Extreme value models in a conditional duration intensity framework
The analysis of return series from financial markets is often based on the Peaks-over-threshold (POT) model. This model assumes independent and identically distributed observations and therefore a Poisson process is used to characterize the occurrence of extreme events. However, stylized facts such as clustered extremes and serial dependence typically violate the assumption of independence. In this paper we concentrate on an alternative approach to overcome these difficulties. We consider the stochastic intensity of the point process of exceedances over a threshold in the framework of irregularly spaced data. The main idea is to model the time between exceedances through an Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model, while the marks are still being modelled by generalized Pareto distributions. The main advantage of this approach is its capability to capture the short-term behaviour of extremes without involving an arbitrary stochastic volatility model or a prefiltration of the data, which certainly impacts the estimation. We make use of the proposed model to obtain an improved estimate for the Value at Risk. The model is then applied and illustrated to transactions data from Bayer AG, a blue chip stock from the German stock market index DAX.
|Date of creation:||May 2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Spandauer Str. 1,10178 Berlin|
Web page: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
- Cotter, John & Dowd, Kevin, 2006.
"Extreme spectral risk measures: An application to futures clearinghouse margin requirements,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3469-3485, December.
- Cotter, JOhn & Dowd, Kevin, 2006. "Extreme Spectral Risk Measures: An Application to Futures Clearinghouse Margin Requirements," MPRA Paper 3505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- John Cotter & Kevin Dowd, 2011. "Extreme Spectral Risk Measures: An Application to Futures Clearinghouse Margin Requirements," Papers 1103.5653, arXiv.org.
- John Cotter & Kevin Dowd, 2011. "Extreme Spectral Risk Measures: An Application to Futures Clearinghouse Margin Requirements," Working Papers 200516, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
- Luc Bauwens & Nikolaus Hautsch, 2006. "Stochastic Conditional Intensity Processes," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(3), pages 450-493.
- BAUWENS, Luc & HAUTSCH, Nikolaus, "undated". "Stochastic conditional intensity processes," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1937, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- repec:adr:anecst:y:2000:i:60:p:05 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:adr:anecst:y:2000:i:60:p:10 is not listed on IDEAS
- Meitz, Mika & Terasvirta, Timo, 2006. "Evaluating Models of Autoregressive Conditional Duration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 104-124, January.
- Meitz, Mika & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2004. "Evaluating models of autoregressive conditional duration," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 557, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 13 Dec 2004.
- Joachim Grammig & Kai-Oliver Maurer, 2000. "Non-monotonic hazard functions and the autoregressive conditional duration model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(1), pages 16-38.
- Paul Embrechts, 2009. "Linear Correlation and EVT: Properties and Caveats," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 7(1), pages 30-39, Winter.
- Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
- Alfonso Dufour & Robert F Engle, 2000. "The ACD Model: Predictability of the Time Between Concecutive Trades," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2000-05, Henley Business School, Reading University. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-022. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RDC-Team)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.