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Exchange Rates and Fundamentals:Closing a Two-country Model

  • Takashi Kano

    (Faculty of Economics, Hitotsubashi University)

In an influential paper, Engel and West (2005) claim that the near random-walk behavior of nom- inal exchange rates is an equilibrium outcome of a variant of present-value models when economic fundamentals follow exogenous first-order integrated processes and the discount factor approaches one. Subsequent empirical studies further confirm this proposition by estimating a discount factor that is close to one under distinct identification schemes. In this paper, I argue that the unit market discount factor implies the counterfactual joint equilibrium dynamics of random-walk ex- change rates and economic fundamentals within a canonical, two-country, incomplete market model. Bayesian posterior simulation exercises of a two-country model based on post-Bretton Woods data from Canada and the United States reveal difficulties in reconciling the equilibrium random-walk proposition within the two-country model; in particular, the market discount factor is identified as being much lower than one.

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Paper provided by University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics in its series UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series with number 011.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:upd:utppwp:011
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Web page: http://www.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
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  1. John Geweke, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73.
  2. Peter N. Ireland, 2013. "Stochastic Growth In The United States And Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, 02.
  3. Nason, James M. & Rogers, John H., 2006. "The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 159-187, January.
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  5. Takashi Kano & Hafedh Bouakez, 2005. "Learning-by-Doing or Habit Formation?," 2005 Meeting Papers 513, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Takashi Kano, 2007. "Habit Formation and the Present-Value Model of the Current Account: Yet Another Suspect," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-505, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
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  12. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Exchange rates and fundamentals," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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  16. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Investment; Specific Technology Shocks and International Business Cycles: An Empirical Assessment," IMF Working Papers 10/207, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Bayesian Estimation of an Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-Through," Working Paper Series 179, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  18. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open-economy model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 93-128.
  19. Bodenstein, Martin, 2011. "Closing large open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 160-177, July.
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