IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Rollover risk, network structure and systemic financial crises

  • Kartik Anand
  • Prasanna Gai
  • Matteo Marsili

The breakdown of short-term funding markets was a key feature of the global financial crisis of 2007/8. Combining insights from the literature on global games and network growth, we develop a simple model that sheds light on how network topology interacts with the funding structure of financial institutions to determine system-wide crises. We show how the arrival of bad news about a financial institution leads others to lose confidence in it and how this, in turn, spreads across the entire interbank network. The rate of system-wide bank failure is rendered endogenous, depending crucially on both the rate at which bad news arrives and on the maturity of debt contracts. The conditions under which the financial system makes a sharp transition from a dense network of credit relations to a sparse network where credit freezes readily occur are characterized. Our results also emphasize the role of hysteresis – once broken, credit relations take a long time to re-establish as a result of common knowledge of the equilibrium. Our findings shed light on the nature of public policy responses both during and after the crisis.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2011-052.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2011-052.

as
in new window

Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-052
Contact details of provider: Postal: Spandauer Str. 1,10178 Berlin
Phone: +49-30-2093-5708
Fax: +49-30-2093-5617
Web page: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Gunda-Alexandra Detmers & Dieter Nautz, 2011. "The information content of central bank interest rate projections: Evidence from New Zealand," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-032, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  2. Akdeniz Duran, Esra & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Osipenko, Maria, 2012. "Difference based ridge and Liu type estimators in semiparametric regression models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 164-175.
  3. Johanna Kappus & Markus Reiß, 2010. "Estimation of the characteristics of a Lévy process observed at arbitrary frequency," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-015, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  4. Lu Lin & Feng Li & Lixing Zhu & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2011. "Mean Volatility Regressions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-003, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  5. Kartik Anand & Prasanna Gai & Matteo Marsili, 2011. "Rollover risk, network structure and systemic financial crises," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-052, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  6. Dirk Hofmann & Salmai Qari, 2011. "The Law of Attraction: Bilateral Search and Horizontal Heterogeneity," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-017, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  7. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-97, June.
  8. Kartik Anand & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Simon Brennan & Matthew Willison, 2011. "A Network Model of Financial System Resilience," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-051, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  9. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Martin Oehmke, 2010. "The Maturity Rat Race," NBER Working Papers 16607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Till Strohsal & Enzo Weber, 2011. "Mean-Variance Cointegration and the Expectations Hypothesis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-007, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  11. Morten L. Bech & Enghin Atalay, 2008. "The topology of the federal funds market," Staff Reports 354, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  12. Mechtenberg, Lydia & Münster, Johannes, 2012. "A strategic mediator who is biased in the same direction as the expert can improve information transmission," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 490-492.
  13. J. P. L. Hatchett & R. Kuhn, 2009. "Credit contagion and credit risk," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 373-382.
  14. Heike Belitz & Marius Clemens & Christian von Hirschhausen & Jens Schmidt-Ehmcke & Axel Werwatz & Petra Zloczysti, 2011. "An Indicator for National Systems of Innovation: Methodology and Application to 17 Industrialized Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1129, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  15. Xiaoliang Liu & Wei Xu & Martin Odening, 2011. "Can crop yield risk be globally diversified?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-018, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  16. Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-049, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  17. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
  18. Wolfgang Karl Hardle and Maria Osipenko, 2012. "Spatial Risk Premium on Weather Derivatives and Hedging Weather Exposure in Electricity," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
  19. Juliane Scheffel, 2011. "Identifying the Effect of Temporal Work Flexibility on Parental Time with Children," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-024, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  20. Raffaele Fiocco & Carlo Scarpa, 2011. "The Regulation of Interdependent Markets," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-046, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  21. David M. Frankel & Stephen Morris & Ady Pauzner, 2000. "Equilibrium Selection in Global Games with Strategic Complementarities," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1490, Econometric Society.
  22. Beresford, Alastair R. & Kübler, Dorothea & Preibusch, Sören, 2010. "Unwillingness to Pay for Privacy: A Field Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 5017, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  23. Fiocco, Raffaele & Gilli, Mario, 2014. "Bargaining and collusion in a regulatory relationship," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 466, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
  24. Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2008. "Network models and financial stability," Bank of England working papers 346, Bank of England.
  25. Juliane Scheffel, 2011. "How do Unusual Working Schedules Affect Social Life?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-025, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  26. Gai, Prasanna & Haldane, Andrew & Kapadia, Sujit, 2011. "Complexity, concentration and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 453-470.
  27. Shuzhuan Zheng & Lijian Yang & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2011. "A Confidence Corridor for Sparse Longitudinal Data Curves," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-002, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  28. Rong Liu & Lijian Yang & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2011. "Oracally Efficient Two-Step Estimation of Generalized Additive Model," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-016, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  29. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Vladimir Spokoiny & Weining Wang, 2011. "Local Quantile Regression," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-005, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  30. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "The changing nature of financial intermediation and the financial crisis of 2007-09," Staff Reports 439, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  31. Stefan Weber & Kay Giesecke, 2003. "Credit Contagion and Aggregate Losses," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 246, Society for Computational Economics.
  32. Stephan Stahlschmidt & Helmut Tausendteufel & Wolfgang K. Härdle, 2011. "Bayesian Networks and Sex-related Homicides," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-045, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  33. Cross, Michael & Fisher, Paul & Weeken, Olaf, 2010. "The Bank's balance sheet during the crisis," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 50(1), pages 34-42.
  34. Gara Afonso & Hyun Song Shin, 2011. "Precautionary Demand and Liquidity in Payment Systems," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 589-619, October.
  35. Markus Reiß, 2011. "Asymptotic equivalence and sufficiency for volatility estimation under microstructure noise," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-028, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  36. Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2011. "Sticky Information and Determinacy," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-006, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  37. Sigbert Klinke, 2011. "Developing web-based tools for the teaching of statistics: Our Wikis and the German Wikipedia," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-030, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  38. Markus Reiß & Yves Rozenholc & Charles A. Cuenod, 2011. "Pointwise adaptive estimation for quantile regression," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-029, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  39. Viral V. Acharya & Douglas Gale & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2010. "Rollover Risk and Market Freezes," NBER Working Papers 15674, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2009. "Complexity and Financial Panics," NBER Working Papers 14997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Brenda López Cabrera & Ostap Okhrin & Weining Wang, 2011. "Localising temperature risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-001, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  42. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Financial Regulation in a System Context," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 229-274.
  43. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2011. "Fear of Fire Sales, Illiquidity Seeking, and Credit Freezes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(2), pages 557-591.
  44. Esra Akdeniz Duran & Mengmeng Guo & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2011. "A Confidence Corridor for Expectile Functions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-004, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  45. Fehr, Dietmar & Schmid, Julia, 2014. "Exclusion in the all-pay auction: An experimental investigation," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Behavior SP II 2014-206, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
  46. Giesecke, Kay & Weber, Stefan, 2006. "Credit contagion and aggregate losses," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 741-767, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-052. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RDC-Team)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.