IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Can crop yield risk be globally diversified?


  • Xiaoliang Liu
  • Wei Xu
  • Martin Odening


In 2007 and 2008 world food markets observed a significant price boom. Crop failures simultaneously occurring in some of the world’s major production regions have been quoted as one factor among others for the price boom. Against this background, we analyse the stochasticity of crop yields in major production areas. The analysis is exemplified for wheat, which is one of the most important crops worldwide. Particular attention is given to the stochastic dependence of yields in different regions. Thereby we address the question of whether local fluctuations of yields can be smoothed by international agricultural trade, i.e. by global diversification. The analysis is based on the copula approach, which requires less restrictive assumptions compared with linear correlations. The use of copulas allows for a more reliable estimation of extreme yield shortfalls, which are of particular interest in this application. Our calculations reveal that a production shortfall, such as in 2007, is not a once in a lifetime event. Instead, from a statistical point of view, similar production conditions will occur every 15 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoliang Liu & Wei Xu & Martin Odening, 2011. "Can crop yield risk be globally diversified?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-018, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-018

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Beresford, Alastair R. & Kübler, Dorothea & Preibusch, Sören, 2012. "Unwillingness to pay for privacy: A field experiment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 25-27.
    2. Wolfgang Karl Hardle and Maria Osipenko, 2012. "Spatial Risk Premium on Weather Derivatives and Hedging Weather Exposure in Electricity," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    3. Rong Liu & Lijian Yang & Wolfgang K. Härdle, 2013. "Oracally Efficient Two-Step Estimation of Generalized Additive Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 108(502), pages 619-631, June.
    4. Akdeniz Duran, Esra & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Osipenko, Maria, 2012. "Difference based ridge and Liu type estimators in semiparametric regression models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 164-175.
    5. Till Strohsal & Enzo Weber, 2014. "Mean-variance cointegration and the expectations hypothesis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 1983-1997, November.
    6. Lones Smith, 2006. "The Marriage Model with Search Frictions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(6), pages 1124-1146, December.
    7. Fehr, Dietmar & Schmid, Julia, 2014. "Exclusion in the all-pay auction: An experimental investigation," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Behavior SP II 2014-206, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
    8. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Brenda López Cabrera & Ostap Okhrin & Weining Wang, 2016. "Localizing Temperature Risk," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(516), pages 1491-1508, October.
    9. Shuzhuan Zheng & Lijian Yang & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2011. "A Confidence Corridor for Sparse Longitudinal Data Curves," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-002, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    10. Lu Lin & Feng Li & Lixing Zhu & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2011. "Mean Volatility Regressions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-003, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    11. Esra Akdeniz Duran & Mengmeng Guo & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2011. "A Confidence Corridor for Expectile Functions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-004, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    12. Mechtenberg, Lydia & Münster, Johannes, 2012. "A strategic mediator who is biased in the same direction as the expert can improve information transmission," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 490-492.
    13. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Vladimir Spokoiny & Weining Wang, 2011. "Local Quantile Regression," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-005, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    crop yield risk; fully nested hierarchical Archimedean copulas (FNAC); price boom;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • Q19 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Other

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-018. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RDC-Team). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.