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Young and Out: An Application of a Prospects-Based Concept of Social Exclusion

  • Raaum, Oddbjørn

    ()

    (The Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research)

  • Rogstad, Jon

    ()

    (Institute for Social Research)

  • Røed, Knut

    ()

    (The Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research)

  • Westlie, Lars

    ()

    (The Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research)

We develop a forward-looking empirical concept of social exclusion based on the estimated transition probabilities from a random effects multinominal logit-model. Youths are considered socially excluded if they are currently outside school/work and have a low predicted probability of re-entering in the near future. Implemented on extraordinary rich event history data of compulsory school graduates, we estimate social exclusion among Norwegian youths and find that social exclusion is (i) non-cyclical; (ii) rare among teen-agers, except for immigrant children and individuals with a disadvantaged family background; (iii) more prevalent among young adults in their early twenties; and (iv) independent of gender

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File URL: http://www.sv.uio.no/econ/english/research/unpublished-works/working-papers/pdf-files/2005/Memo-17-2005.pdf
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Paper provided by Oslo University, Department of Economics in its series Memorandum with number 17/2005.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: 30 May 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2005_017
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway
Phone: 22 85 51 27
Fax: 22 85 50 35
Web page: http://www.oekonomi.uio.no/indexe.html
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  19. Stephen V. Cameron & James J. Heckman, 1998. "Life Cycle Schooling and Dynamic Selection Bias: Models and Evidence for Five Cohorts of American Males," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(2), pages 262-333, April.
  20. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1992. "Loss of Skill during Unemployment and the Persistence of Employment Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1371-91, November.
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