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Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis

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  • Alexander Meyer-Gohde

Abstract

Imposing the natural rate hypothesis (NRH) can dramatically alter the determinacy bounds on monetary policy by closing the output gap in the long run. I show that the hypothesis eliminates any role for the output gap in determinacy and renders the conditions for determinacy identical for all conforming supply equations. Specializing further to IS demand, determinacy depends only on the parameters in the interest rate rule and a pure forward or backward-looking inflation target is inconsistent with determinacy. Monetary policy that embodies the Taylor principle with respect to contemporaneous inflation delivers a determinate equilibrium in all models that satisfy the NRH.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-049, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-049
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Ray-Bing & Chen, Ying & Härdle, Wolfgang K., 2014. "TVICA—Time varying independent component analysis and its application to financial data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 95-109.
    2. Nikolaus Hautsch & Julia Schaumburg & Melanie Schienle, 2015. "Financial Network Systemic Risk Contributions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 685-738.
    3. Anand, Kartik & Gai, Prasanna & Marsili, Matteo, 2012. "Rollover risk, network structure and systemic financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1088-1100.
    4. Gregor Heyne & Michael Kupper & Christoph Mainberger, 2011. "Minimal Supersolutions of BSDEs with Lower Semicontinuous Generators," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-067, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    5. Aurélie Bertrand & Christian Hafner, 2014. "On heterogeneous latent class models with applications to the analysis of rating scores," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 307-330, February.
    6. Mammen, Enno & Rothe, Christoph & Schienle, Melanie, 2016. "Semiparametric Estimation With Generated Covariates," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(05), pages 1140-1177, October.
    7. Ulrich Horst & Michael Kupper & Andrea Macrina & Christoph Mainberger, 2011. "Continuous Equilibrium under Base Preferences and Attainable Initial Endowments," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-082, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    8. Sven Tischer & Lutz Hildebrandt, 2011. "Linking corporate reputation and shareholder value using the publication of reputation rankings," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-065, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    9. Gökhan Cebiroğlu & Ulrich Horst, 2011. "Optimal Display of Iceberg Orders," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-057, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    10. Luc Bauwens & Christian M. Hafner & Diane Pierret, 2013. "Multivariate Volatility Modeling Of Electricity Futures," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 743-761, August.
    11. Patrick Cheridito & Ulrich Horst & Michael Kupper & Traian A. Pirvu, 2016. "Equilibrium Pricing in Incomplete Markets Under Translation Invariant Preferences," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 41(1), pages 174-195, February.
    12. Wolfgang Härdle & Maria Osipenko, 2011. "Pricing Chinese rain: a multi-site multi-period equilibrium pricing model for rainfall derivatives," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-055, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    13. Felix Naujokat & Ulrich Horst, 2011. "When to Cross the Spread: Curve Following with Singular Control," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-053, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    14. Bocart, Fabian Y.R.P. & Hafner, Christian M., 2012. "Econometric analysis of volatile art markets," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3091-3104.
    15. Raffaele Fiocco, 2012. "Competition and regulation with product differentiation," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 287-307, December.
    16. Alena MyÅ¡iÄ ková & Song Song & Piotr Majer & Peter N.C. Mohr & Hauke R. Heekeren & Wolfgang K. Härdle, 2011. "Risk Patterns and Correlated Brain Activities. Multidimensional statistical analysis of fMRI data with application to risk patterns," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-085, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    17. Gökhan Cebiro˜glu & Ulrich Horst, 2011. "Optimal liquidation in dark pools," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-058, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    18. Dorothee Schneider, 2011. "The Labor Share: A Review of Theory and Evidence," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-069, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    19. Nikolaus Hautsch & Ruihong Huang, 2011. "Limit Order Flow, Market Impact and Optimal Order Sizes: Evidence from NASDAQ TotalView-ITCH Data," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-056, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time Series; Natural rate hypothesis; Phillips curve; Taylor Principle;

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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