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Quantitative forward guidance and the predictability of monetary policy - A wavelet based jump detection approach -

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  • Lars Winkelmann

Abstract

The publication of a projected path of future policy decisions by central banks is a controversially debated method to improve monetary policy guidance. This paper suggests a new approach to evaluate the impact of the guidance strategy on the predictability of monetary policy. Using the example of Norway, the empirical investigation is based on jump probabilities of interest rates on central bank announcement days before and after the introduction of quantitative guidance. Within the standard semimartingale framework, we propose a new methodology to detect jumps. We derive a representation of the quadratic variation in terms of a wavelet spectrum. An adaptive threshold procedure on wavelet spectrum estimates aims at localizing jumps. Our main empirical result indicates that quantitative guidance significantly improves the predictability of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Lars Winkelmann, 2013. "Quantitative forward guidance and the predictability of monetary policy - A wavelet based jump detection approach -," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-016, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2013-016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lars winkelmann & Markus Bibinger & Tobias Linzert, 2013. "ECB monetary policy surprises: identification through cojumps in interest rates," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-038, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    2. Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra & Nautz, Dieter, 2013. "How Stale Central Bank Interest Rate Projections Affect Interest Rate Uncertainty," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79861, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Lassaâd Mbarek & Hardik A. Marfatia & Sonja Juko, 2018. "Time-varying Response of Treasury Yields to Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Tunisian Bond Market," Working Papers 1243, Economic Research Forum, revised 23 Oct 2018.
    4. Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra & Nautz, Dieter, 2014. "Stale forward guidance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 358-361.
    5. Poeschel, Friedrich, 2012. "Assortative matching through signals," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62061, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Winkelmann, Lars & Bibinger, Markus & Linzert, Tobias, 2013. "ECB monetary policy surprises: identification through cojumps in interest rates," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79721, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Linzert, Tobias & Winkelmann, Lars & Bibinger, Markus, 2014. "ECB monetary policy surprises: identification through cojumps in interest rates," Working Paper Series 1674, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank communication; interest rate projections; semimartingales; Locally Stationary Wavelet processes; jump detection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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