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Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis

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Listed author(s):
  • Alexander Meyer-Gohde

Abstract

Imposing the natural rate hypothesis (NRH) can dramatically alter the determinacy bounds on monetary policy by closing the output gap in the long run. I show that the hypothesis eliminates any role for the output gap in determinacy and renders the conditions for determinacy identical for all conforming supply equations. Specializing further to IS demand, determinacy depends only on the parameters in the interest rate rule and a pure forward or backward-looking inflation target is inconsistent with determinacy. Monetary policy that embodies the Taylor principle with respect to contemporaneous inflation delivers a determinate equilibrium in all models that satisfy the NRH.

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File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2011-049.pdf
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Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2011-049.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-049
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Keywords: Time Series; Natural rate hypothesis; Phillips curve; Taylor Principle;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
  • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
  • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
  • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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  16. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Brenda López Cabrera & Ostap Okhrin & Weining Wang, 2011. "Localising temperature risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-001, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
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  24. Xiaoliang Liu & Wei Xu & Martin Odening, 2011. "Can crop yield risk be globally diversified?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-018, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  25. Juliane Scheffel, 2011. "How do Unusual Working Schedules Affect Social Life?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-025, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
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