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The Norges Bank’s key rate projections and the news element of monetary policy: a wavelet based jump detection approach

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  • Lars Winkelmann

Abstract

This paper investigates the information content of the Norges Bank’s key rate projections. Wavelet spectrum estimates provide the basis for estimating jump probabilities of short- and long-term interest rates on monetary policy announcement days before and after the introduction of key rate projections. The behavior of short-term interest rates reveals that key rate projections have only little effects on market’s forecasting ability of current target rate changes. In contrast, longer-term interest rates indicate that the announcement of key rate projections has significantly reduced market participants’ revisions of the expected future policy path. Therefore, the announcement of key rate projections further improves central bank communication.

Suggested Citation

  • Lars Winkelmann, 2010. "The Norges Bank’s key rate projections and the news element of monetary policy: a wavelet based jump detection approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-062, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2010-062
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    File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2010-062.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kedan, Danielle & Stuart, Rebecca, 2014. "Central Bank Communications: A Comparative Study," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 89-104, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank communication; interest rate projections; wavelets; jump probabilities;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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