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Young and out: An application of a prospects-based concept of social exclusion

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  • Raaum, Oddbjørn
  • Rogstad, Jon
  • Røed, Knut
  • Westlie, Lars

Abstract

We develop a forward-looking empirical concept of social exclusion based on the estimated transition probabilities from a random effects multinominal Logit-model. Youths are considered socially excluded if they are currently outside school/work and have a low predicted probability of re-entering in the near future. Implemented on extraordinary rich event-history data of compulsory school graduates, we estimate social exclusion among Norwegian youths and find that social exclusion propensity is (i) non-cyclical; (ii) much more prevalent among young adults in their early twenties than among teenagers; (iii) strongly dependent on family background; and (iv) independent of gender.

Suggested Citation

  • Raaum, Oddbjørn & Rogstad, Jon & Røed, Knut & Westlie, Lars, 2009. "Young and out: An application of a prospects-based concept of social exclusion," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 173-187, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceco:v:38:y:2009:i:1:p:173-187
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bratsberg, Bernt & Raaum, Oddbjørn & Røed, Knut, 2011. "Educating Children of Immigrants: Closing the Gap in Norwegian Schools," IZA Discussion Papers 6138, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. Ekhaugen, Tyra, 2005. "Extracting the causal component from the intergenerational correlation in unemployment," Memorandum 21/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    3. Tyra Ekhaugen, 2009. "Extracting the causal component from the intergenerational correlation in unemployment," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 22(1), pages 97-113, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social exclusion Educational attainment School to work transition Youth unemployment Duration dependence Family background;

    JEL classification:

    • I29 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Other

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