IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Exchange Rates and Fundamentals:Closing a Two-country Model

  • Takashi Kano

    (Faculty of Economics, Hitotsubashi University)

In an influential paper, Engel and West (2005) claim that the near random-walk behavior of nom- inal exchange rates is an equilibrium outcome of a variant of present-value models when economic fundamentals follow exogenous first-order integrated processes and the discount factor approaches one. Subsequent empirical studies further confirm this proposition by estimating a discount factor that is close to one under distinct identification schemes. In this paper, I argue that the unit market discount factor implies the counterfactual joint equilibrium dynamics of random-walk ex- change rates and economic fundamentals within a canonical, two-country, incomplete market model. Bayesian posterior simulation exercises of a two-country model based on post-Bretton Woods data from Canada and the United States reveal difficulties in reconciling the equilibrium random-walk proposition within the two-country model; in particular, the market discount factor is identified as being much lower than one.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.price.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/img/researchdata/pdf/p_wp017.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics in its series UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series with number 011.

as
in new window

Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:upd:utppwp:011
Contact details of provider: Postal:
University of Tokyo 702 Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-0033, Japan

Phone: +81-3-3812-2111
Web page: http://www.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Benigno, Gianluca & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2006. "Consumption and Real Exchange Rates with Incomplete Markets and Non-Traded Goods," CEPR Discussion Papers 5580, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Peter N. Ireland, 2009. "Stochastic Growth in the United States and Euro Area," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 713, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Aug 2010.
  3. Bodenstein, Martin, 2011. "Closing large open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 160-177, July.
  4. Hafedh Bouakez & Takashi Kano, 2005. "Learning-by-Doing or Habit Formation?," Staff Working Papers 05-15, Bank of Canada.
  5. Federico Mandelman & Pau Rabanal & Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramirez & Diego Vilan, 2011. "Investment Specific Technology Shocks and International Business Cycles: An Empirical Assessment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 136-155, January.
  6. Takashi Kano, 2007. "Habit Formation and the Present-Value Model of the Current Account: Yet Another Suspect," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-505, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  7. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
  9. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Exchange rates and fundamentals," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  10. Martin Boileau & Michel Normandin, 2005. "Closing International Real Business Cycle Models with Restricted Financial Markets," Cahiers de recherche 0506, CIRPEE.
  11. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
  12. Pau Rabanal & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Vicente Tuesta, 2009. "Cointegrated TFP processes and international business cycles," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2009-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  13. John F. Geweke, 1998. "Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: inference, development, and communication," Staff Report 249, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  14. David K. Backus & Gregor W. Smith, 1993. "Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Dynamic Economies with Non-Traded Goods," Working Papers 1252, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  15. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2009. "Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open economy model," Working Paper Series WP-09-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  16. Ghironi, Fabio, 2006. "Macroeconomic interdependence under incomplete markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 428-450, December.
  17. James M. Nason and John H. Rogers, 2001. "The Present Value Model of the Current Account Has Been Rejected: Round Up the Usual Subjects," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 102, Society for Computational Economics.
  18. Balke, Nathan S. & Ma, Jun & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "The contribution of economic fundamentals to movements in exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-16.
  19. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  20. Lucio Sarno & Elvira Sojli, 2009. "The Feeble Link between Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Can We Blame the Discount Factor?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 437-442, 03.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:upd:utppwp:011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Yayoi Hatano)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.