landholding, and Mechanization in Chinese Agriculture," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 30-45.
    15. Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott, 1996. "Technological change: Rediscovering the engine of productivity growth in China's rural economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 337-369, May.
    16. Kazushi Takahashi & Keijiro Otsuka, 2009. "The increasing importance of nonfarm income and the changing use of labor and capital in rice farming: the case of Central Luzon, 1979-2003," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(2), pages 231-242, March.
    17. Rask, Kolleen J. & Rask, Norman, 2011. "Economic development and food production-consumption balance: A growing global challenge," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 186-196, April.
    18. Kolleen Rask & Norman Rask, 2004. "Reaching Turning Points in Economic Transition: Adjustments to Distortions in Resource-based Consumption of Food," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(4), pages 542-569, December.
    19. Fiala, Nathan, 2008. "Meeting the demand: An estimation of potential future greenhouse gas emissions from meat production," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 412-419, October.
    20. Shenggen Fan & Xiaobo Zhang & Sherman Robinson, 2003. "Structural Change and Economic Growth in China," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 360-377, August.
    21. Ma, Hengyun & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott, 2004. "Reassessing China's Livestock Statistics: An Analysis of Discrepancies and the Creation of New Data Series," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(2), pages 445-473, January.
    22. Keijiro Otsuka, 2013. "Food insecurity, income inequality, and the changing comparative advantage in world agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(s1), pages 7-18, November.
    23. Philip G. Pardey & Jason M. Beddow & Terrance M. Hurley & Timothy K.M. Beatty & Vernon R. Eidman, 2014. "A Bounds Analysis of World Food Futures: Global Agriculture Through to 2050," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(4), pages 571-589, October.
    24. Zhen, Lin & Cao, Shuyan & Cheng, Shengkui & Xie, Gaodi & Wei, Yunjie & Liu, Xuelin & Li, Fen, 2010. "Arable land requirements based on food consumption patterns: Case study in rural Guyuan District, Western China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(7), pages 1443-1453, May.
    25. Scott Rozelle & Johan F.M. Swinnen, 2004. "Success and Failure of Reform: Insights from the Transition of Agriculture," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(2), pages 404-456, June.
    26. Yotopoulos, Pan A, 1985. "Middle-Income Classes and Food Crises: The "New" Food-Feed Competition," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(3), pages 463-483, April.
    27. Stigler, George J & Becker, Gary S, 1977. "De Gustibus Non Est Disputandum," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 76-90, March.
    28. Martin, Will & Mitra, Devashish, 2001. "Productivity Growth and Convergence in Agriculture versus Manufacturing," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 403-422, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fukase,Emiko & Martin,William J., 2017. "Economic growth, convergence, and world food demand and supply," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8257, The World Bank.
    2. Emiko Fukase & Will Martin, 2016. "Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income Growth and Food Demand and Supply in China," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 3-23, February.
    3. Laborde Debucquet, David & Martin, Will, 2016. "Implications of slowing growth in emerging market economies for hunger and poverty in rural areas of developing countries:," IFPRI discussion papers 1554, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food&Beverage Industry; Economic Theory&Research; Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems; Livestock and Animal Husbandry; Regional Economic Development;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6926. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.