IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/5479.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the road to prosperity ? The economic geography of China's national expressway network

Author

Listed:
  • Roberts, Mark
  • Deichmann, Uwe
  • Fingleton, Bernard
  • Shi, Tuo

Abstract

Over the past two decades, China has embarked on an ambitious program of expressway network expansion. By facilitating market integration, this program aims both to promote efficiency at the national level and to contribute to the catch-up of lagging inland regions with prosperous Eastern ones. This paper evaluates the aggregate and spatial economic impacts of China's newly constructed National Expressway Network, focussing, in particular, on its short-run impacts. To achieve this aim, the authors adopt a counterfactual approach based on the estimation and simulation of a structural"new economic geography"model. Overall, they find that aggregate Chinese real income was approximately 6 percent higher than it would have been in 2007 had the expressway network not been built. Although there is considerable heterogeneity in the results, the authors do not find evidence of a significant reduction in disparities across prefectural level regions or of a reduction in urban-rural disparities. If anything, the expressway network appears to have reinforced existing patterns of spatial inequality, although, over time, these will likely be reduced by enhanced migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberts, Mark & Deichmann, Uwe & Fingleton, Bernard & Shi, Tuo, 2010. "On the road to prosperity ? The economic geography of China's national expressway network," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5479, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5479
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2010/11/15/000158349_20101115151238/Rendered/PDF/WPS5479.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Meng, Xin & Gregory, Robert & Wang, Youjuan, 2005. "Poverty, inequality, and growth in urban China, 1986-2000," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 710-729, December.
    2. Thierry Mayer, 2008. "Market Potential and Development," Working Papers hal-01066164, HAL.
    3. Laura Hering & Sandra Poncet, 2010. "Market Access and Individual Wages: Evidence from China," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 145-159, February.
    4. Stephane Straub, 2011. "Infrastructure and Development: A Critical Appraisal of the Macro-level Literature," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 683-708.
    5. Sylvie Démurger & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Wing Thye Woo & Shuming Bao & Gene Chang & Andrew Mellinger, 2002. "Geography, Economic Policy, and Regional Development in China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 146-197.
    6. Vickerman, R., 2000. "Evaluation methodologies for transport projects in the United Kingdom," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 7-16, January.
    7. Bernard Fingleton & Julie Le Gallo, 2008. "Estimating spatial models with endogenous variables, a spatial lag and spatially dependent disturbances: Finite sample properties," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(3), pages 319-339, August.
    8. Laura Hering & Sandra Poncet, 2010. "Income Per Capita Inequality in China: The Role of Economic Geography and Spatial Interactions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5), pages 655-679, May.
    9. Pierre-Philippe Combes & Miren Lafourcade, 2005. "Transport costs: measures, determinants, and regional policy implications for France," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 319-349, June.
    10. Philip McCann, 2005. "Transport costs and new economic geography," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 305-318, June.
    11. John G. Fernald, 1999. "Roads to Prosperity? Assessing the Link between Public Capital and Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 619-638, June.
    12. Jens Suedekum, 2005. "Increasing returns and spatial unemployment disparities," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(2), pages 159-181, June.
    13. J.Peter Neary, 2001. "Of Hype and Hyperbolas: Introducing the New Economic Geography," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 536-561, June.
    14. Bernard Fingleton, 2005. "Towards applied geographical economics: modelling relative wage rates, incomes and prices for the regions of Great Britain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2417-2428.
    15. Bernard Fingleton & Manfred Fischer, 2010. "Neoclassical theory versus new economic geography: competing explanations of cross-regional variation in economic development," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 44(3), pages 467-491, June.
    16. Chandra, Amitabh & Thompson, Eric, 2000. "Does public infrastructure affect economic activity?: Evidence from the rural interstate highway system," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 457-490, July.
    17. Guy Michaels, 2008. "The Effect of Trade on the Demand for Skill: Evidence from the Interstate Highway System," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 683-701, November.
    18. Fingleton, Bernard, 2008. "Competing models of global dynamics: Evidence from panel models with spatially correlated error components," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 542-558, May.
    19. Keeler, Theodore E. & Ying, John S., 1988. "Measuring the benefits of a large public investment : The case of the U.S. Federal-aid highway system," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 69-85, June.
    20. H. Hanson, Gordon, 2005. "Market potential, increasing returns and geographic concentration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-24, September.
    21. Mion, Giordano, 2004. "Spatial externalities and empirical analysis: the case of Italy," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 97-118, July.
    22. Hanson, Gordon H, 1997. "Increasing Returns, Trade and the Regional Structure of Wages," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 113-133, January.
    23. Bernard Fingleton, 2006. "The new economic geography versus urban economics: an evaluation using local wage rates in Great Britain," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 501-530, July.
    24. Bernard Fingleton, 2005. "Beyond neoclassical orthodoxy: A view based on the new economic geography and UK regional wage data," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(3), pages 351-375, August.
    25. Shirley, Chad & Winston, Clifford, 2004. "Firm inventory behavior and the returns from highway infrastructure investments," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 398-415, March.
    26. Ana Isabel Moreno-Monroy, 2008. "The dynamics of spatial agglomeration in China: an empirical assessment," Economics Program Working Papers 08-06, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. On the road: understanding the benefits from infrastructure investment
      by Straub in Stephane Straub on 2012-06-10 18:10:00

