The information content of central bank interest rate projections: Evidence from New Zealand
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has been the first central bank that began to publish interest rate projections in order to improve its guidance of monetary policy. This paper provides new evidence on the role of interest rate projections for market expectations about future shortterm rates and the behavior of long-term interest rates in New Zealand. We find that interest rate projections up to four quarters ahead play a significant role for the RBNZs expectations management before the crisis, while their empirical relevance has decreased ever since. For interest rate projections at longer horizons, the information content seems to be only weak and partially destabilizing.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2011|
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Web page: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de
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- Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2006.
"Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections,"
NBER Working Papers
12638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2008. "Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 247-289 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2006. "Revealing the secrets of the temple: the value of publishing central bank interest rate projections," Working Paper Series 2006-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Guthrie, Graeme & Wright, Julian, 2000. "Open mouth operations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 489-516, October.
- Özer Karagedikli & Pierre L. Siklos, 2008. "Explaining Movements in the NZ Dollar - Central Bank Communication and the Surprise Element in Monetary Policy?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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