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Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis

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  • Alexander Meyer-Gohde

Abstract

Imposing the natural rate hypothesis (NRH) can dramatically alter the determinacy bounds on monetary policy by closing the output gap in the long run. I show that the hypothesis eliminates any role for the output gap in determinacy and renders the conditions for determinacy identical for all conforming supply equations. Specializing further to IS demand, determinacy depends only on the parameters in the interest rate rule and a pure forward or backward-looking inflation target is inconsistent with determinacy. Monetary policy that embodies the Taylor principle with respect to contemporaneous inflation delivers a determinate equilibrium in all models that satisfy the NRH.

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File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2011-049.pdf
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Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2011-049.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-049
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Keywords: Time Series; Natural rate hypothesis; Phillips curve; Taylor Principle;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
  • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
  • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
  • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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  12. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Brenda López Cabrera & Ostap Okhrin & Weining Wang, 2011. "Localising temperature risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-001, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
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  14. Fiocco, Raffaele & Scarpa, Carlo, 2014. "The regulation of markets with interdependent demands," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 1-12.
  15. Lu Lin & Feng Li & Lixing Zhu & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2011. "Mean Volatility Regressions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-003, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  16. Esra Akdeniz Duran & Mengmeng Guo & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2011. "A Confidence Corridor for Expectile Functions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-004, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
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  18. Markus Reiß, 2011. "Asymptotic equivalence and sufficiency for volatility estimation under microstructure noise," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-028, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
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  20. Sigbert Klinke, 2011. "Developing web-based tools for the teaching of statistics: Our Wikis and the German Wikipedia," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-030, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  21. Dirk Hofmann & Salmai Qari, 2011. "The Law of Attraction: Bilateral Search and Horizontal Heterogeneity," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-017, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  22. Xiaoliang Liu & Wei Xu & Martin Odening, 2011. "Can crop yield risk be globally diversified?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-018, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  23. Heike Belitz & Marius Clemens & Christian von Hirschhausen & Jens Schmidt-Ehmcke & Axel Werwatz & Petra Zloczysti, 2011. "An Indicator for National Systems of Innovation - Methodology and Application to 17 Industrialized Countries," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-036, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  24. Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2011. "Sticky Information and Determinacy," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-006, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  25. Juliane Scheffel, 2011. "Identifying the Effect of Temporal Work Flexibility on Parental Time with Children," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-024, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  26. Markus Reiß & Yves Rozenholc & Charles A. Cuenod, 2011. "Pointwise adaptive estimation for quantile regression," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-029, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
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