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. de Soyres, François & Mulabdic, Alen & Murray, Siobhan & Rocha, Nadia & Ruta, Michele, 2019. "How much will the Belt and Road Initiative reduce trade costs?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 151-164.
    2. Fabrizio Barca & Philip McCann & Andrés Rodríguez‐Pose, 2012. "The Case For Regional Development Intervention: Place‐Based Versus Place‐Neutral Approaches," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 134-152, February.
    3. Lin, Justin Yifu & Doemeland, Doerte, 2012. "Beyond Keynesianism : global infrastructure investments in times of crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5940, The World Bank.
    4. Roberts, Mark & Deichmann, Uwe & Fingleton, Bernard & Shi, Tuo, 2012. "Evaluating China's road to prosperity: A new economic geography approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 580-594.
    5. Lin, Justin Yifu, 2013. "Global infrastructure initiative and global recovery," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 400-411.
    6. Man Li & JunJie Wu & Xiangzheng Deng, 2013. "Identifying Drivers of Land Use Change in China: A Spatial Multinomial Logit Model Analysis," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(4), pages 632-654.
    7. Justin Yifu Lin & Doerte Doemeland, 2012. "Beyond Keynesianism: Global Infrastructure Investments In Times Of Crisis," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 1-29.
    8. Ying Jin & Richard Bullock & Wanli Fang, . "Regional Impacts of High Speed Rail in China : Spatial Proximity and Productivity in an Emerging Economy," World Bank Other Operational Studies, The World Bank, number 19989.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roberts, Mark & Deichmann, Uwe & Fingleton, Bernard & Shi, Tuo, 2012. "Evaluating China's road to prosperity: A new economic geography approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 580-594.
    2. Breinlich, Holger & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2014. "Regional Growth and Regional Decline," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 4, pages 683-779, Elsevier.
    3. Rosa Sanchis-Guarner, 2012. "Driving Up Wages: The Effects of Road Construction in Great Britain," SERC Discussion Papers 0120, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
    4. repec:esx:essedp:729 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Dusan Paredes, 2010. "The Role of Regional Price Index in New Economic Geography Models," Documentos de Trabajo en Economia y Ciencia Regional 07, Universidad Catolica del Norte, Chile, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2010.
    6. Maarten Bosker & Harry Garretsen, 2010. "Trade costs in empirical New Economic Geography," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(3), pages 485-511, August.
    7. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Arne Feddersen, 2010. "From periphery to core: economic adjustments to high speed rail," Working Papers 2010/38, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    8. Hering, Laura & Poncet, Sandra, 2009. "The impact of economic geography on wages: Disentangling the channels of influence," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-14, March.
    9. Gibbons, Stephen & Lyytikäinen, Teemu & Overman, Henry G. & Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa, 2019. "New road infrastructure: The effects on firms," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 35-50.
    10. Laura Hering & Sandra Poncet, 2010. "Income Per Capita Inequality in China: The Role of Economic Geography and Spatial Interactions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5), pages 655-679, May.
    11. Bernard Fingleton & Manfred Fischer, 2010. "Neoclassical theory versus new economic geography: competing explanations of cross-regional variation in economic development," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 44(3), pages 467-491, June.
    12. Pierre-Philippe Combes, 2011. "The empirics of economic geography: how to draw policy implications?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(3), pages 567-592, September.
    13. Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Gobillon, Laurent, 2015. "The Empirics of Agglomeration Economies," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 247-348, Elsevier.
    14. Stephen J. Redding, 2013. "Economic Geography: A Review of the Theoretical and Empirical Literature," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Daniel Bernhofen & Rod Falvey & David Greenaway & Udo Kreickemeier (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of International Trade, chapter 16, pages 497-531, Palgrave Macmillan.
    15. Claudia N. Berg & Uwe Deichmann & Yishen Liu & Harris Selod, 2017. "Transport Policies and Development," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(4), pages 465-480, April.
    16. Kristian Behrens & Frédéric Robert‐Nicoud, 2009. "Krugman's Papers in Regional Science: The 100 dollar bill on the sidewalk is gone and the 2008 Nobel Prize well‐deserved," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(2), pages 467-489, June.
    17. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Cristea, Anca D., 2015. "Air service and urban growth: Evidence from a quasi-natural policy experiment," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 128-146.
    18. Rafael Alvarado & Miguel Atienza, 2014. "The role of market access and human capital in regional wage disparities: Empirical evidence for Ecuador," Documentos de Trabajo en Economia y Ciencia Regional 50, Universidad Catolica del Norte, Chile, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2014.
    19. Burhan Can Karahasan & Firat Bilgel, 2018. "Economic Geography, Growth Dynamics and Human Capital Accumulation in Turkey: Evidence from Regional and Micro Data," Working Papers 1233, Economic Research Forum, revised 10 Oct 2018.
    20. Michael Iacono & David Levinson, 2012. "Rural Highway Expansion and Economic Development: Impacts on Private Earnings and Employment," Working Papers 000101, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    21. Henry G. Overman, 2010. "“Gis A Job”: What Use Geographical Information Systems In Spatial Economics?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 165-180, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transport Economics Policy&Planning; Economic Theory&Research; Labor Policies; Roads&Highways; Regional Economic Development;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5479. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.